Predicting the Off-Ball LB Market for the Broncos

Despite fanbase's annual begging for GM John Elway and the Denver Broncos to use high resources on the off-ball linebacker position, whether that be in free agency or the NFL Draft, the Broncos have held fast at the position most seasons with only minor acquisitions.

Last year, as a prime example, many linked Denver to free-agent linebackers such as C.J. Mosley or Kwon Alexander, as well as Devin White and Devin Bush in the draft. None would wind up as Broncos, as Denver rolled with a group of former day-three and undrafted free agents to fill in their needs at linebacker.

Let's take the temperature of the LB market for the Broncos. First, a diagnostic.

Linebacker Coverage Woes, A Recent Trend

This potentially has led to some issues with Denver’s ability to cover space in the middle of the field. A symptom of the Wade Phillips’ defense, tight ends and running backs were often the best way to attack Denver through the air as opposed to testing Denver’s cornerbacks.

This issue was only exasperated during the Vance Joseph/Joe Woods era where Denver’s inability to cover the tight end became a week-to-week headache for the team and fans alike.

Under Vic Fangio, the Broncos’ defense did see a marked improvement versus tight ends last season, but still gave up a good chunk to opponents at the position, thanks in large part to four combined games vs. Travis Kelce and Darren Waller, in particular.

Raw Stats vs. Analytics Covering Tight Ends

According to Pro Football Reference, Denver’s defense versus tight ends surrendered 129 targets (t-6th most), 90 receptions (6th most), 974 yards (3rd most), but only three touchdowns (tied for the second-least in the NFL). No doubt, Denver’s incredible red zone defense helped tremendously in limiting opponents from finding pay-dirt for all opposing players, not just tight ends.

But the ‘bend don’t break’ was bent often against tight ends last year. Denver was close to middle-of-the-pack in targets, receptions, and touchdowns through the air versus wide receivers and running backs, but the data does suggest opposing teams looked to target tight ends to move the ball in the passing game.

Despite giving up yardage to tight ends, Football Outsiders’ DVOA does not view Denver’s raw yardage and reception totals to be damning in their ability to cover tight ends (nor slot receivers) over the slot, with Denver ranking as the sixth-best defense versus tight ends (and slot receivers) in 2019. Again, Denver can and did live with what they had at linebacker in 2019 but the team does seem at least interested in adding more speed and coverage upside at linebacker if the opportunity presents itself this offseason.

Fangio Indicates He Wants Better in Coverage

While Denver did not completely struggle versus tight ends or slot weapons in 2019, Fangio’s recent comments about playing more six-DB looks to ease some coverage burden on the linebackers hints at a desire to add more speed and coverage upside to the defense to combat the offensive trend toward the spread pass attack in today’s NFL.

#Broncos Fangio told me they will look to upgrade at ILB, but it was a nuanced answer. Said chance they would play with more 6 DBs. So that would ease some of the coverage issues. CB is priority in draft and free agency. #Denver7
— Troy Renck (@TroyRenck) February 25, 2020

Broncos Can Get by With LBs On-Roster

With Todd Davis and Alexander Johnson both being extremely equipped to playing in the box, stacking and shedding blockers, filling gaps, and making plays at or near the line of scrimmage, the Broncos’ interior defense saw a massive boost after the starting LB duo solidified their roles last season, replacing the limited Josey Jewell and the horrible play from Corey Nelson to start the season.

Still, Denver had some issues in coverage as while both Davis and Alexander are strong and really good in the box, neither offer the movement skills or coverage ability to hold up consistently in space in the passing game without being schemed around to cover deficiencies. It can be done and was done as well, but it's still something perhaps Fangio and the Broncos may prefer not to do, especially in a division with so many good receiving tight end options.

Fangio's Scheme Will Put LBs in Space

Despite both players’ limitations overall in matching up in space, especially lining up in the slot versus tight ends, wide receivers, and running backs, the defense still called for it more often than one would have hoped. According to Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, it was Davis who was often tasked with the ill-fit of lining up over the slot in coverage for the Broncos’ defense.

As one of five different linebackers last season with over 100 snaps in the slot, including Carolina’s Shaq Tompson, Seattle’s K.J. Wright and Mychal Kendricks, and Tampa Bay’s Lavonte David, Davis was put in a position that didn’t truly match what he does best. Davis is a vastly underappreciated player for the Denver defense, but the type of linebacker you want covering the slot he is not.

Davis has value in today’s league, set to make $6 million for the Broncos in 2020 after exercising his option which includes $1 million in dead cap and $5 million base salary according to Spotrac. In a league where a worse against the run and just slightly better in coverage linebacker in former Green Bay Packer Blake Martinez is looking for $10 million per year on the open market (WOOF), Davis’ current contract is at least a solid value if not bordering on a bargain.

Unfortunately, what Davis does well on defense has some overlap to what Johnson brings to the table as well. They occupy a similar niche. Given this reality, it makes some sense that the Broncos are connected to some free agent linebackers in free agency.

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Two High-Profile LB Targets Linked to Denver

As the Denver Post's Ryan O’Halloran reported coming out of the NFL Combine, expect the Broncos’ to target one of Cleveland Browns’ Joe Schobert and Los Angeles Rams’ Corey Littleton. While both have had their issues in the run game taking on blockers, filling gaps, and finishing tackles, both offer athleticism in pursuit and coverage the Broncos’ defense simply does not currently have on the roster.

With both expecting to take home a contract of around $50 million over four years, this would be a large deviance from the Broncos’ recent trend of not emphasizing the linebacker position. However, with a cheap quarterback on a rookie contract, and saving some cash trading for A.J. Bouye and his $13.5M cap hit in comparison to what is expected to be a mind-blowingly pricy cornerback market, perhaps Denver can allocate some of those savings and pay a LB that can help provide coverage from the position Denver hasn’t had on their roster in some time.

Denver could also move on from Davis to save $5M to help foot some of that bill for one of Schobert or Littleton, if they so choose. The flexibility of the contract is key and means Denver won’t be caught with their pants down if they had moved on from Davis by declining his option, only to not sign their preferred target(s) at linebacker.

However, at a $5M cost, Davis is a bargain and should garner trade interest rather than flat out cutting the defensive signal-caller. Much like with Mosely and Alexander in the 2019 free agency cycle, the Broncos may find the market for one of the top linebackers to become overinflated quickly, rendering the best path forward to look elsewhere or simply stand pat.

Denver does have cap space, but that doesn’t mean they have to spend it. With the uncertainty of the cap structure surrounding the impending new CBA deal on top of a franchise that might be sold sooner rather than later, frugality may very well be practiced by the Broncos. Denver can stand pat with Davis and Alexander starting, with Jewell as depth, which would allow the team to use one of its day two to early day three picks on a linebacker and be ‘fine’.

Former Fangio LB Could Provide Better Bargain Option

If indeed Schobert and Littleton price themselves out of Denver’s comfortable pay range, a name that is continuing to gain steam is former Chicago Bears’ linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski. Despite being relegated to a backup role in Chicago behind Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith — both of whom saw over 100 snaps at slot in 2018 under Vic Fangio — Kwiatkowski has been connected to Denver more and more by insiders such as Benjamin Allbright.

Kwiatkowski does not appear to be a massive upgrade, if it all, to what Denver currently has on the roster but his familiarity with Fangio, his youth (26 years old), and relative value in comparison to other linebackers on the market seem to make some sense. At worst, Kwiatkoski would bring in depth and competition to a room that could use some talent infusion.

A low-risk signing with Fangio’s approval given his track record at linebacker seems far from a poor idea for Elway and the Broncos to pursue in Free Agency.

Draft Options Denver could Turn Towards at LB

If not in free agency, Denver should have plenty of options with one of their first five picks in the top-100 of the draft. While data suggests it is not a wise investment to use first-round picks on LB, day two is a ‘sweet spot’ for finding such talent.

Unless Denver miraculously acquires Clemson's Isaiah Simmons (a LB/DB hybrid who could dominate over the slot like a Derwin James), Denver should not take a LB in the first round such as Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray or Louisiana States’ Patrick Queen. Instead of projected day-two LBs should be targeted such as Texas Tech’s Jordyn Brooks, Oregon’s Troy Dye, Ohio State’s Malik Harrison, Appalachian State’s Akeem Davis-Gaither, Wyoming’s Logan Wilson, and Mississippi State’s Willie Gay, Jr.

Also, keep in mind Fangio’s comments about playing more six defensive back sets in 2020 to help negate some LB coverage woes. LB/DB hybrids such as Southern Illinois’ Jeremy Chinn, Lenoire-Ryone’s Kyle Dugger, Colorado’s Davion Taylor as well as edge/linebacker hybrids in Wisconsin’s Zack Baun, Minnesota’s Carter Coughlin, and Michigan’s Josh Uche, could all be very intriguing options day two for Denver.

Market Likely Dictates Denver’s Action at LB

The Broncos are reportedly in the market for an LB upgrade. Given the usage of LBs lined up over slot in Fangio’s defense, on top of his remarks about looking to upgrade the position and utilize more DB-heavy sets, it seems in reviewing the 2019 season, Denver did not feel like they had enough coverage upside in the back seven this season.

Such high-dollar options such as Littleton or Schobert have been tossed around but do not sleep on Fangio reuniting with Kwiakowski as a more cost-effective option.

Even if Denver fails to find an option they like in free agency, it seems probable Denver could easily find a solid LB fairly early in the draft. While likely more of a rotational player year one, a LB with better coverage chops and movement skills to come in during obvious passing downs and be groomed into an eventual starter, might be both the best long-term option and cost-effective option.

While Fangio has talked about upgrading the LB position, this was tossed around exactly one year ago as well with the Broncos linked to the top LBs in both free agency and the 2019 draft. Denver does have more capital in terms of cap space and draft picks to make it happen this year but there are no guarantees the team will take action.

Given the ample options Denver has available, perhaps Elway will finally acquiesce to the wishes of much of Broncos Country and address the LB position. To what extent remains to be seen, but it's a safe bet to expect some fresh blood in the LB room come 2020 either way.

Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.

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