Sean Payton's Broncos Lack Killer Instinct & That's a Problem

The Denver Broncos' playoff destiny has been in their hands for the past two weeks. All Denver has needed was one more win to secure itself a playoff spot.

After back-to-back losses to the Los Angeles Chargers and the Cincinnati Bengals, the Broncos now find themselves in a must-win situation entering Week 18 if they wish to make the playoffs. And while the Kansas City Chiefs are expected to rest many of their starters, that doesn't mean the Broncos should take anything for granted.

Of course, this was a rebuilding year for the Broncos, but one thing that has become evident in recent weeks is the team's inability to close the deal — as in, showing they can wrap up a playoff spot when its destiny is in its hands.

The Broncos' approach over the past two weeks has been less about playing to win and more about playing not to lose. Factors ranging from abandoning what's working to not being more aggressive with game management have hindered the Broncos.

Case in point was Sean Payton's decision to kick the extra point after Bo Nix's touchdown pass to Marvin Mims Jr. with eight seconds left in the game. Some might say there was no guarantee that the Broncos would succeed in converting a two-point attempt, but the same could be said for an extra-point kick, in which misses don't happen often, but it occurs enough to know it's not a sure thing.

The point about going for two is it would have telegraphed that Payton is willing to take chances to get wins. The top head coaches in the NFL do this frequently. They don't always get the result, but their willingness to take chances is part of what makes them successful.

If Payton had gone for two and the Broncos don't get it, he can at least defend the decision by saying that playing for overtime is playing not to lose. Better to play to win than play not to lose.

Some might question whether coaches need to be on the hot seat for the Broncos' inability to close out, but if there's any change, it will only happen if somebody is hired for another job.

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In the case of defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, he's done well with the personnel given to him, taking what many saw as a Broncos weak point and turning it into a strength. The Broncos defense is not elite, but a good unit capable of great games. After all, entering the season, many thought the defense would rank toward the bottom of the league.

If Joseph gets a head-coaching job somewhere, that would be the only instance of possible changes to major coaching positions. Everyone else should be safe going into 2024, even if the Broncos miss the playoffs.

Next season, however, could be a different story if the Broncos don't do a better job of closing the deal. It's not just about a playoff trip; it's about finishing games with a willingness to take some chances to win, especially against tougher teams.

2025 will be Year 2 for Bo Nix and Payton can't simply fall back on calling screens and short passes. If Nix is to show he can be the QB to build around, he must show what he can do on intermediate and long routes. That means Payton needs to adjust the playbook accordingly.

The Broncos need some upgrades on the roster on both sides of the ball, but another key will be how certain younger players develop and progress in 2025. Outside linebacker Nik Bonitto breaking out this year and Marvin Mims Jr. hitting his stride as a receiver are positive developments, but next year will be about whether the likes of pass rusher Jonah Elliss and wideouts Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele can take that next step.

The biggest question will be whether Nix takes the next step with his development. Payton's fate is likely tied to Nix's ability to show he can be the quarterback to build around. Nix has shown enough to warrant a second year, but he'll need to do more to warrant a third year.

The Takeaway

The good news is the Broncos get one more week of football and can still make the playoffs. But regardless of what happens against the Chiefs at Mile High, the Broncos must show in 2025 that they can be a consistent playoff contender — and to do that, Payton must show he and his staff can close the deal more often than not.

A world-beating team might not be in the cards but a consistent playoff contender who may enter the Super Bowl conversation is possible. To do that, Payton has to show a willingness to play to win and, thus, have the best shot of closing the deal.

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