Cleveland Browns' odds at the first overall draft pick surge after loss to the Bears

The Cleveland Browns latest fiasco included a three interception game from rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders, and it could've been worse. With no touchdowns all afternoon long, the Browns got stumped 31-3 on the road by the Chicago Bears.

Sanders, with a 1-3 mark as a starter and who’s already been named the starter for the rest of the way, had his worst outing as a pro one week after his best performance to date. This means there could be no certainty yet regarding the quarterback position for this team in 2026 and beyond.

Now, after the loss against the Bears gives them three in a row for the third time this year, the 3-11 Browns might end up with a high enough pick to select any quarterback available in next year’s draft, putting a quick end to the Dillon Gabriel/Shedeur Sanders era.

According to ESPN Analytics, the Browns now have the second best odds at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 19.9 percent, trailing only the Las Vegas Raiders -- a team Cleveland already beat -- with a 39.0 percent.

After the Browns, ESPN analytics gives the Tennessee Titans the next best odds, at 19.1 percent, followed by the New York Giants, at 16.4. All four of those franchises have already locked up a Top-10 draft pick, no matter what happens the rest of the season, according to ESPN Analytics. Cleeland fell to Tennessee in Week 14.

The Browns are locked into a top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and now have the second-best chance (19.9%) to get the No. 1 pick, according to ESPN Analytics, only trailing the Las Vegas Raiders (39.0%).
— Daniel Oyefusi (@DanielOyefusi) December 15, 2025

This year’s newly appointed Heisman Trophy winner, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, has been projected by many as the best quarterback available for next April’s NFL Draft.

But, with the Raiders also needing help desperately at the most important position in sports, finishing the season with the second overall pick might not be enough to secure his services. Then again, Cleveland might decide that Sanders is worth a shot as a full-time starter with a whole offseason running the first team, and opt to surround the Colorado product with better talent, as opposed to replacing him.

Among the teams that could also be on the lookout for a quarterback among the first few selections are the New York Jets, currently projected by ESPN Analytics with the fifth best odds at 5.3 percent. ESPN runs 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season on its model to determine the odds for each team regarding the upcoming NFL Draft.

In addition to a Top-10 pick, Cleveland also owns a second pick down the road in the first round, courtesy of a draft dray trade from 2025 with the Jacksonville Jaguars.