BucsGameday's 2023 First Round NFL Mock Draft 1.0
With less than a week until the 2023 NFL Draft kicks off, it's time to throw my hat in the ring and try to predict where the top prospects will land.
In terms of the Buccaneers, most fans seem to believe that the team's GM, Jason Licht, would be wise to invest in the trenches. I tend to agree. But the best decision-makers in this league understand the importance of value. And sometimes, the best value that can be had doesn't coincide with a glaring position of need on the roster.
In this first-round mock draft, for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it most certainly does.
1. Carolina Panthers | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama
Bryce Young's natural feel for playing the quarterback position is special. He's extremely mobile, he can make all the throws, he can make all the reads, and his instincts are extremely sharp. The only thing working against the former Heisman trophy winner is his size, which is a gamble the Carolina Panthers will be happy to make if it gives them a chance at obtaining the competent quarterback play they so desperately need.
2. Houston Texans | C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State
There's plenty of chatter that Houston may pass on a QB here. I'm not buying it. C.J. Stroud is a polished prospect who is poised, accurate, and more than capable of leading a dynamic passing attack at the NFL level. The Texans are in dire need of some stability at the quarterback position to accelerate their rebuild, and Stroud has the tools and makeup to be the franchise cornerstone they've been looking for.
3. Arizona Cardinals | Will Anderson | Edge | Alabama
Assuming the Cardinals don't move back, they should be thrilled to have their choice of the best defensive line prospects this draft class has to offer. Will Anderson was a dominant force for the Crimson Tide. His speed, power, and relentless motor should make him an immediate disruptor at the NFL level.
4. Indianapolis Colts | Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida
Anthony Richardson may very well be the most athletic quarterback prospect we've ever seen. He's also built like a linebacker with a rocket launcher for an arm. What Richardson lacks is consistency, both in terms of his physical execution and his decision-making. But his upside is as tantalizing as it gets, and for a QB-needy team like the Colts, this is an investment worth making.
5. Seattle Seahawks | Jalen Carter | IDL | Georgia
Jalen Carter's physical dominance in the college ranks cannot be disputed. His size, aggression, and production screams future All-Pro. Unfortunately, some legal trouble and questions about his character have plagued his stock leading up to the draft. Is this just annual draft gossip? Or is it reflective of legitimate concern from NFL decision makers? We'll soon find out. But Pete Carroll has a lot of confidence in his ability to get the most out of players, even those who may have been taken off other GM's draft boards altogether.
6. Detroit Lions | Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois
Having just traded away Jeff Odukah, I think grabbing one of the top corners is the play for Detroit. Devon Witherspoon fits all the criteria that Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes covet. He is a highly aggressive player with the tools to develop into a major difference maker on the outside. When targeting Witherspoon in coverage last season, quarterbacks registered a QBR of just 5.2. He's rock solid in coverage and loves to lay the lumber when supporting the run. He's the type of player who can set the tone for the rest of the secondary to follow.
7. Las Vegas Raiders | Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon
The Raiders need help in a lot of different areas, especially on the defensive side. Gonzalez is an advanced, and extremely well-rounded cornerback prospect. He's smooth, athletic, and extremely versatile. These traits should make him an immediate impact player at the next level.
8. Atlanta Falcons | Tyree Wilson | Edge | Texas Tech
Tyree Wilson has all the physical tools that NFL scouts look for when evaluating defensive end prospects. Despite adding a lot of talent to their defense this offseason, drafting a long, athletically gifted prospect (with an extremely high ceiling) like Tyree Wilson would add another dimension to an already much improved defensive line group.
9. Chicago Bears | Paris Johnson Jr. | OT | Ohio State
After already securing some offensive weapons to help support Justin Fields, it's time for Bears' GM, Ryan Poles, to add some reinforcements to the trenches. I can't think of a better way to achieve this than by adding arguably the best tackle available in this year's draft. If Fields is going to develop into the NFL passer I believe he can become, he's going to need a clean pocket to do so. Paris Johnson Jr. has all the tools needed to step in as a plug-and-play left tackle from day one, which will help the Bears put their young quarterback in a position to be successful.
10. Philadelphia Eagles | Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas
Based on his draft history, I'm sure many Eagles fans will scoff at the suggestion that Howie Roseman would even consider drafting a running back in the top-10. But I believe it's Roseman's willingness to make decisions contrary to conventional wisdom, combined with having two first-round picks in his pocket, that would allow to him to make this type of decision. Without considering positional value, as far as I'm concerned, Bijan Robinson is the most talented, and proven prospect in this class. The Eagles are in a perfect position to make this 'luxury pick', and doing so would immediately take their offense — yes, the same one that made it to the Super Bowl last year — to new heights.
11. Tennessee Titans | Will Levis | QB | Kentucky
Tennessee is in a tough spot. They're coming off a 7-10 season, and have roughly $52 million committed to Ryan Tannehill (34 years old) and Derrick Henry (29 years old) for 2023. Whether they're looking to compete this year or start rebuilding for the future, the Titans need to add talent to this football team. If Will Levis is still on the board here, I think it makes sense for first-year GM, Ran Carthon, to pull the trigger and land a potential franchise quarterback prospect — outside of the top-10, no less. Levis is a dual-threat quarterback, similar to Tannehill, but he projects to be a much more talented passer at the NFL level. Levis' experience running an NFL system at Kentucky is an added bonus.
12. Houston Texans | Nolan Smith | Edge | Georgia
If the Texans decide to add their next franchise signal caller with their first pick — as they should — then using this selection to add a difference maker on the other side of the ball makes a lot of sense. Smith is an explosive edge rusher, who ran an absurd 4.38 40-yard dash and jumped 41.5 in the vertical testing. The knock on Smith is that he's a bit slight for his position, and he's had his fair share of injuries. But in addition to Smith's outstanding athleticism, he's also a natural leader. If he can put on some weight and stay healthy, the sky is the limit.
13. New York Jets | Peter Skoronski | OL | Northwestern
Skoronski is a true technician. Though he has the ability to come in and play either tackle spot as a rookie, some scouts believe — partially due to his 32.5' arms — that his future would be brightest if he were to move over to guard in the NFL. Skoronski is a polished prospect, with a clear understanding of how to maximize his frame, hands, and balance in order to be successful. The tape doesn't lie, and when you evaluate Skoronski's performance at the collegiate level, it's easy to see why he is widely considered to be one of the safest picks in this year's draft.
14. New England Patriots | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State
I expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to join a long line of Buckeye receivers whose skills and production in college have translated seamlessly to the NFL. He is a masterful route-runner, with great hands, quickness, and an underrated ability to make plays down the field. The Patriots need to add talent to their collection of pass-catchers, and Smith-Njigba is the best receiver available in this draft. If the Patriots really want to see what they have in Mac Jones, they need to give him a legitimate threat to throw to.
15. Green Bay Packers | Dalton Kincaid | TE | Utah
There's no question that this is the best tight end class in recent memory. Of the top prospects available, arguments could be made for several different tight ends to be first off the board. Kincaid's route-running looks effortless and smooth, and his ability to use his length, or contort his body to secure catches, is special. These traits combined with his size and athleticism, lead me to believe he will be the first TE drafted. Kincaid's skillset would immediately provide a reliable safety valve for Jordan Love, which would help to ease his transition from Aaron Rodgers' backup, to full-time starter in Green Bay.
16. Washington Commanders | Joey Porter Jr. | CB | Penn State
Joey Porter Jr. is an excellent press-man corner with great size. He has more than enough speed to get the job done, but his length, instincts, and physicality are what make him such an intriguing prospect at the next level. The Commanders could go a number of different directions with this pick, but acquiring Porter Jr. would not only address a position of need but also the type of competitor that head coach, Ron Rivera, wants in his locker room.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers | Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee
Darnell Wright is a massive human being with a track record of obliterating defenders in both pass protection and the run game. I'm sure he will be the highest-rated tackle on numerous teams' draft boards and for good reason. Should it come to fruition, this selection would offer tremendous value for the Steelers. Wright had a standout senior season for the Volunteers in 2022, where he dominated an impressive cast of SEC edge rushers en route to allowing just one sack all year. Some of his best tape includes dominant performances over Alabama's Will Anderson and LSU's B.J. Ojulari. Some experts believe Wright is best suited to play on the right side, or even guard, but I think he has what it takes to develop as a left tackle.
18. Detroit Lions | Calijah Kancey | IDL | Pittsburgh
With just a couple of seasons under his belt, Lions' GM, Brad Holmes, has done a remarkable job turning the Lions around. He's accomplished this through some timely trades, savvy signings in free agency, and by identifying high-value opportunities in the draft. As a result, he's in a position to focus on the best players available in this draft. Having already added Devon Witherspoon to the secondary, I could see Holmes shifting his focus to the defensive trenches with this pick. Calijah Kancey is an undersized, but highly intriguing IDL prospect. His explosive athleticism was on display this past season at Pitt, and those traits translated into impressive testing numbers at the NFL combine.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia
It's no secret that the Buccaneers need to add reinforcements to both their offensive and defensive lines. In this scenario, one of the best offensive tackles in the draft falls right into their lap. It's hard to envision a better scenario for Bucs' GM, Jason Licht, who has a strong record of success when it comes to drafting offensive linemen. Jones is a plug-and-play left tackle who didn't surrender a single sack in 15 games last season at Georgia. He's a great athlete, with the physical traits of a franchise LT. This pick would not only provide fantastic value, but it would also address a glaring need on the roster while allowing the Bucs to keep Tristan Wirfs on the right side. Home run.
20. Seattle Seahawks | Lukas Van Ness | Edge | Iowa
Van Ness could easily be selected in the top-10, but in this scenario, the Seahawks find great value by landing him here. Despite not being a full-time starter for the Iowa Hawkeyes' stacked defense last season, Van Ness was highly productive when he was on the field. He's also a promising prospect, who, based on his physical attributes, has a tremendously high ceiling. His speed, power, length, and motor should allow him to not only find success early in his career but to have a legitimate chance at developing into a lethal NFL pass rusher over time.
21. Los Angeles Chargers | Myles Murphy | DE | Clemson
I think there's a good chance the Chargers pull the trigger on a tight end here. That said, Dalton Kincaid is off the board, and he would've been the perfect fit for Justin Herbert and co. to take this offense to the next level. On to plan B. The Chargers could benefit from adding some more depth to their defensive line. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa can't be counted on to stay healthy for an entire season. Meanwhile, Myles Murphy is big, strong, and he loves to get after the quarterback. He also offers great versatility, with the ability to kick inside if needed. Great value here.
22. Baltimore Ravens | Deonte Banks | CB | Maryland
Deonte Banks is a strong prospect due to his size, mentality, and movement skills. He was born and raised in Baltimore, and more importantly, is a perfect fit for what the Ravens ask of their defensive backs. He's a great athlete, who jumped the highest of any cornerback at the combine. He has good instincts, and the versatility needed to play within a varied defensive scheme. His impressive combination of strength and length makes him a hot commodity and will allow him to match up with different types of receivers at the next level.
23. Minnesota Vikings | Hendon Hooker | QB | Tennessee
The Vikings are going to need to draft a receiver in order to provide support to Justin Jefferson. I'm just not convinced they'll do it here. Rumblings from NFL personnel continue to support the notion that Hendon Hooker is viewed favorably by NFL scouts and GMs. The Vikings need to start planning for life after Kirk Cousins and the financial benefits of having a starting QB on a rookie deal are well-known. If the Vikings believe in Hooker — and based on his prolific production in the SEC, they should — then getting him towards the end of the first round is good business. Hooker could use his rookie season to recover from his injury while learning the offense, before officially taking over in year two.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars | Anton Harrison | OT | Oklahoma
Despite being just 21 years old, Anton Harrison has great experience to go along with his size and physical ability. He is viewed by most analysts as a top 5 tackle in this draft, thus making this a solid value pick for the Jags. Following the departure of Jawaan Taylor, there's no doubt that Jacksonville would benefit from bringing in a top-tier tackle prospect to replace him. Harrison has experience playing both tackle spots, and his presence would immediately bolster the Jag's offensive line group, which would benefit an organization whose prime objective is to keep their franchise quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, out of harm's way.
25. New York Giants | Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College
As far as receivers go, Zay Flowers might be the twitchiest, most explosive athlete this draft class has to offer. He's also, quite simply, a baller. Despite being listed at just 5'10", Flowers has proven that he can make plays, and come down with the football at all levels. He did this throughout his time at Boston College — where he scored 12 TDs in 12 games, to go with 70+ receptions and 1K+ rec yards — and I expect him to be able to do so in the NFL as well. The Giants are in desperate need of talented pass catchers, and although Flowers doesn't offer the prototypical size of an NFL WR, he has the mentality, athleticism, and collegiate production to override traditional standards.
26. Dallas Cowboys | Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame
Michael Mayer is an NFL-ready prospect, with the ability to step in immediately as an effective in line blocker and red zone monster. It's hard to find any flaws in Mayer's game. He has the size, body control, and mentality required to excel as an NFL tight end early in his career. It feels like a lot of people are overthinking Mayer as a prospect. In the right situation, I believe he can become an immediate difference-maker at the NFL level. Dallas would certainly qualify as one of those situations.
27. Buffalo Bills | Drew Sanders | LB | Arkansas
After losing Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears in free agency, the Bills have a clear need at inside linebacker. Pairing the best one in this year's draft with first-team All-Pro, Matt Milano would immediately replenish the middle of the Bills' defense. Sanders has the size, speed, and versatility to excel in the Bills' defensive system, and he's ready to contribute right away.
28. Cincinnati Bengals | Luke Musgrave | TE | Oregon State
With Hayden Hurst moving on to Carolina, the Bengals will be eager to get in on this year's loaded TE class. Luke Musgrave has the size, skill, and athleticism to develop into a dynamic player in the NFL. Athletically, Musgrave's RAS score ranks him 7th out of 1020 tight end prospects evaluated at the combine in the last 36 years. His ceiling is through the roof, and it's scary to imagine how effective he could be right away playing within the Bengals' prolific aerial attack.
29. New Orleans Saints | Bryan Bresee | IDL | Clemson
Bresee is a big, powerful athlete who's been a popular name in draft circles for quite some time now. The Saints have an obvious need along the interior of their defensive line, and Bresee would immediately bring some much-needed vigor to that group.
30. Philadelphia Eagles | Brian Branch | S | Alabama
Although I consider the Eagles likely candidates to package some picks to move up in the first round to make a play for Jalen Carter, I avoid predicting specific trades when creating my own mock drafts. Despite missing out on the most talented interior defensive lineman in the draft, in this scenario, Howie Roseman is able to fill a need — following the departure of Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in free agency — and land the undisputed best safety/nickel corner prospect in the draft.
31. Kansas City Chiefs | Quentin Johnson | WR | Texas Christian
I had trouble leaving Iowa State's dynamic pass rusher, Will McDonald IV, out of this first-round mock draft. Although he's a player I expect the Chiefs to consider with this pick, I'm buying into the rumors that the Chiefs have a legitimate interest in the big-bodied, deep-threat receiver out of TCU, Quentin Johnson. With two smaller, shiftier receivers — Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney — already secure in their roles for next season, a bigger receiver like Johnson could add another dimension to Andy Reid's offense. It's hard to envision Johnson not finding success at the NFL level if he's catching his passes from Patrick Mahomes.
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