Divisional Round Playoff Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
As you've probably already heard, Sunday afternoon's NFC Divisional Round matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions is a hot ticket. In fact, it's the most expensive average ticket price for any divisional round playoff game in history.
It makes sense when you consider how long the Detroit Lions' fanbase has waited to watch their team play in the postseason. Thankfully for them, the Lions have already snapped their division title drought, with the last one coming over 30 year ago, in 1993. Prior to last weekend's Wildcard victory over the L.A. Rams, the Detroit hadn't won a playoff game since 1991.
To say this franchise, their fans, and the city of Detroit has been starved for success would be a dramatic understatement. The absence of victory in the city has created an incredible demand for tickets. At the same time, it guarantees that Ford Field will be an absolutely raucous atmosphere when the Bucs and Lions square off at 3pm (EST) on Sunday.
Let's take a look at what the Buccaneers need to do on both sides of the ball to come away with a victory on Sunday.
Offense
When these two teams met back in Week 6 at Raymond James Stadium, the Lions dismantled the Buccaneers relatively easily, winning the game 20-6. Although the Buccaneers' defense managed to hold Jared Goff and the Lions prolific offense at bay, Dave Canales' offense had one of their worst performances of the season.
Baker Mayfield was an atrocious 19/37 in that game, and despite throwing almost 40 times, he was barely able to crack the 200-yard plateau. He also threw an interception, with 0 touchdowns to his credit.
To make matters worse, the Bucs were only able to muster up 46 total rushing yards in that contest.
Yikes.
The good news for the Bucs is that their offense has improved significantly since that meeting back in early October.
Although the run-game still leaves a lot to be desired, the Buccaneers have shown they can run the ball effectively when mixed in with an efficient passing attack. Look no further than last week's Wildcard win over the Eagles, where Dave Canales proved that his concepts can be extremely effective when his sequencing keeps the defense guessing.
Canales married the run and the pass beautifully, even starting the game with two consecutive passing plays. From that moment onwards, it felt as though the Buccaneers were passing to set up the run as opposed to the traditional (and predictable) method of running to set up the pass -- which is what they've done most of the season. The results speak for themselves, and when it was all said and done, Tampa Bay had generated 119 yards rushing in addition to their 307 through the air.
Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) reacts after a victory against the Philadelphia Eagles in a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
It's important to note that despite the Eagles struggles to close the season, they still have an elite defensive line. But they were terrible defending the pass. Which brings us back to the task at hand, which is the Detroit Lions.
During the regular season, the Lions had the 20th ranked pass defense, but they were the worst in the league when it came to passing yards per game. In the regular season, Detroit's opponents put up almost 274 passing yards per contest. (NFL.com).
Their rushing defense is a different story. Detroit gave up 1,509 rushing yards this season, which was the second fewest of any defense in the league. They ranked third in yards per carry, with opposing running backs averaging a pedestrian 3.7 yards per rush.
Does this mean the Buccaneers should abandon the run completely? Absolutely not. But I'd like to see Dave Canales use the pass to set up the run, as opposed to the other way around. If he does that, I would expect the Buccaneers to find success, and put up points, like they did last week vs. Philadelphia.
Aidan Hutchinson is already one of the league's premier pass rushers, and he remains a bonafide threat to sack the quarterback on every play. That said, the Lions offer little else in the way of quarterback pressures. Which means for the Bucs, the bulk of the responsibility will fall on the shoulders of second-year right tackle, Luke Goedeke, who has thrived playing at his new position. In fact, Goedeke had arguably his most impressive performance of the season against Hutchinson in Week 6.
One thing I'd like to see the Buccaneers do differently than the Wildcard round is the distribution of targets. The Bucs caught the Eagles off guard by featuring players like Cade Otton, Trey Palmer, and David Moore early in the game. The element of surprise worked like a charm. That said, I think Tampa Bay would be wise to get Mike Evans and Chris Godwin involved early in this one. If you're Dave Canales, you don't want to over think it. Even if the Lions have spent the majority of the week planning to slow those guys down, make them prove that they can do it before turning to your secondary skill position players.
Also, I'll continue to publicly recommend the Buccaneers make more of an effort to feature Rachaad White as a pass catcher until it happens. Despite rarely being used as a first or second read, White has put up excellent receiving numbers this year. Why not utilize his ability as a receiving weapon more regularly? Not only does he have great hands, but he has the ability to generate a ton of yards after the catch. It's something we saw him do earlier this season when he was given the opportunity.
Defense
Defensively, Todd Bowles was in his bag vs. Philadelphia. Not just in terms of his creative stunts and blitzes, but from a personnel perspective as well. Bowles decided to play Zyon McCollum almost exclusively at safety -- something he's never done in his career -- and it added an entirely new element of speed to the Bucs' defensive backfield. Having McCollum on the field at the same time as Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis created a more dynamic group than what they have when Ryan Neal is on the field.
Having a more dependable collection of defensive backs allowed Bowles to be extra aggressive -- even for him -- when it came to sending bodies at Philly's stout offensive lie. It created a distinct advantage for his team as the majority of the time, there were simply more rushers than there were blockers to account for them.
Like the Eagles, Detroit boasts one of the strongest offensive lines in the NFL. However, it won't be as simple for Bowles as just replicating the exact game plan he used last weekend. In addition to a quarterback with plenty of production and experience, the Lions have a healthy, and highly impressive collection of offensive playmakers. More specific to this matchup, they are incredibly successful when it comes to attacking zone blitzes -- which is Todd Bowles' M.O.
Jared Goff has the second highest completion percentage and third lowest sack percentage of all quarterbacks when facing the blitz. A testament not only to his awareness in the pocket, but also to the safety that can be provided by an elite offensive line. Conversely, Goff's number one target, Armon Ra St. Brown, has 605 receiving yards vs. the blitz this season, which is the second most in the NFL. St. Brown is a master at abusing zone defenses. He is crafty at finding gaps in the defense and patient enough to settle into an open space to make himself available when his quarterback is under pressure.
Bowles will need to be much more strategic with his blitzes against the Lions, or else he'll get burned.
To complicate matters for Tampa Bay's defense, the Lions also boast one of the most potent running back tandems in the NFL. Jahmyr Gibbs, the dynamic rookie out of Alabama, has the speed and agility to bust an explosive play at any moment. Meanwhile, his counterpart David Montgomery can wear down a defense with his relentless, physical approach over the course of a game. The Lions use both players in the red zone, and the two backs have combined for an impressive 23 rushing touchdowns on the season.
On the other side the coin, the Buccaneers have really tightened up their red zone defense as of late. Especially when it comes to slowing down runners near the goal line.
In addition to proven run-stuffers like Vita Vea and Will Gholston, the ascension of rookie defensive linemen, Calijah Kancey and YaYa Diaby, has provided a huge boost to the Buccaneers' defense as the season has gone on. Having Lavonte David -- who continues to play out of his mind -- waiting at the next level helps a lot too.
Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David (54) reacts after a safety against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
But Lavonte David's responsibilities certainly aren't limited to supporting the run. He'll have his hands full defending Sam LaPorta, who was one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL as a rookie. LaPorta led his position with 10 receiving touchdowns this season. The next closest tight end had six.
Lions' offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, does a tremendous job utilizing all of the weapons he has at his disposal. He's in high demand because of it. In fact, Johnson is conducting interviews for numerous head coaching positions around the league just one day before his team's Divisional Round matchup with the Bucs.
Hopefully for the Lions, Ben Johnson is a good multitasker. Because if you ask me, interviewing with multiple NFL teams within 24 hours of your own playoff game is a distraction.
Regardless, the Buccaneers will need contributions from every level of their defense if they're going to slow down the Lions. The good news is that Todd Bowles has a proven track record of success when facing the same offense twice in the same season. Hopefully for the Bucs, that trend continues.
Final Thoughts
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are facing yet another challenge. Not only are the Detroit Lions one of the most well-rounded offenses in the entire NFL, but the advantage of playing postseason games at home for the first time in over 30 years means the crowd in Detroit will be a massive factor.
However, there is a path to victory for the Bucs.
If Dave Canales continues to vary his offensive approach with unpredictable play sequencing, it has the potential to really unleash the elements needed to put plenty of points on the board. Especially against a Lions' defense that is vulnerable defending the pass. Get the ball to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rachaad White early in the game. Doing this will not only open up opportunities for the team to find success running the ball, but also the chances for secondary receivers to make an impact like we saw last week vs. Philadelphia. If the Buccaneers are going to win this football game, they need to be aggressive through the air.
On the other side, Tampa Bay will have their hands full. The Lions are going to move the ball on offense. They're too good not to. But if Todd Bowles' defense can find a way to generate a turnover or two, it could be the difference in the game.
Whether or not the underdog Buccaneers will prevail in Detroit, I'm not sure. But what I do know is that this team is hitting their stride at the right time of the season. It doesn't happen every week, but when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense and defense are both performing well at the same time, they have the ability to beat anyone. And that definitely includes the Detroit Lions.
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