Takeaways From the Buccaneers Nail-Biting Overtime Win Over the Bills

First there was dominance, then some nail biting-inducing football, before a milestone of an overtime touchdown pass wrapped things up on Sunday evening.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3) held on to defeat the Buffalo Bills (7-6) in overtime by a score of 33-27 yesterday, improving their record to 10-3 on the season and continuing down a clear path toward winning the NFC South, only needing one more victory across their next four games to clinch the division.

However, Sunday's game against Buffalo reignited concerns as to how legitimate of a Super Bowl contender this Buccaneers team will be when the playoffs arrive. AllBucs has assessed those concerns, as well as the impressive aspects of the win, in our five takeaways from the matchup below.

Another confusing Buccaneers game...

Sunday's game is the perfect example of why the Buccaneers can make another Super Bowl run this year, while simultaneously exposing that the team is susceptible to falling well short of that goal as well.

Across the first 30 or so minutes of the game, the Buccaneers dominated the Bills, considered a contender in the AFC for most of this season, in almost every way. Tampa Bay owned a 24-3 lead halfway through the third quarter, not allowing dynamic Bills quarterback Josh Allen to move Buffalo's offense down the field while keeping star receiver Stefon Diggs in check, as he was limited to two receptions for 29 yards on four first-half targets. With little luck through the air and a near-complete abandonment of the run game, the Bills went 0-of-5 on third down in the first half.

At halftime, the Bucs almost doubled the yardage output of the Bills (303 to 158), Tom Brady had completed 73% of his passes for 216 yards and broke ankles as a rusher, Leonard Fournette was averaging 7.2 yards per carry after his first-drive, 47-yard touchdown run, and Chris Godwin had already caught seven passes for 91 yards.

But then things fell apart, as we've seen numerous times throughout the year (think of the Atlanta [Week 2], Philadelphia, and New Orleans games). Tampa Bay's defense allowed 24 points from the middle of the third quarter through the end of regulation while only managing to score three points themselves, moving the ball 116 yards over their five second-half drives (not including the kneel-down drive before overtime) while looking to put a bow on the game, converting 1-of-6 third downs in the final 30 minutes.

As a result, Buffalo tied the game with 25 seconds left in regulation, and the contest went to overtime.

...ends with Tom Brady reaching an incredible milestone

Well, you know what happened.

The Bucs' defense regained its footing in overtime, forcing a three-and-out on Buffalo's opening possession. Bills punter Matt Haack launched a 63-yard boot that pinned Tampa Bay at its own six-yard line.

A three-yard Fournette rush and six-yard Godwin catch left Tampa Bay facing a 3rd and 1, which Fournette narrowly converted after his one-yard rush was reviewed. Then a pass to Mike Evans resulted in defensive pass interference, a Fournette catch lost seven yards, then a Rob Gronkowski reception gained 14 back.

Then, on 3rd and 3 at the Bucs' 42-yard line, Brady found receiver Breshad Perriman open on a crossing route, which led Perriman to turn upfield and prance 58 yards into the endzone - resulting in Brady's 700th career passing touchdown (including the playoffs).

Game over, in an absolutely unbelievable fashion.

BRADY TO BRESHAD PERRIMAN FOR THE WIN. #GoBucs #BUFvsTB pic.twitter.com/RCk7taOkiW
— NFL (@NFL) December 13, 2021

How concerning was the Buccaneers' second-half showing?

The first takeaway - or, I guess you can call it a summary - leads me to a concerning question that needs to be asked: Can the Buccaneers consistently win big games, particularly in the playoffs, when they lose their grip on leads - especially by a big margin - the way they have throughout the year?

Against Atlanta in Week 2, Tampa Bay owned a three-possession lead halfway through the third quarter similar to this past Sunday before allowing the Falcons to narrow the margin to three points into the fourth quarter. It took two Mike Edwards pick-sixes near the end of the game to seal a Buccaneers win against a vastly inferior opponent.

Philadelphia was down by as many as 21 points in Week 6 - once again, halfway through the third quarter - before posting 15 unanswered points, narrowing the lead to six and being within a third-down stop or big play of getting the ball back for likely the final drive of the game. The Bucs escaped with a win by rediscovering their offensive groove on the final drive, burning clock with a few chunk plays and third-down conversions.

Tampa Bay trailed New Orleans for the majority of their Week 8 contest but put together a second-half comeback, taking a one-point lead just over halfway through the fourth quarter. New Orleans responded with a 12-play drive that erased 4:03 from a dwindling game clock, followed that drive with a pick-six off of Brady, and ended the game by forcing a turnover on downs in the final minute.

The nearly-disastrous crumbling against Buffalo is a trend for this Tampa Bay team, which has now been seen against both formidable and underwhelming opponents across the first 13 weeks of the season. More often than not, the Buccaneers have managed to close the game in their favor, but is that a sustainable way to win games when the playoffs come around?

Time will tell, but I certainly don't think so.

Had Bucs not won in overtime vs. Bills today, it would have matched the largest blown lead of Tom Brady's 22-year NFL career. Only other 21-point lead he's lost was in 2011, also against Buffalo, as Patriots led 21-0 but lost 34-31 on a field goal as time expired.
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) December 13, 2021

Andrew Adams and Richard Sherman make an impact

Due to Jordan Whitehead's calf injury and Edwards' three-game suspension for misrepresenting his COVID-19 vaccination status, the Bucs are extremely thin at safety right now. At least, on paper, it might seem that way.

Andrew Adams, typically a special teams contributor and recently a victim of healthy scratches, is out to prove that idea incorrect.

Adams started his second game in a row with Whitehead sidelined and was one of Tampa Bay's biggest-impact defenders throughout the contest. He finished the game with five total tackles, pitching in on a Shaquil Barrett sack on Buffalo's first drive of the game (although Barrett received the box score credit), and tallied two pass breakups around the line of scrimmage.

Cornerback Richard Sherman, meanwhile, made an impact as well. He recorded the lone interception of the game for either team on a second-quarter pass from Allen to tight end Dawson Knox. It was Sherman's first interception as a Buccaneer and the 37th of his career, the most in the NFL among active players. And it came in Sherman's return to play after he was sidelined for the previous six games with various injuries.

After a week of training at the position due to the Bucs' depth issues, Sherman even took 13 snaps at safety in the contest as well (per Pro Football Focus).

The Bucs, obviously, hope Whitehead can return to play soon and will have Edwards available come Week 16, which will re-establish their depth and talent at the safety position. However, it seems as though Adams and Sherman are capable of holding things down in the meantime.

It's fair to wonder if the Buccaneers need Antonio Brown

As you are probably well aware of by now, receiver Antonio Brown is away from the team just as Edwards is for reportedly obtaining and using a fake COVID-19 vaccination card. Brown, unlike Edwards, has a well-documented past of misconduct off the field which has led to speculation whether or not the Buccaneers will cut ties with the five-time All-Pro.

Upon his signing, head coach Bruce Arians specifically said: “[If Brown] screws up one time, he's gone," making the speculation warranted.

Well, Brown is two games through his three-game suspension, yet he remains on the roster. Perhaps that means Arians has changed his mindset and is willing to give Brown another chance; perhaps the team would prefer to cut Brown near the end of the season to prevent him from signing with a fellow playoff contender and immediately being comfortable within their offense.

Regardless, if Sunday proved anything, it's that the Buccaneers' passing offense can operate just fine without Brown involved in the game plan. Brady admitted that he missed a lot of throws in the second half, yet, he still completed 67.4% of his throws for 363 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt, the third-highest single-game Y/A mark of Brady’s 2021 season.

That much was also true against Atlanta in Week 13, when the Bucs accumulated 368 passing yards and four touchdowns while Brown served the first game of his suspension. In the previous five games when Brown was out with an ankle injury, Tampa Bay averaged 267.8 yards and 2.6 touchdowns passing per game. Entering Week 14, those stats would, compared to the rest of the league this whole season, respectively rank No. 7 and No. 1.

And yes, the Buccaneers did enter Week 14 ranked No. 1 in passing touchdowns per game this season, at 2.8.

This isn't to say Brown doesn't add an elite element to the Bucs offense, he undoubtedly does. He's a big-play machine with speed and route-running polish to act as the team's No. 1 deep threat, showcased by his team-leading (of receivers with 10+ catches) 14.4 yards per reception this season.

Yet, Evans and Godwin continue to prove that they are No. 1 caliber receivers themselves, while tight end Rob Gronkowski has averaged 78.5 yards per game since his return from rib/back injuries in Week 11, running back Leonard Fournette is on pace to tie and surpass his career-highs in receptions and receiving yards, respectively, and other receivers have filled in decently as complementary pass-game weapons, in some cases producing clutch plays.

Look no further than Perriman's game-winning catch and run in overtime on Sunday. Cyril Grayson's 50-yard touchdown against New Orleans is another example, and so are Tyler Johnson's 20 receptions on the year. Scotty Miller is another candidate to produce as he has a history of creating big plays, although his usage has been limited since his Week 12 activation from the injured reserve.

Even without Brown, the Bucs have a stockpile of weapons at Brady’s disposal.

And before you point to the third takeaway above as a reason why the Buccaneers do need Brown, remember that he was active for the Atlanta and Philadelphia games earlier this year.

Arians has the weapons within his Buccaneers' offense to remain true to his word and let Brown go. The question is, will Arians follow through?

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