Jalon Daniels' Advanced Metrics Trending Upward After First Career Win With Bucs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers felt dead in the water after starting the season 0-3. And then the unthinkable happened.

They were forced to start an undrafted rookie at quarterback after Baker Mayfield went down with an injury.

Jalon Daniels was thrust into the fire early in his NFL career, but it didn't net him success in his first start. However, he and the team were able to figure out what works best, as he went on to win his second career start against the Dallas Cowboys.

Week-Over-Week Improvement

In Week 4 against the Green Bay Packers, in his first start, Daniels was turbulent. He completed 19 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown, but he also threw two interceptions and took three sacks, resulting in a negative passing EPA (expected points added) of -0.194.

EPA, which measures the value of a play based on how much it increases or decreases a team's likelihood of scoring, tells a deeper story about how a player is impacting his team's success.

Daniels was able to flip his impact on the game with a positive EPA against the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, coming away with a positive +0.229 EPA. He completed 76% of his passes for 189 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and just one sack.

Drastically cutting down on high-risk mistakes and going turnover-free showed his improved decision-making after just one game in a primetime spot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jalon Daniels — Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jalon Daniels (10) Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Efficiency Blueprint

It wasn't just Daniels who looked sharp against Dallas. It was also the positions that offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was putting him in.

Across both games, Daniels has produced a high completion rate, but an extremely low average depth of target (4.1 yards).

While that didn't necessarily work against the Packers, it did against the Cowboys. It goes to show that Robinson is scheming up high-percentage throws that protect his young quarterback from facing heavy pressure, mitigating negative plays.

This has also allowed Daniels to get the ball out fast to his playmakers to go and make plays, rather than putting all the pressure on himself.

The Trajectory

Daniels has also been efficient when using his legs, which will only continue to add another layer to his game as he continues trending upward in the absence of Mayfield.

While Daniels isn't pushing the ball downfield just yet, his trajectory is pointing upward, which likely means Robinson and staff will feel more comfortable opening up the offense for him.

If Daniels can continue the efficient play and growth that we have seen through his first two career starts, the Bucs could be in a good position to steal another game or two while Mayfield works his way back.

No matter what, it's great to see that an undrafted rookie is making the most of the opportunities given to him. The Bucs must make the most of this if they hope to remain in the race for the NFC South, and that might just come down to Daniels continuing to elevate his game over the next week or two.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook, X and Instagram for the latest news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google