Buccaneers Quarterback Dilemma: Is it Time to Search for the Future Beyond Baker Mayfield?

Baker Mayfield has exceeded expectations as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.

Not necessarily in the win/loss column, as many who were familiar with the team prior to this season felt as though the Buccaneers were being slept on heading into 2023. But let's be real, that optimism was rooted more in the quality of the roster than it was in the insertion of Baker Mayfield into it.

Although the Bucs' offense hasn't lit the world on fire this year, statistically at least, they haven't been nearly as bad as many seem to believe.

If you would have told me the Bucs would have a league average offense with an above average passing attack this season, I would have told you this team was going places.

Bowles refusal to change, adapt and grow as a DC has killed any hope of that.
— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) November 28, 2023

Much of the Buccaneers' lack of success (at least on offense) can be attributed to the team's inability to run the football. But in terms of Baker Mayfield's role? He's done a fine job.

In fact, heading into Week 13, Mayfield ranks 13th among all starting NFL quarterbacks in terms of EPA/play with a score of 0.094. That's better than Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Mathew Stafford, and plenty of other quality starting quarterbacks.

He's also in the top half of the league in terms of yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and passer rating.

That said, Mayfield has struggled mightily when it comes to throwing the deep ball. In fact, he's the worst of all NFL starters in terms of his accuracy and success in throwing the ball downfield.

But even though he hasn't been perfect, Mayfield has done more than enough to put his team in a position to win more games than they have. Especially when you consider that he's playing in a new system, with a first-time play-caller, and all new teammates.

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So now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's cut to the chase.

Is it time for the Buccaneers to search for the future beyond Baker Mayfield?

Wait... what? Did I just go out of my way to explain how Baker Mayfield has been rock solid this season, and then proceed to ask if it's time for the Buccaneers to move on from him?

Yeah, I did. And for good reason.

Despite Baker's performance this year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have reached a fork in the road. And although ownership, management, and coaches like to consider this season more of a re-load than a rebuild, the proof is in the pudding.

The Bucs have lost six of their last seven games, and have taken a major step back on the defensive side of the ball. They've got a number of impending free agents at key positions, including Mike Evans, Devin White, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Lavonte David. Things have gotten so bad, in fact, that their head coach and defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles, is at risk of losing his job.

The heat has been turned up on Todd Bowles with the #Bucs dropping to 4-7.

RED HOT.

Coaching change is likely coming.
— PewterReport 🏴‍☠️ (@PewterReport) November 26, 2023

It hasn't been pretty.

But you know what has? The performance of this year's draft-eligible quarterbacks.

And as the Buccaneers' postseason probabilities dwindle with each loss, their path to a prosperous future gets brighter.

The 2024 quarterback draft class has the potential to be special. And should the Bucs continue to travel along their current trajectory, they could very well find themselves in a position to draft a highly rated quarterback prospect to (rebuild or re-load) their team around for the future.

Let's take a look — in no particular order — at four of the top quarterback prospects, each of whom is likely to be available, and potentially of interest to the Buccaneers come next April's draft.

1. Jayden Daniels | LSU | 6'4", 200 lbs

2023 Stats: 3,812 Passing Yards / 40 TD / 4 INT / 95.6 QBR (1st) 1, 134 Rushing Yards and 10 Rushing TD

Strengths: Jayden Daniels has absolutely eviscerated opposing defenses this season. His combination of size, arm talent, and elite running ability makes him a dynamic dual-threat prospect. His absurd numbers speak for themselves, and despite his age, it feels like he's only scratching the surface of what he could accomplish at the next level. Fun fact: Daniels was teammates with Bucs' running back, Rachaad White, at Arizona State prior to transferring to LSU. (eyes emoji)

Concerns: Small sample size. Daniels put up pedestrian numbers at ASU, and modest production in his first year at LSU in 2022. His explosive production as a senior has been extremely impressive, but could it be a mirage?

Projected Draft Position: Round 1

2. Bo Nix | Oregon | 6'2", 213 lbs

2023 Stats: 3,906 Passing Yards / 32 TD / 1 INT / 91.1 QBR (2nd)

Strengths: Bo Nix has all the tools you look for in an NFL quarterback. He's strong, has great balance, and he's extremely poised in the pocket. His extensive experience at the collegiate level has allowed him to really perfect his craft. Nix has excellent fundamentals, most notably his throwing mechanics and footwork. Both of those attributes contribute to what I would classify as a 'mature' approach to playing the position. He has a strong arm and the vision to make any throw on the field. Sure, he's older than most, but he's also an extremely polished prospect who could step in and start at the NFL level immediately.

Concerns: Nix has managed to silence the critics who, based on his time at Auburn, felt that turnovers, especially in the intermediate part of the field, were a concern. Some believe that Nix may still be a little too dependent on the sidelines when it comes to reading defenses, and that he lacks the knowledge/confidence to make reads pre-snap in order to make the correct audibles consistently. This is not a critique that I can confirm from my vantage point, so don't shoot the messenger if you're #TeamBo.

Projected Draft Position: Round 1

3. Michael Penix Jr. | Washington | 6'3, 213 lbs

2023 Stats: 3,899 Passing Yards / 38 TD / 8 INT / 82.8QBR (10th)

Strengths: What sets Penix apart from some of the other QB prospects is his elite ability to throw with anticipation, accuracy, and touch. He can layer the ball beautifully no matter the defensive coverage, and he has enough athleticism to make throws on the run, or to buy himself a little extra time when needed.

Concerns: Despite his prolific performance over the past two seasons, Penix has a history of serious injuries. He will also be 24 years old by the time he takes his first snap in the NFL which is significantly older than most quarterback prospects who are drafted in the early rounds. For reference, Tristan Wirfs is currently 24, and he's already got two Pro Bowls and an All-Pro season under his belt.

Projected Draft Position: Round 1-2

4. J.J. McCarthy | Michigan | 6'3", 202 lbs

2023 Stats: 2,483 passing yards / 19 TD / 4 INT / 90.8 QBR (3rd)

Strengths: McCarthy is an interesting evaluation because of the way he's been used in college. Despite having all the tools to lead an explosive offensive attack, he has more or less been handcuffed by an ultra-conservative offensive scheme at Michigan. Still, he's an extremely athletic, tough player with great leadership qualities. He also has enough arm talent to be a successful passer at the NFL level. The question is, which team believes they have the infrastructure in place to unleash that potential?

Concerns: Again, despite the Wolverines' undeniable success, the way McCarthy has been used at Michigan likely hurts his stock. NFL scouts would prefer to draft a player whose complete arsenal of quarterback skills was on full display while playing the position in college. That said, Michigan's success with McCarthy under center has been undeniable.

Projected Draft Position: Rounds 1-2

Each of the quarterbacks profiled above presents a tantalizing opportunity for the Buccaneers' to secure a potential franchise quarterback, on a rookie scale contract for the next four to five years.

A scenario does exist where the Bucs could try to re-sign Mayfield, and still draft a quarterback... but I think that would be unlikely. Based on his performance this season, Mayfield has earned himself a significant pay increase — he's currently playing on a 1-year/$4 million contract — for next year. Providing him with the financial incentive he'll be looking for in the offseason, while simultaneously drafting his replacement, doesn't make much sense for either party.

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Could the Bucs look in another direction on the free-agent market to address the quarterback position? Maybe. But I would consider that highly unlikely. I believe Jason Licht and his staff would prefer to re-sign Baker Mayfield than hand the keys over to another veteran quarterback.

Chances are, it's either going to be Baker Mayfield. or a talented rookie quarterback under center for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024.

And if it's the latter? I would be shocked if it wasn't one of these four prospects.

Stick with BucsGameday and the Locked On Bucs podcast for more coverage, news and analysis throughout the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 season.

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