How Does Chiefs-Cowboys Affect the Playoff Pictures?

The Chiefs and Cowboys both enter their Thanksgiving game on the outside looking in at the NFL playoffs. If the postseason started next weekend, neither team would be a participant. But there is still a third of the season remaining and a win would bolster both teams' chances of making the playoffs.

Here's a look at Dallas and Kansas City's remaining schedules as well as their chances of making the playoffs heading into Thanksgiving.

Kansas City Chiefs Remaining Schedule

The Chiefs have three home games and three road games remaining. Two of their opponents are division rivals with better records and two of the teams are fighting for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft.

Week	Opponent	Opponent Record	Home / Away
13	Cowboys	5-5-1	Away
14	Texans	6-5	Home
15	Chargers	7-4	Home
16	Titans	1-10	Away
17	Broncos	9-2	Home
18	Raiders	2-9	Away

AFC Playoff Picture

Seed	Team	Record
1. (Bye)	Patriots	10-2
2.	Broncos	9-2
3.	Colts	8-3
4.	Ravens	6-5
5.	Chargers	7-4
6.	Jaguars	7-4
7.	Bills	7-4
NON	PLAYOFF	TEAMS
8.	Texans	6-5
9.	Steelers	6-5
10.	Chiefs	6-5
11.	Dolphins	4-7
12.	Bengals	3-8
13.	Browns	3-8
14.	Raiders	2-9
15.	Jets	2-9
16.	Titans	1-10

Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances

Kansas City comes into Thanksgiving with a 6-5 record and the 10th-best record in the AFC. They sit in third place in the AFC West, a division that they have won for the last nine seasons in a row. Coming off seven consecutive trips to the AFC championship game, their exclusion from the playoffs would certainly be the most jarring.

According to ESPN they still have a 13% chance to win the AFC West, but that seems even less likely than the numbers suggest. The good news is that they have an easier remaining schedule than the Chargers. ESPN is currently giving the Chiefs a 63% chance to make the playoffs and amazingly the third-best chance of making the Super Bowl in the AFC at 15%.

Dallas Cowboys Remaining Schedule

The Cowboys have four home games remaining and multiple games against losing teams as well as potential playoff teams that they definitely have the firepower to beat.

Week	Opponent	Opponent's Record	Home / Away
13	Chiefs	6-5	Home
14	Lions	7-4	Away
15	Vikings	4-7	Home
16	Chargers	7-4	Home
17	Commanders	3-9	Away
18	Giants	2-10	Home

NFC Playoff Picture

Playoff Seed	Team	Record
1. (Bye)	Rams	9-2
2.	Eagles	8-3
3.	Bears	8-3
4.	Buccaneers	6-5
5.	Seahawks	8-3
6.	Packers	7-3-1
7.	49ers	8-4
NON	PLAYOFF	TEAMS
8.	Lions	7-4
9.	Panthers	6-6
10.	Cowboys	5-5-1
11.	Falcons	4-7
12.	Vikings	4-7
13.	Cardinals	3-8
14.	Commanders	3-8
15.	Saints	2-9
16.	Giants	2-10

Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances

The Cowboys are also 10th in their conferece, but their chances are much slimmer. ESPN gives Dallas just a 9% chance of making the playoffs and an almost non-existent chance of making the NFC championship game which they haven't experienced in 30 years.

The Cowboys have won a total of four playoff games this century. They're currently second in the NFC East with just a 2% chance of catching the Eagles to win their division so winning every single game is incredibly important. Luckily, their next two games after Thanksgiving are both primetime games so we'll get a good look at them down the stretch.