Analytics Recap: Kansas City Chiefs Defeat New York Jets, 35-9
The Kansas City Chiefs improved their record to 7-1 after beating the 0-8 New York Jets 35-9 on Sunday. The Chiefs really made it look easy all game, and the Jets were just not good enough to compete. This Sunday, the Chiefs will face the 3-5 Carolina Panthers at Arrowhead Stadium.
Here are the advanced numbers for the game and the season from Ben Baldwin's rbsdm.com, and Football Outsiders.
EPA = Expected Points Added, SR = Success Rate, 1st% = First Down Rate
The passing offense and the whole defense were phenomenal in this one. The passing offense had an incredible 64% success rate and an otherworldly 0.64 EPA per play. The passing defense held the Jets passing game to a horrible -0.25 EPA per play and the Jets offense had an atrocious -0.17 EPA per play on late downs, where 13 of the 15 were passes.
Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill combined for 23.6 of Mahomes' 27.7 EPA on dropbacks, as it was a truly special performance from the Chiefs' top weapons. Additionally, only one player on the Jets offense had at least one EPA and that was rookie WR Denzel Mims with 2.6 EPA.
CPOE = Completion Percentage Over Expectation (Completion Percentage minus Expected Completion Percentage), QBR = ESPN's Quarterback Rating metric
Patrick Mahomes balled out in this one with his 27.7 EPA, 8.2 CPOE and 91.3 QBR, along with a 92.7 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade, the best of the week for quarterbacks. This was one of the best games of Mahomes' career. While he had some bright moments in the game as well, Sam Darnold had a really rough day with -4.3 EPA, a -3.6 CPOE and a 34.0 QBR.
Eight of the 10 biggest plays in this game were positive plays for the Chiefs, with the top one from the defense, the fourth-best one being a fake punt and the other six coming on passes from Patrick Mahomes.
Congratulations Chiefs fans! The Chiefs have the best team in the NFL by EPA, thanks in part to having the league's top Offensive EPA per play at 0.276, a big lead over the Green Bay Packers' 0.222 in second. The Chiefs also have the sixth-best Defensive EPA per play with -0.021, led by the second-best EPA allowed per dropback with -0.071!
The early down passing rate improved greatly this week, going from fifth with a 58.1% rate following Week 7 to third with a 59.2% rate following Week 8. The Seahawks remain the league leaders with 63.2%.
Lastly, we have the Football Outsiders numbers, notably Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). DVOA currently has a strength of opponent adjustment at 80% and rising until it hits 100% in Week 10. The Chiefs stood their ground across the board, remaining fourth in Overall DVOA, first in Offensive DVOA and 13th in Defensive DVOA.
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