Chiefs vs. Browns Week 1 Prop Bets
The Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns are set to kick off their respective seasons at 3:25 CST inside GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. There will be plenty on the line during this game.
This contest features a rematch of a Divisional Round playoff game from earlier this year. Getting a win to start the season would be huge for both teams, but especially for the Browns if they could pull off the upset. The Chiefs are hoping to get off to a hot start to silence any critics who have been hanging around since their Super Bowl loss to close out last season.
Let’s take a look at some of the intriguing prop bets coming up for the big matchup on Sunday.
Chiefs-Browns Outcome (Browns +5.5, Chiefs -5.5)
The last time the Chiefs and Browns met, the Chiefs won 22-17. One caveat: Patrick Mahomes didn’t play much in the second half due to being in concussion protocol. If Mahomes had played the whole game, it would have likely been a double-digit blowout. Opening weekend in Kansas City with a healthy Mahomes — I’m taking the Chiefs by a touchdown or more.
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Game Score Total: Over/Under 54.5
While I could see this potentially being a shootout, and a 38-31 type game would push this to the over easily, I’m just not sure the Browns will be able to keep up offensively with the Chiefs. The Chiefs' defense should be able to hold the Browns to 21 or less, so can the Chiefs get to 35+ and carry the game to the over? Definitely a possibility, and typically I’d predict the Chiefs to score close to 40 points. However, I’m thinking it may be a 31-20 type of game so I’m taking the under on this one.
Mark’s Pick: UNDER
Patrick Mahomes Bets
Yards: Over/Under 310.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Touchdowns: Over/Under 2.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Mahomes is going to come out firing on all cylinders in week one. He is one of the only quarterbacks in the league where throwing for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns almost seems normal, which is crazy to say. I’m thinking he will hit the overs on both yards and touchdowns in Week 1.
Baker Mayfield Bets
Yards: 257.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Touchdowns: Over/Under 1.5
Mark’s Pick: UNDER
It was tempting to pick over on both of these for Baker Mayfield. Ultimately, I think the Browns will be playing catch-up in the second half, but I think the Chiefs will hold them when they need to. The combo of Chubb and Hunt will be the ones to get the Browns into the end zone more often than not.
Tyreek Hill Bets
Receiving Yards: 80.5 Over/Under
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Touchdowns: Over/Under 0.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Receptions: Over/Under 6.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
In the opening game of the season, Tyreek Hill is going to show out. Mahomes will be looking for him early and Hill has the speed to do whatever he wants at times on the field. Take the over on anything related to Hill in this contest.
Odell Beckham Jr. Bets
Over/Under 3.5 catches
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Over/Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
Mark’s Pick: OVER
OBJ has been injury-riddled over the past few seasons and is coming off an ACL injury he suffered early last season, but he should be ready to roll in Week 1. Mayfield didn’t have OBJ at his disposal in the playoff game last year, so he will look for him early and often in this matchup. I expect OBJ to hit the overs here.
Travis Kelce Bets
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 87.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Receptions: Over/Under 7.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Touchdowns: Over/Under 0.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Much like with Hill, Kelce will be looked at early and often in this high-powered offensive output performance with quarterback Patrick Mahomes throwing them the ball. Kelce will get out to a hot start and should get roughly 100 yards and a touchdown. Receptions will be right there around the eight mark, so it will be close, but I’m still taking the over on all of them for Kelce.
Nick Chubb Bets
Rushing Yards: Over/Under 71.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Rushing Touchdowns: Over/Under 0.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Chubb is one of the more underrated running backs in the NFL since he has to share time with former Chief Kareem Hunt. I think it will be close on the yards, but ultimately gets between the 75-100 yard mark. I also think one of the Browns' touchdowns will be a rushing score from Chubb. I’m taking the overs on both.
Mecole Hardman Bets
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 36.5
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Receptions: Over/Under 3.5
Mark’s Pick: UNDER
Longest Reception: Over/Under 17.5 yards
Mark’s Pick: OVER
Hardman will be one of the more intriguing players to watch. Will his role expand in the Chiefs' offense this season? I think he will have at least one big play, which is why I am taking the over on yards at 36.5 and over 17.5 yards on longest reception. He will get involved in the running game a few times with some jet sweeps or passes behind the line of scrimmage, so total touches will be north of five but I think the receptions will stay around three, which is why I’m saying under on receptions. Hardman will be an interesting case study throughout the year.
