Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: 5 Questions and NFL Week 6 Prediction

Gathering intel on Russell Wilson and company ahead of the Chiefs' Week 6 matchup at home against the Broncos.

The Kansas City Chiefs are just hours away from a Thursday Night Football showdown against an AFC West rival, with the Denver Broncos coming to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City's dominance over Denver is well-documented, as Andy Reid and company have won 15 consecutive matchups in this series. This week's game is heavily favored on the betting market to end in the same result, although Sean Payton has helped Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson have a resurgence of sorts in 2023. The glaring issue is the Broncos' defense, which has been the worst unit in the league through five weeks. It's going to take a serious effort from the visitors in order for them to pick up a win, although the hosts aren't taking them lightly either way. 

What's important to know about Thursday's Chiefs vs. Broncos matchup? How could the action unfold? Zack Kelberman of Mile High Huddle was kind enough to answer five questions for me to cover all of that and more.

1. Evaluate the coaching job Sean Payton has done in year No. 1 in Denver

ZK: Payton has, by nearly all measures, improved the offense and made Russell Wilson a better quarterback, though it doesn't show in their record. He's also fixed the special teams, a longstanding bugaboo in Denver. But he, too, has made his share of questionable decisions, not the least of which was the re-hiring of former head coach Vance Joseph as defensive coordinator. Overall, Payton is an upgrade over his predecessor — that's not saying much, admittedly — but whether he's worth $18 million per year is less objective.

2. Is Russell Wilson's improvement legitimate? Is he back to being a top 10 quarterback?

ZK: If you believe wins are a quarterback stat, then no. (I don't.) However, the data to this point is overwhelming. Entering Week 6, Wilson is tied for second in the NFL in touchdown passes (11) and ranks fourth in passer rating (106.1). He's also tied for first in completions of 40-plus yards (5) and eighth in completions of 20-plus yards (18). And just for good measure: 10th in rushing yards (119) among starting QBs. Again, it hasn't come out in the wash, but if you grind the film instead of perusing the box scores, there's a legitimate case for top-10 placement.

3. What's the root of the defensive struggles? Is there any hope for this unit to bounce back?

ZK: The root of the issue is, as mentioned, Joseph, who's never fielded an elite defensive unit across his eight years of coordinator experience. He took what was a very solid 2022 outfit — with mostly the same personnel — and turned them into, quite literally, the worst defense of all time according to DVOA. The same defense that lost to Sam Howell in his first NFL road start; that failed to record a single sack or pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo; that surrendered a career day to a down-bad Justin Fields; and that allowed Zach Wilson to post his highest completion percentage of the season. So, is there any hope for them to bounce back? Not unless and until Joseph is relieved of his duties.

4. Explain how Denver could look to attack KC on both sides

ZK: Besides praying for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce to suffer a nasty bout of food poisoning before the game, the Broncos' strategy on defense will be the same as any other team facing the Chiefs: keep their offense on the sideline for as long as possible. If Joseph grows a brain by kickoff, it's also possible that we see All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II guarding Kelce, a notorious Broncos killer. It could (and probably will) be a long night, regardless. On offense, I expect Payton to employ a run-heavy attack with the return of RB Javonte Williams and the emergence of undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin. They'll use play-action to set up deep shots to WRs Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims, something Wilson excels at.

5. How do you see this game playing out and who ends up winning?

ZK: Like the last 15 matchups between the rivals — with Kansas City emerging victorious. The Broncos simply don't have the horses nor the coaching to slow down Mahomes and company, and the Chiefs are surprisingly stingy on defense, which may pose a problem for a Denver offense that tends to fizzle out in the second half. It's possible the game is a tad closer if the Chiefs play down to their competition, but even then, the streak will continue for at least another week as the Broncos prepare to enter a full-scale rebuild.

For additional coverage of the Broncos, be sure to follow Zack's work on X @KelbermanNFL and check out Mile High Huddle or in-depth Broncos content.

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