The NFL's most one-sided matchup is almost here, a game between the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the 0-7 Adam Gase-led New York Jets. Prior to this game, the Chiefs became 6-1 after defeating the Denver Broncos 43-16.
Stat to Know: The Jets have the worst offense in the NFL by a wide margin.
The Jets rank dead last in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play at -0.177, with an EPA per run of -0.259 and a 31st-ranked EPA per dropback at -0.125, only trailing the Broncos. They are also 32nd in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) grading for Team Offense at 58.5, Team Passing at 44.4 and Team Receiving at 58.8. On top of that, the Jets have 85 points scored this season, 30 less than any other team. (The New England Patriots have 115.)
Matchup to Watch: Chiefs receivers vs. Jets secondary
As we know, the Chiefs' passing offense is as explosive as any in NFL history, even the best defenses struggle to handle it. The Jets are certainly not that.
The Jets defense ranks 31st in EPA allowed per dropback, just behind the Jaguars, and they rank 32nd in dropback success rate at an incredible 63%. The highest dropback success rate for an offense is the Titans' 58.5%! This is despite having some talent in their secondary with cornerbacks Brian Poole and Pierre Desir along with safeties Marcus Maye, Bradley McDougald and Ashtyn Davis. The Chiefs should be consistently attacking this secondary with their overwhelming talent and make a statement with this game.
Key to the Game: Can the Jets get a run game going?
We all know about the Chiefs' interior defensive line and their ability to stop the run with Mike Pennel, Derrick Nnadi, Khalen Saunders, Tershawn Wharton, and yes, Chris Jones. This group is more than capable of stopping a run game, and they have done it multiple times this season, but they and the rest of the defense still rank 26th in EPA allowed per rush. So with that, how will they look against the Jets?
The Jets' run game is led by their young tackles, Chuma Edoga and Mekhi Becton. Despite them, the run game is not there with both of their primary running backs, Frank Gore and La'Mical Perine, combining for 432 rushing yards and 3.6 yards per carry. While it'd be preferable for it to be Sam Darnold showing out in this game, the Chiefs' defense is much better against the pass and Darnold is having a tough year. The Jets' best bet may be seeing how the run game looks in this one.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Jets 10
As much as I want to predict a 50-point blowout win, that still seems unlikely in the grand scheme of things. The Chiefs should still control and dominate this game, so do not fret about how much they cover the spread by.