Predicting Chiefs’ and Other 2022 NFL Over/Under Win Totals
This week, the 2022 NFL regular season officially begins. For all 32 teams, that provides an opportunity for a fresh start and the ability to make something of themselves over the course of the next several months. For clubs like the Kansas City Chiefs, they have more hope than many others as the season begins. Despite undergoing a ton of changes during the offseason, Andy Reid's bunch still projects to be one of the best in the league.
Speaking of projections, team win totals are an interesting subject to dive into. While some will outperform their over/under, others will fall short and miss either the postseason, their preseason win total, or both. As of the publishing of this article, Kansas City's line is set at 10.5 wins. Will Patrick Mahomes and company manage to exceed that, or is a noticeable step back from last season in the cards? Let's find out by making an over or under pick for every NFL team's 2022 projected win total.
All team regular season win odds are courtesy of the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (9.5): OVER
Cincinnati Bengals (9.5): OVER
Cleveland Browns (9.5): UNDER
Pittsburgh Steelers (7.5): UNDER
Division Analysis: The Bengals, last year's AFC representative in the Super Bowl, should be back in (mostly) full force this season en route to double-digit wins. If the Ravens can stay healthy, they're a good bet to bounce back and have a good year as well and possibly even be a dark horse threat in the AFC. The absence of Deshaun Watson will doom the Browns' 2022 season, so a losing record makes a ton of sense to pick. Mike Tomlin is still waiting to experience a losing season in Pittsburgh and while his Steelers very well could be better this year, they could also finally see their luck run out in a stacked AFC.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (9.5): OVER
Tennessee Titans (8.5): UNDER
Jacksonville Jaguars (6.5): UNDER
Houston Texans (4.5): UNDER
Division Analysis: The addition of quarterback Matt Ryan isn't quite as big of a get as some believe, but the aging veteran should still be enough to lead the Colts to double-digit wins and a division crown. The Titans, in this writer's opinion, are in for a decline of sorts as uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position and Derrick Henry's long-term health is legitimate. Jacksonville should be better than last year's three-win club, but not quite enough to secure seven wins. While the Texans somehow managed to win four contests a year ago, they seem like a good bet to merely duplicate that in 2022.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (11.5): OVER
Miami Dolphins (8.5): OVER
New England Patriots (8.5): UNDER
New York Jets (5.5): UNDER
Division Analysis: The Bills, despite not making it all the way to the final game of the year, were quite possibly the best team in the conference. That remains true now, and Buffalo is a leading favorite to secure the AFC's top seed. Behind them, two middling clubs in the Dolphins and Patriots both seem to have either 8-9 or 9-8 squads. It's tough to differentiate between the two but due to Miami's upside, let's take the over for them and the under for New England. Had the Jets been healthier to begin the year, picking them to win six games wouldn't have felt too crazy. They aren't healthy, though, and a 5-12 year would still be a one-game improvement from 2021.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (10.5): OVER
Los Angeles Chargers (10.5): OVER
Denver Broncos (9.5): UNDER
Las Vegas Raiders (8.5): UNDER
Division Analysis: Despite those aforementioned offseason changes, the Chiefs are still the top dog in the AFC West until proven otherwise. A brutal early schedule and a steep learning curve could lead to a bumpy start but by November, Kansas City should be humming along and able to salvage around 11 or 12 wins on the year. It's well known on Twitter that "the Chargers will always Charger," but they deserve respect. Second-year head coach Brandon Staley has the players he wants up front on defense, and quarterback Justin Herbert is a top-five talent in the game. This is the year the Chargers make the postseason and maybe even challenge for the division crown.
While adding Russell Wilson is undoubtedly a good move for the Broncos, their defense could take enough of a step back that it's hard to see them maxing out at anything better than 10-7. Let's give them nine wins, although it's a tough call. The Raiders, on paper, have many reasons to be just as good as last season when they won 10 ball games. There are still plenty of questions regarding them, however, and an 8-9 2022 is absolutely in the cards.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers (11.5): UNDER
Minnesota Vikings (9.5): OVER
Detroit Lions (6.5): UNDER
Chicago Bears (6.5): UNDER
Division Analysis: Regardless of who Aaron Rodgers is throwing to, the future Hall of Famer is going to get the job done well enough to do some regular season damage. It remains to be seen how productive the Packers will be come playoff time, but even taking the under here still secures an 11-6 campaign. The Vikings' new era of football should lead to another win or two in the standings, allowing them to hit the 10-win mark. Detroit or Chicago (or both) could prove me wrong here, and they'll both be fun to watch in spurts this year, but there's still a lot missing. Both clubs win six games this year, although a Dan Campbell team exceeding expectations would be an awesome thing to see.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11.5): OVER
New Orleans Saints (8.5): OVER
Carolina Panthers (6.5): UNDER
Atlanta Falcons (4.5): UNDER
Division Analysis: Tom Brady is back, so the Buccaneers are as well. They'll win 12 games in typical Tampa Bay fashion — a somewhat boring year where everyone waits for the playoffs to arrive. The Saints don't seem to be receiving nearly enough hype, as the offense returns formerly injured quarterback Jameis Winston and an improved group of receivers while maintaining a very good defense. Double-digit wins seems likely. Carolina will be better with Baker Mayfield at the helm and while six wins does seem a bit low, seven or eight is just hard to envision without it actually happening first. The Falcons are clearly rebuilding and may struggle to even reach the four-win mark in 2022.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (10.5): UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles (9.5): OVER
Washington Commanders (7.5): OVER
New York Giants (6.5): UNDER
Division Analysis: If there's one "top" team that's likely to take a step back in the NFC, it's the Cowboys. They simply have too many question marks to replicate 2021's 12-5 record. Behind them, the Eagles quietly won nine games a year ago and have a markedly better roster now as well. If quarterback Jalen Hurts progresses at all, this has the look of a playoff team and possibly a division champ. Speaking of quiet wins, Washington won seven outings in 2021 and while Carson Wentz is a very unstable quarterback, whatever positive contributions he has could be enough for an 8-9 finish. In this article, the Daniel Jones hype train comes to a screeching halt and the Giants struggle to win six games.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams (10.5): OVER
San Francisco 49ers (9.5): OVER
Arizona Cardinals (8.5): OVER
Seattle Seahawks (5.5): UNDER
Division Analysis: A 10.5-win over/under for the reigning Super Bowl champions seems low and while the Rams could have a bit of a hangover, it's not like going 11-6 would be anything to scoff at. San Francisco is entering murky water with young quarterback Trey Lance but if his good even slightly outweighs the bad, the 49ers should be feisty. The Cardinals may not be able to win 11 games again, but a 9-8 record seems suitable at the least. Seattle projects to be a possible contender for the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and it won't get there by going 6-11. Under it is, although maybe Geno Smith has a trick or two up his sleeve.
