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The AFC West Is an Interesting Place for Quarterback Contracts

The AFC West is full of quarterback talent, but it also has some big money invested.

The AFC West could have the best four quarterbacks representing a division in NFL history.

The intrigue of the group of quarterbacks in the AFC West also extends to their contracts. The four quarterbacks in the division represent all the spectrums of the quarterback contract landscape, and the most recent signing in the division might be the most interesting.

Nov 22, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr prepares to take the snap in the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

On April 13, Derek Carr signed a three-year, $121 million extension that adds on to the year remaining on his contract (which is around $20M). The money is a bit eye-popping for a quarterback who has been, at best, a fringe top-10 quarterback over his career. However, the contract details are fascinating.

First, Carr’s signing bonus was only $7.5M. The signing bonus is the main delivery mechanism of new money for players getting an extension, but Carr got a minimal one. Past the signing bonus, Carr has very little guaranteed money in this extension. Only his base salary this year is fully guaranteed at signing. 

His 2023 base salary and $7.5M of his 2024 base salary ($41.9M in total) are guaranteed for injury at signing. This 2023 base salary and part of his 2024 base salary will be fully guaranteed three days after the Super Bowl after the end of this coming year.

Basically, the contract vomit above boils down to one thing: Carr is on a two-year deal with two option years. With this new contract, the Raiders are not committing to him for four years — it is not even close to that. In 2024, if the Raiders want to cut Carr, they will take on around $11M in dead cap and make around $30M in salary cap space. That is, honestly, a great deal for the Raiders.

Nov 22, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) moves the ball against Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Frank Clark (55) during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Carr is the perfect example of how contract numbers can lie. A three-year, $121M extension seems like a lot on the surface, but over half of that new money is completely unprotected and easy for the Raiders to avoid. With this contract, the Raiders keep Carr around for another year and they have team control for a few more if Carr — in the new Josh McDaniels offense — looks better than how he has played up until now.

In a way, Carr’s contract is a lot like that of Patrick Mahomes. The innate flexibility in Carr’s contract is not the same as Mahomes’ contract, but both deals are team-friendly. The Chiefs have not used this flexibility yet, but I have already gone over how Mahomes’ contract will help the Chiefs going forward

When both quarterbacks were negotiating for their new contracts, Carr and Mahomes could have pushed for more guarantees and maximized their earnings if they truly wanted to. In seeing what contracts both players accepted, it is obvious that was not on their minds.

Unlike the Chiefs and Raiders, who already paid their quarterback, the Broncos and Chargers will be looking at new quarterback contracts in the near future.

Dec 16, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) moves the ball under pressure from Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Nick Bolton (54) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Chargers have the greatest advantage in the NFL, one that the Chiefs enjoyed just a few years ago. They have an elite quarterback, Justin Herbert, on a rookie contract. Herbert is only costing $7.2M against the Chargers' salary cap this year. That number is just $8.4M in 2023 and in 2024, Los Angeles can exercise Herbert’s fifth-year option. Frankly, the Chargers have the best quarterback situation — when combining player and contract — in the NFL.

While Herbert’s contract is a godsend, he is going to get a large chunk of change in due time. Most teams with elite, young quarterbacks recently (including the Chiefs) have elected to give their young quarterbacks extensions as soon as they can. For Herbert, that window starts after this year. 

With the salary cap expected to explode next year and Herbert playing like a top-five quarterback, he will break the bank in a way the NFL has not seen yet. Until that extension kicks in, however, the Chargers have a built-in advantage.

The biggest quarterback wildcard in the AFC West, in many ways, is Russell Wilson. Compared to Mahomes, Herbert and Carr, it is hard to project how Wilson will play as a member of the Denver Broncos. He has had a rough last two years, is in a new offense, and is on a new team. This uncertainty with his play in Denver is paired with uncertainty surrounding his contract.

Apr 8, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Bronco quarterback Russell Wilson (3) before the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

In 2019, Wilson signed a four-year, $140M extension with the Seattle Seahawks. Now, three years later, Wilson is primed to cash in once again. He only counts against the Broncos’ salary cap at $24M this year and $27M next year. While Wilson is not young, the Broncos are in a similar situation as the Chargers in the fact that if they wait to extend Wilson, it could get costly — and fast. 

Will Denver elect to extend Wilson without him playing a down for them? Will they wait and risk paying much more for him next year? It's a tough situation to balance and any contract Wilson signs this year will probably be around the $40M per year range. The Broncos got better at quarterback but in doing so, they now have to pay that quarterback soon.

How the AFC West sits right now at quarterback is something to behold. The four signal-callers in the division are probably all top-12 quarterbacks. It is incredibly rare to see that kind of talent at the game's most important position in one division.

The four teams do have wildly different financial situations, and that reality paints a clear picture. The Chargers have the most pressure on them currently, as the window is there right now for them. The contracts the other three quarterbacks are on do provide some great flexibility, however, and that means these teams can stock up on talent and duke it out. All the teams in the AFC West have been run well, loaded up, and the shootouts between these quarterbacks will be something to behold.