Without Tyreek Hill, the Only Way Is Forward for the Chiefs
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Well, that came out of nowhere.
Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach drew a line in the sand with Tyreek Hill that he would not cross on a new contract for the All-Pro wide receiver. Hill wanted more due to Davante Adams’ new contract, Veach said no, and that all led to Hill being a member of the Miami Dolphins now.
When thinking about this move with a non-emotional, roster-building hat on, it makes sense.
Nov 8, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates with tight end Travis Kelce (87) and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) after scoring against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Even with Patrick Mahomes’ contract being a steal for the Chiefs, if Veach had given both Hill and left tackle Orlando Brown market-value contracts, the Chiefs' salary cap would have looked rough in 2023 and potentially even worse in 2024. These are years the Chiefs are paying Mahomes a non-rookie deal contract, and the likes of the Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and New England Patriots have their quarterbacks at lower figures. They are already behind the 8-ball in multiple ways strictly due to timing and how the AFC looks.
However, when those teams have to pay their rookie quarterbacks, who could be sitting pretty? The Chiefs. This seems to be the logic Veach is operating under.
Veach, even when drawing that line in the sand with Hill on contract talks, was thinking of the future. He had a number he was not willing to exceed for a 28-year-old, speed-dependent wide receiver. That number appeared to be around $21 million APY.
That $21M APY line was probably the maximum Veach felt the Chiefs could give while still having flexibility in future years to make serious plays at free agents in 2023 and 2024 as the salary cap explodes and the Chiefs get breathing room. He wants the Chiefs' second championship window under Mahomes to line up with the soon-to-be gargantuan quarterback contracts for Herbert, Burrow, and the like.
Paying Hill the Dolphins contract does not provide that flexibility. So, how will flexibility manifest itself for the rest of the offseason for the Chiefs? Cheap veterans and the most important Chiefs draft under Veach.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (83) scores a touchdown on a 75-yard touchdown during the fourth quarter of their game Sunday, November 21, 2021 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn. The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 34-31. Packers22 34
With Marquez Valdes-Scantling reportedly either in Kansas City for a visit or already having done so, that indicates that a platoon at wide receiver this year seems likely. No one wide receiver will replace Hill, but the Chiefs could replace some of his attributes with multiple receivers. Valdes-Scantling, for example, could fill in as the Chiefs field-stretching, speedy "Z" wideout well. Pair him, JuJu Smith-Schuster and a first-round rookie like George Pickens together, and now the wide receiver corps has some quality talent on cost-controlled deals.
Valdes-Scantling is the type of player with a possible contract the Chiefs need to consider right now. There is no logic in going out and trading for someone like DK Metcalf if the reason Tyreek Hill was traded was purely money. If the Chiefs have to give up a first round pick and pay DK Metcalf $22M a year, then why not just keep Hill and try to meet his monetary demands? Metcalf, at that price, also squeezes the salary cap in 2023 and 2024.
With the Hill trade, the Chiefs have salary cap room to spend. Even when a litany of smaller deals goes onto the books to chip away at their current $28M in space, the team will probably still have north of $20M in salary cap room still to play with.
This salary cap space can be spent on players like the previously mentioned Valdes-Scantling, or even veterans like Stephon Gilmore, James Bradberry, Melvin Ingram and more. The names are not exciting, and especially not as exciting as seeing Hill catch passes from Patrick Mahomes, but they fill much-needed holes this year and let the Chiefs look for value in the draft.
Dec 5, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Melvin Ingram III (24) celebrates with defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) and cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (38) after a play against the Denver Broncos during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
The draft is the other dynamic to the Hill trade. Veach has not made more than six picks in one draft since becoming general manager, and now he is sitting with 12 draft picks in his bag — with half of those draft picks being on days one and two of the draft. That is some serious draft capital that Veach has not had before, and it brings more pressure on him to hit on the picks.
If the Chiefs miss on the draft picks they got for Hill, it does not matter that the players they got are cost-controlled because the roster will be devoid of any premium talent. The Chiefs currently do not have Pro Bowl level players at three positions the NFL seems to deem important: wide receiver, edge rusher, and cornerback. How much talent deficiency can Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes cover for? If Veach misses on his 2022 draft class, it feels like no one can cover for that now.
Trading away Hill is the signal of the end of an era in Kansas City, an era defined by home run draft picks by John Dorsey whom Veach will eventually move on from. Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and Patrick Mahomes were the core the Chiefs built around to make it to two Super Bowls and ultimately win one, and now that core's run is coming to an end.
It is on Veach now to reshape the Chiefs' roster. Many teams over the last decade have failed this step with their own franchise-altering quarterback, like the Seattle Seahawks with Russell Wilson and the Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers. Trading Hill could be a difficult, but necessary, move to ensure that this transition succeeds where the others have failed.
Veach has raised the stakes on himself. By refusing to budge on how much he would pay Hill, this outcome always remained a possibility. Now he has to bet on himself, his front office, and the Chiefs' coaches to build a roster for the future rather than one for just 2022.
The logic makes sense, but it still stings all the same.
Feb 28, 2019; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach speaks to the media during the 2019 NFL Combine at the Indianapolis Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
