Fantasy Analyst Backs Jerick McKinnon to Repeat Success in 2023

A lot of the Kansas City Chiefs' production down the stretch came from a somewhat unexpected but also much-appreciated source: running back Jerick McKinnon.

In his age-30 season, the veteran halfback experienced middling success on the ground. Carrying the ball 72 times for 291 yards and just one touchdown, he was a quality reserve but not much more. The passing game, however, was where McKinnon earned his keep and then some. He posted career-best marks in receptions (56), receiving yards (512), yards per reception (9.1) and receiving touchdowns (9). The majority of that production came from Week 7 onward, which was a testament to the Chiefs' efforts to manage his pitch count at least a bit. Despite that, he played a larger role than anyone thought he would in 2022.

Will another year of age and reps on McKinnon's resume cause him to slow down? What about a potentially altered role now that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is back in the fold and undrafted free agent Deneric Prince has taken training camp by storm? None of that is worrying NFL.com's Matt Okada, as the fantasy football analyst is backing McKinnon to repeat as a fringe top 20 running back in point-per-reception formats:

The example set by the Chiefs does not exactly help the cause of top-tier running backs seeking top-tier contracts, given that Kansas City won Super Bowl LVII while featuring seventh-round draft pick Isiah Pacheco and backup-journeyman Jerick McKinnon at the position. (Oh, and while making Clyde Edwards-Helaire, in whom the Chiefs invested a first-round pick in 2020, a healthy scratch.)

This offseason, McKinnon signed a contract (one year, $1.3 million) similar to what he played on in 2022, and there's little reason to expect Kansas City to abandon his usage as the primary receiving back -- a role he acquired midway through the year but converted into 56 catches, nine receiving TDs and a finish as the RB20 in PPR formats. While much of his production seems unsustainable on the surface, his quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. When there are 40-plus receiving touchdowns to go around, nothing is unsustainable.

While it's likely that McKinnon has his fair share of successful moments and games this season, banking on him to replicate what he did in 2022 is risky. Not only is he another year removed from the running back "cliff" at age 30, but he was also a frequent guest on the team's injury report down the stretch of last season and appeared to be running out of steam near the end of the year. None of that is to say that the former third-round pick can't be a valued member of Kansas City's running back committee, but him finishing as RB20, as Okada hints at, isn't a safe bet.

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