The Spags Magic Number: The Threshold That Defines Chiefs

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The Chiefs carry into the Mile High City some impressive won-loss records. Andy Reid is 22-4 (.846) in games immediately following regular-season byes, best in NFL history.

Patrick Mahomes is 36-6 (.857) against the AFC West, the best mark by a starting quarterback against his own division since the league merger.

But there’s another won-loss mark the Chiefs will put on the line in their showdown at Denver on Sunday (3:25 p.m. CT, CBS/KCTV, Channel 5, 96.5 The Fan), and it’s more important to how they ultimately end this enigmatic 2025 season.

Steve Spagnulo and 22 points.

steve spagnuol — Jan 7, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo looks on during the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images | Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

Since that 2022 kickoff

Since the beginning of 2022, the Chiefs are 40-6 (.870) when allowing 22 points or less, including postseason. They’re 5-1 this season, their only loss a 20-17 setback in the Week 2 Super Bowl rematch against the Eagles.

And even more impressive over that stretch of 3½ seasons is the Chiefs’ ability to get better as the playoffs approach, in the back half of the year.

alvin kamara, trent mcduffi — Oct 7, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

“We have been able to do that,” Spagnuolo said Thursday. “I hope that continues, because we do need to get better. I give all the credit to the to the assistant coaches and the players. I mean, you got to have coaches that feed it and keep working at it, which our guys do, and then you got to have cerebral players that embrace it, want to get better.”

Those coaches and cerebral players last year took it upon themselves to nail down the AFC’s only first-round bye and No. 1 seed. Over a five-game stretch from Weeks 13-17, the Chiefs allowed just 14.0 points per game, in turn allowing them to rest their starters for the season finale at Denver.

george karlaftis, chris jone — Dec 8, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) and defensive end George Karlaftis (56) get ready before the snap during the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Chasing improvement

“We always talk about chasing improvement,” Spagnuolo added, “and that's what our guys do. Not every team has that, I don't think, but we're blessed that we got guys that think that way.”

They thought that way in 2023, when Kansas City incredibly allowed 22 points or less in 18 of its 20 games, including postseason. The Chiefs finished 14-4 in those games. Beginning with a 19-8 win over Denver, Kansas City averaged only 17.3 points allowed over its final 16 outings, including Super Bowl 58.

patrick mahomes, aidan hutchinso — Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) looks to tackle Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. on Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kansas City’s .870 winning percentage isn’t even best in the league, either, showing that allowing more than 22 points is a league-wide harbinger. When allowing 22-or-fewer points, Detroit actually owns the league’s best mark in that stretch (27-2, .931). Buffalo (37-3, .925) is second, followed by Dallas (28-3, .903) and Philadelphia (39-5, .886).

According to Elias Sports Bureau, the Chiefs are fifth. But with Denver’s elite defense, that 22-point threshold should factor heavily into Sunday’s game. Spagnuolo said keeping Bo Nix and Denver’s rhythm offense unsettled will be important, and to do that, he’ll have new wrinkles up his polo shirtsleeves.

“Yeah, I mean, as the season goes, we try to add because we feel like we can with our guys,” Spagnuolo said. “And I think you can only do that if you got trust in the guys are going to pick it up and do it. So, there was part of that.”

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