Where Chiefs Stack Up in AFC West After Free Agency

Draft will provide some weapons, but division rosters are fairly set and there's clearly one team to beat.

Sep 8, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) jumps over a tackle attempt by Denver Broncos cornerback JaQuan McMillian (29) during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Division titles and No. 1-overall draft choices might as well be oil and water.

They don’t mix. Never in NFL history has an NFL team won its division the year in which it drafted the first-overall player in April. Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts were closest, finishing 11-5 in 2012. Generally, for teams like the Las Vegas Raiders who are expected to take Fernando Mendoza with the first-overall choice next month, the following year is the money season.

Jan 19, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) passes the ball under pressure by Miami Hurricanes defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. (4) in the third quarter during the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

So, now that history has eliminated the Raiders, what about the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos? Isaac Rochell, who played six of his eight NFL seasons in the AFC West, believes the division is the league's most up for grabs in 2026.

“We know who the Chargers can be when they're healthy,” the former defensive end said on Wednesday’s edition of Good Morning Football. “They started last season as one of the best teams in the NFL, no doubt.

“Did we plan on Kenneth Walker going to the Chiefs? No, we thought he was gonna be in Seattle, but he's there. And now this offense has everything is coming together. Eric Bieniemy’s  back and the band is back together. And then lastly, the Broncos. We know who the Broncos are. They almost went to the Super Bowl.”

Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots defensive lineman Khyiris Tonga (95) sacks Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) in the second quarter in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Almost. Thanks in part to new Chiefs nose tackle Khyiris Tonga, the Broncos’ offense looked like snow on a stove in the AFC championship game. And after that loss, Denver made the AFC West’s fewest offseason moves. No doubt, the Broncos plan to run it back with the same roster.

With one significant exception. While Brett Veach boldly sent All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams for valuable draft capital, Denver made the division’s boldest offseason move. The Broncos acquired Jaylen Waddle in a St. Patrick’s Day shocker.

Nov 17, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs with the football against Las Vegas Raiders cornerback Jack Jones (18) during the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

1-Denver

Whether the 27-year-old wide receiver and his three 1,000-yard seasons is the missing piece, the world will learn January. But until another team keeps the Broncos from defending their division title, Denver has to be favored. Luck was a big part of Denver's success, however. The Broncos will need to play well again in one-score games, success the Chiefs couldn't repeat in 2025.

2-Kansas City

Walker gets all the attention, something that’ll continue into opponent gameplans this fall. But the Chiefs’ best move in free agency was signing cornerback Kader Kohou to fill a massive void at slot corner (McDuffie’s old stomping grounds). Kohou isn’t McDuffie, but he’s hungry and ready to work. Veach also found former Chargers safety Alohi Gilman to mortar over a big gap in the back of the defense. Tonga, running back Emari Demercado and re-signing wide receiver Tyquan Thornton and tight end Travis Kelce will also pay big dividends in the division race. And no one will want to play the Chiefs as a wild-card team in the AFC playoffs.

Jan 3, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers player Alohi Gilman (32) defends against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

3-L.A. Chargers

While Denver made the fewest moves, the Raiders improved the most and Kansas City was the most strategic, the Chargers upgraded the least. Armed with cap room, they didn’t even sign the best center in the division. While the Raiders inked Tyler Linderbaum, the Chargers landed Tyler Biadasz to replace a retired Bradley Bozeman. They also signed Charlie Kolar, a tight end known more for his blocking than ability to produce catches. The biggest threat Los Angeles presents is new offensive coordinator and former Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel. However, the Chargers also lost defensive mastermind Jesse Minter, now Baltimore’s head coach.

Sep 28, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Chris Jones (95) talks to Baltimore Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum (64) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

4-Las Vegas

Don’t expect the Raiders to win the division due to NFL precedent that writes off teams with top-overall draft picks, but don’t expect them to finish 4-13, either. The Raiders not only improved most in the AFC West during free agency; they improved most in the entire league. Ideally, Mendoza will begin his career behind a veteran, to-be-determined veteran but Linderbaum will ease the transition. Ashton Jeanty should make an exponential leap in Year 2 under new head coach Klint Kubiak, fresh off a Super Bowl victory with Seattle. And while Las Vegas isn’t expected to reach the playoffs this year, strap in for this scary thought: The Raiders could play an easy last-place schedule in 2027.