Why Are the Colts' Yards After Catch Numbers Down in 2021?
The Indianapolis Colts' fanbase broke into a frenzy today when IndyStar writer Joel Erickson commented on the team's massive drop-off in yards per attempt and yards after catch this season (it was in response to this article he wrote, I highly recommend checking it out).
The fanbase effectively split on the topic. The Carson Wentz supporters shifted the blame to the Colts' pass catchers, aside from Michael Pittman Jr, and their inability to generate separation and yards after the catch. The Wentz detractors pointed the blame at the veteran quarterback and his struggles on the year.
The actual answer is a bit more nuanced than what can be said within the constraints of social media. In this article, I dive into every reason why the Colts' offense has dropped off the map in yards after the catch in 2021.
The Statistical Drop-Off
To add stats to this conversation, the Colts had 2,239 yards after the catch in 2020, which was good for 6th-best in the NFL. They also averaged 6.0 yards after the catch per completion, which was tied with the Green Bay Packers for second-best in the NFL.
It has been a completely different story in 2021, however. The Colts have accumulated just 1,586 yards after the catch, which is currently the 5th-worst in the league. Their 5.2 yards after catch per completion is fairly average, however, as it ranks as 18th-best in the league.
While the overall efficiency has seen a decent drop, the raw total has monumentally dropped to near the bottom in the league. What possibly could have changed between 2020 and 2021?
The Quarterback Change is the Main Factor
At the end of the day, it is hard to look at anything other than the quarterback change as the reason for this drop-off. The Colts' top five receivers in 2021 (Pittman Jr, Jack Doyle, T.Y Hilton, Zach Pascal, and Mo Alie-Cox) were the same players that were in Indy a year ago with Philip Rivers.
Unless we are positing that all of those players simply regressed over the past year, the obvious conclusion we have to draw is that the quarterback change is drastically impacting this one stat.
Now for the biggest question. Does this mean that Carson Wentz is bad or that this is all "his fault" for this drop-off? The answer is (mostly) NO.
The Colts Run a Much Different Offense in 2021
While it is still the same team with the same weapons and the same play-caller, this offense is drastically different than the one run by Philip Rivers in 2020. Here are some numbers to add to that statement:
- The Colts run-pass split in 2020 was 45.4-54.6 in favor of the pass. In 2021, the run percentage has jumped up to 49.5%.
- Through 16 games last year, Rivers attempted 543 passes. Through 16 games this year, Wentz has attempted just 487 passes.
- Rivers also threw for more yards and was much more efficient. Rivers completed 68% of his passes and threw for 4,169 yards. Wentz has completed 62.6% of his passes and thrown for 3,378 yards
The Colts' offense has effectively transitioned to a run-heavy system that asks much less of Wentz than it did of Rivers a year ago. Here is what Offensive Coordinator Marcus Brady had to say on the topic today in his press conference:
Philip (Rivers) was different. He was getting the ball to them right now and they had to create a lot of their yards after the catch where as we try to push the ball a little bit down the field where yes, you may make the big catch but it’s catch and tackle for a 30-yard gain. It’s just a different style of offense that we play this year.
To add some context to what Brady is saying here, the offense is much different in how it attacks opposing defenses. Rivers liked to attack defenses by using his running backs and underneath throws.
Boasting a much bigger arm than Rivers, Wentz opened up the playbook a bit more. He likes to attack the outside of the defense and use the sideline more down the field. In fact, Wentz has attempted more passes outside the numbers (10+ yards down the field) than Rivers did last year despite having 56 less attempts.
Here is some examples of how Wentz prefers to attack a defense. He likes play-action passes that allow him to either attack the outside of the defense or passes that allow his receivers to sit down in tight zones over the middle.
This is where there will be a bit of a drop-off in yards after catch. Rivers was continually getting the ball to Nyheim Hines and other players underneath and in space. Wentz opts to attack further down the field where his receivers have less room to create after the catch.
The Colts tailor their offense to the quarterback, not the other way around. So, with these plays being Wentz's preference, other passing concepts have somewhat been phased out.
Some routes, such as shallow crossers and mesh concepts, have been taken out of the playbook because Wentz just doesn't often throw those routes:
It is a push-pull in the grand scheme of the offense, but that is why we are seeing less yards after catch opportunities and less of those easy, run after catch opportunities.
While all of that explains the numbers being down on the year, I do have to address the elephant in the room as well...
Wentz Has Certainly Struggled of Late
While he has been average to above average this season overall, he has had some struggles in recent weeks with his play. He has had moments of brilliance (Tampa Bay game/4th quarter drive against the Cardinals), but his recent play has certainly hurt any raw numbers we are looking at.
In the last month, he has thrown for just 588 yards (in four games) and boasted a meager 6.6 yards per attempt in that span. For a quarterback that's game doesn't rely on efficiency, the big plays have to be there. When they aren't, you get the struggles we have seen from him of late.
These clips below are a good example of some plays where he could have had big yards after catch numbers if he simply found his checkdown sooner or threw an accurate pass. While the overall drop in this number isn't solely on him, these throws are why some will point the blame directly at the quarterback.
I'm certainly not alone in saying that Wentz needs to improve for the Colts to make a real run in these playoffs. If he can just find some consistency and hit more of his highs, then this team can go a long way.
Final Thoughts
In looking at one raw number, such as yards after catch, it is hard not to do a direct comparison of Philip Rivers last year to Carson Wentz this season. The main issue with that is that these two quarterbacks are running vastly different offenses.
Rivers was asked to get the ball out quick and let his skill players do the work for him. Wentz has been asked to hand the ball off and make the occasional chunk play down the field. Wentz has struggled with that latter point in recent weeks, but it is nearly impossible to compare the two side by side.
At the end of the day, yes, Wentz is the main reason why the yards after catch numbers have dropped drastically. It doesn't mean that this style of offense is necessarily bad though, it is just different.
With the Colts averaging the seventh-most points per game in the league, it is hard to argue with the results. This offense may be less efficient and less consistent than last year's, but it is still getting the job done.
If Wentz can improve on his play from this past week (and the Patriots' game), this team can go far in the playoffs. That is the biggest question though, not why the team has dropped off in yards after catch.
Follow Zach on Twitter @ZachHicks2.
