The +1 Quarterback: Scrambling and Sack Negation are Key
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The Indianapolis Colts are trying their hand at developing a new-age quarterback with the young athletic phenom Anthony Richardson. While Richardson still needs to grow a bit as a passer, his innate playmaking ability should impact the Colts' offense in numerous ways.
The last article in this series discussed how a rushing quarterback adds value in the ground game and gives the offense a numbers advantage on those calls. Today, we will be diving into arguably the most important aspects of having a quarterback like Richardson; sack negation and scrambling efficiency.
Why are these two metrics so valuable for quarterbacks? Let's dive into today..
Sack Avoidance/Negation
The ability to avoid sacks is one of the most important attributes that a quarterback can possess in today's game. With spacing being so limited and defenses sitting back waiting for an offense to make a mistake, a sack can be an absolute drive killer for so many teams.
Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight wrote a piece a few years back that looked at the impact a sack had on the success of the drive where the sack occurred. His article primarily looked at data from 2017-2019, but the results were quite interesting.
According to Hermsmeyer, teams were 18.4% more likely to have a drive end in a punt if a sack occurred on that drive. His findings found that teams were around 20% more likely to not come away with points on these drives compared to drives without allowing a sack.
The same, however, can’t be said for sacks. Sacks are always bad for the offense — they only vary in degree. In fact, when a drive includes at least one sack of the opposing QB, defenses went on to force a punt over 18 percentage points more often than on drives with no sacks.
If offenses are punting more often on series when they take a sack, it makes sense that scoring drives on those series are also less frequent. From 2017 to 2019, drives culminating in touchdown passes occurred 10.9 percentage points less frequently when the QB was sacked, and fumbles occurred 5.4 percentage points more frequently.
Sacks can be absolutely back-breaking for an offense, so it is important to have a quarterback that understands how to deal with pressure and how to avoid these near-death sentences as frequently as possible. One way that we can add numbers to this ability is through pressure to sack percentage.
Pro Football Focus tracks this number by accounting for how many sacks a quarterback takes relative to the number of times they are under pressure. If a quarterback is getting sacked on 20% or more of their pressures, they are struggling to avoid rushers and negate negative plays. If a quarterback is keeping this number under 10%, they are creating more chances for their offense.
Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Ben Roethlisberger are among the quarterbacks that have led the league in this metric in recent years (all with numbers at or around 10%) while quarterbacks such as Justin Fields and Russell Wilson have had extremely high pressure to sack numbers (Fields was near 30% a year ago).
For comparison's sake, Matt Ryan was the fifth worst in the NFL in this metric, taking a sack on 22.2% of his overall pressures last season. Richardson, at the college level, kept this number at just 9.2%. This alone is a massive bonus to an offense that struggled mightily in 2022.
If this point I'm making needs even more evidence, Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) of Sumer Sports tweeted back in February about the importance of avoiding sacks as it relates to EPA per play:
So, going off of what Tej is talking about above, this 10-yard pass completion by Richardson against Tennessee is the same value as a 31-yard explosive play. The simple ability to negate a sack and turn that into positive yards can drastically change the overall result of a drive.
This is an aspect that will be completely new for the Colts in 2023 compared to last season's disaster. A quarterback that understands how to avoid these killer plays, and can even turn them into positive gains, is a major asset in today's game.
Scrambling Efficiency
The other way that a mobile quarterback can drastically change a game is through scrambles. Obviously, the optimal outcome on a given pass play is the quarterback finding an open receiver and picking up positive yards that way BUT all yards are created equal in football. The goal is simply getting down the field and scoring points, it doesn't matter how this goal is accomplished.
Scrambling may have a bit of a negative stigma around it, but it is a highly efficient way for an offense to create value. Ben Solak of The Ringer wrote an outstanding piece on the subject last season when the Colts ultimately made the move from Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger halfway through the season:
Put another way: Patrick Mahomes leads the league in EPA per pass attempt at .532. The average quarterback scramble this season is more valuable than any quarterback’s pass attempt, save for Mahomes. And even then, get this: Mahomes’s EPA per pass attempt is .532, and his EPA per scramble is .603. Mahomes is a more valuable scrambler than he is thrower—and he’s the best thrower in the league.
If these numbers seem preposterous, it’s because they are. There is some noise in the data. A disproportionate number of scrambles happen on third downs, when quarterbacks are just trying to get to the sticks—and when they do, they score a huge victory in EPA. But on first and second downs only, the average scramble (.298 EPA/play) is still worth much more than the average pass attempt (.193).
While scrambling is, on paper, the most efficient way to create value with an offense, it still isn't the optimal route to take on every play. It is, however, a massive bonus when a quarterback has the ability to create these positive gains with their legs.
To add some more numbers to this conversation, there were four quarterbacks last season with over 70 total rushing attempts. Lamar Jackson (8.24), Justin Fields (10.3), Daniel Jones (7.7), and Jalen Hurts (7.75) each had a yards-per-carry of over 7.0 on these attempts. That is a healthy chunk of extra plays from these quarterbacks that resulted in valuable yardage for the offense.
Richardson appears to be the next quarterback coming into the league with the ability to add value through scrambling. Richardson averaged a whopping 12.6 yards per carry on 32 scrambles a year ago, including two rushing touchdowns of over 50 yards.
While we want Richardson to improve as a passer and become more consistent in that area of his game, his ability to create positive outcomes on scrambles only raises his floor for what he could do in year one (and going forward).
The Bottom Line
At the end of the day, the NFL is a passing league so it is paramount that a quarterback be efficient and effective in that area of the game. However, that doesn't mean that quarterbacks can't raise their value (and their overall floor) in other ways.
The ability to negate sacks and the ability to scramble efficiently has a tangible impact on an offense. These two attributes add the potential for explosives on any given play and improve the chances that a drive can end in success. Essentially, a quarterback with these two attributes gives an offense a high floor and a high ceiling.
While there are obviously so many more elements to playing the position, this is a fantastic sign for a quarterback of Richardson's talent coming into the league. If he can just grow as a passer and find some more consistency there, we could be looking at one of the league's next great quarterbacks.
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