Buy or Sell Colts Wide Receiver T.Y. Hilton as Fantasy Pick?

INDIANAPOLIS — At the risk of divulging too much information to my rather competitive fantasy freaks in the Terry Hutchens Indy Roto League, the Thursday request to opine on the value of Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton for a Sports Illustrated video presented a bit of a dilemma.

Never let the likes of Mark Lazar, Greg Schmalfeldt, Tim “Oscar” Tenbarge, and certainly not Tom Miner know what you’re thinking before, during, or even after a fantasy draft. It’s a serious collection of Southside Indy sports fans, who for some reason derive particular pleasure out of the kicking the stuffing out of a certain scribe on an annual basis.

OK, they will read that last paragraph and say, “No, not really. We just expect that to happen with the way you always draft.”

Two years removed from winning the championship as the eighth and final playoff seed — which required knocking off Miner’s No. 1 seed in the first round (it still eats at him!) — how quickly these sordid degenerates forget.

To be honest, aside from enjoying fantasy football and fantasy baseball, I don’t write many stories about it because there are far too many other people out there who study it religiously and have done the necessary work to be more informed in preparing the draft sheets our league religiously studies. We compile a list of picks in the order of perceived value, or in my case, the laptop browser has two or three roto sites open and selections are made on the fly based on a small sample size from experts.

There, too much info shared again.

As far as Hilton goes, the video above for SI.com/Fantasy reveals I’m buying Hilton as a solid fantasy sleeper pick. By sleeper, that means he’s not Julio Jones and nobody should be jumping too early to get him when running backs typically generate the most points. But because Hilton is coming off a career-low season in which he missed six games due to a calf injury, his stock will fall for many if not most of my competitors.

That’s why taking him in the fourth round or later might raise eyebrows around the Schmalfeldt or Lazar basement, but so be it. If Hilton stays healthy, he will put up decent fantasy numbers. One of my usual rules is to not select a Colts player because I write about the team and there's no cheering in the press box. But that said, we all want to win, right?

Hilton has a quarterback in Philip Rivers who will fling the ball deep, something 2019 passer Jacoby Brissett didn’t do enough, hence Hilton’s long reception being a paltry 35 yards. When Andrew Luck was throwing to T.Y., the speedy deep threat’s seasonal averages were 72 receptions for 1,149 yards and just a fraction under six TDs. Even injured, Hilton had five TDs last season.

Since entering his 2012 arrival in the third round as the 13th wide receiver selected, Hilton has 33 career 100-yard receiving games. Just Julio Jones (50) and Antonio Brown (39) have more.

Some will mention how Rivers appeared to lack arm strength last season, when his flat-footed, desperation heaves because of porous protection produced 20 interceptions — and eight more were dropped. Even Colts coach Frank Reich has acknowledged that must improve, but as Rivers’ former offensive coordinator with the Chargers, Reich sees the same smart passer who can air it out if necessary and has Hall of Fame-worthy numbers — his 59,271 passing yards and 397 passing TDs rank sixth all-time.

Here’s a telling stat about Rivers: Since 2018, Rivers ranks third in 20-plus-yard completions at 117, trailing just Patrick Mahomes (124) and Jared Goff (141). Even at 38 and entering his 17th season, Rivers is a gunslinger who won’t hesitate to open up defenses with a deeper throw. That’s what Hilton needs.

And forget about that injury-prone stuff some fantasy owners will needle you about Hilton. He missed just four games in his previous seven seasons before 2019. He played in pain in each of the past two seasons, including for about half of 2018 with a low and high sprain of his right ankle. He still caught 76 passes for 1,270 yards and six TDs, when he didn’t practice much if at all late in the year. He’s tough and knows what it means to be there for his team.

So there you have it, fantasy owners. Hope it pays off for you on draft day.

It won’t for me now. One of my guys will purposely pick T.Y. Hilton early just to spite me. All’s fair in love and roto.

(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)

(SI.com/Fantasy is an all-new site powered by many of the top-ranked players in the world. Get your fantasy sleepers, breakouts, and busts for the 2020 fantasy season.)