The Colts and Marvin Harrison Jr.: Is The Price Too Steep?
The Indianapolis Colts are set to pick 15th in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. Despite selecting in the middle of the first round, many Colts fans still have their eyes set on one of the top overall players in the upcoming class.
Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is widely considered the top overall receiver in the 2024 draft class, with some touting him as the best receiver prospect since Julio Jones. Harrison's relation to a Colts legend, his father Marvin Harrison, has also contributed to the fans' love of this prospect.
While we can all dream about what Harrison Jr. would look like in a Shane Steichen offense led by franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson, is this dream a realistic one to have? And even if it were realistic, is it the best allocation of resources to trade the farm for a receiver in today's NFL landscape?
Today, we are going to tackle these topics in detail and talk about the pros and cons of selling the house for this talented receiver prospect.
The Argument for Harrison
Harrison is a special prospect. The Ohio State product has been one of the more proficient players in college football the past few seasons, racking up 2,613 yards and 31 touchdowns in his collegiate career. He won the Fred Biletnikoff Award this past season, which is an honor given out to the nation's top overall receiver in a given year.
So production-wise, Harrison checks off every single box. The other box that this talented player checks off is athleticism. Harrison ranked second in Bruce Feldman's Freaks List in 2023 with some impressive measurables according to the article:
At 6-4, 208, the son of a Pro Football Hall of Fame receiver is remarkably gifted. He has everything. He’s very strong — he bench presses 380 pounds and did 20 reps of 225 on the bench and squatted 500. He’s very explosive, having broad-jumped 10 feet 8, and he’s really sudden, having clocked a 3.94 in the shuttle and improved on his max velocity from last year, up to 23.5 MPH. Asked for what training result he’s most proud of, he says it’s his 5-10-5, given his height and weight, yet still can run a sub-4-second time.
He tells The Athletic he’ll run in the high 4.3s at the NFL Scouting Combine next spring.
The film may be even better for this athletic phenom. Harrison plays with a smoothness that is rarely seen from a player of his size and stature. He is effortless in how he maneuvers in his breaks, and he possesses easy speed and coordination down the field. He truly reminds me of watching prime A.J. Green, which is a massive compliment for anybody too young to remember how great Green was as a player.
To further add fuel to the fire, some Colts players appear to be all in on the team moving up for Harrison in this upcoming draft. Linebacker Zaire Franklin recently posted a clip from his podcast "The Trenches" where he discussed the possibility of moving up for the young receiver:
"If Marvin Harrison falls out of the top five, everything in Indiana that is not nailed down will be sent directly to whoever got the ******* pick to bring his *** to the Colts."
So, to recap, Harrison is a rare specimen at the receiver position who has great college production, ties to the Colts organization, and seemingly has the support from Colts' players to be brought to the team. Seems like a slam-dunk decision to move up for this (potential) star player, right?
The Case Against Moving Up For Harrison
I'd like to preface this section by saying that if the Colts were in a closer range to move up for Harrison or already picking within the top five, this section wouldn't exist. This argument is purely against the amount of capital it would take to move up for Harrison, not against the player himself.
Harrison is a phenomenal talent, but is he worth the price that it would take from the Colts to move up and get him? He is likely to be a top-five selection in this upcoming class (barring anything unforeseen) and it's not like the Colts' are picking at seven or eight. There is a steep price to move up into the top five regardless of the position of the target.
The Houston Texans moved up to the third overall pick from pick 12 in the 2023 NFL Draft to draft pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. To climb up those nine spots, the Texans had to send the 12th and 33rd overall picks in the draft along with first and third-round picks in the 2024 draft. The Colts would likely be looking at a similar haul, if not more, to move into the top five from pick 15 to acquire Harrison.
That is an awful lot to give up for a player who hasn't even played an NFL snap yet, but I will relent that some would make that move in a heartbeat. We are talking about the (potential) next A.J. Green, so the move could be worth it in the long run. The real question is if that vast amount of resources is a wise investment in today's wide receiver landscape.
The NFL has seen a recent boom in receiver play over the past 5-10 years. Receivers are seeing unreal levels of production from the second they step foot on the NFL field, and as a result, rookies are seeing insanely productive seasons overall. Since 2020 alone, there have been 21 receivers to surpass 700 yards receiving in their rookie campaigns (nine of which were by players selected after round one).
The fascinating aspect of this recent boom is how teams have been able to find receivers after the first round. Rookie Puka Nacua took the league by storm with his record-breaking 1,486 yards receiving this season. Former fourth-round selection Amon-Ra St. Brown just achieved First-Team All-Pro status in his third NFL season. Even former second-round pick Nico Collins emerged as a superstar in his third year of action in 2023.
The NFL had 27 receivers eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in 2023. Of those players, 12 of them have been selected since the 2020 draft. Over 50% of the receivers that cracked the 1,000-yard mark in 2023 were also selected past the first round in their respective classes.
This argument isn't a case against drafting a receiver high in the draft, but it is one against allocating an overabundance of resources toward one. This isn't like the year 2000 when you needed a top-10 pick to find a star receiver; teams are churning out top receiver play each season from players of all different backgrounds.
Harrsion absolutely moves the needle and is well-deserving of his placement in the top five of draft big boards, but it is not worth mortgaging multiple high-value picks for a receiver in the league's current landscape. A better usage of resources would be selecting a player like Rome Odunze at 15 and utilizing those other prime selections rather than trading everything for Harrison in today's current landscape.
The Bottom Line
Marvin Harrison Jr. is a fantastic player and the storyline of his bloodlines returning to Indianapolis would be incredible to see. I just don't see the value in trading away valuable draft selections for a receiver prospect in the current NFL landscape.
The Colts absolutely should continue to add to their receiver room, but not at the expense of building the rest of the roster. I wouldn't shed a tear if the Colts did send the house for Harrison in this upcoming draft (because he is a special talent), but I'd rather see those resources spent on bettering the rest of the team in this current receiver market.
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