The Colts' Offense is NOT Broken
The Indianapolis Colts' are off to yet another pitiful start, falling to 1-2-1 through four games in the 2022 season. While there is plenty of blame to go around with this team, it appears that the offense is the main culprit in the team's record.
My good friend Nathan (AKA @Curious_Colt on Twitter) posted this lovely tweet the other day about the Colts:
The Colts' offense has been so astonishingly bad to start this season that their negative play is drastically weighing down DVOA's 13th ranked defense. Honestly, I can't even argue with this at all. The Colts have scored just 14.25 points per game through four weeks, easily the fewest in the NFL. They have failed to score over 20 in a single game this season.
With all of this being said, I am here to bring some good news; this offense is NOT broken. It is a disaster, but it is far from being damaged beyond repair. My goal is to at least prove to you that this offense can turn it around in the remaining 13 games this season.
They Are Moving the Ball!
Historically speaking, the worst offenses in the league are the ones that struggle to throw the ball with any consistency and ones that simply fail at moving the ball from point A to point B. The Colts, weirdly, aren't necessarily struggling in either department.
The Colts currently have the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL with 1,125. Even if you subtract yardage lost due to sacks, the Colts are still inside of the top ten in passing yards. The team is also moving the ball efficiently through the air, as quarterback Matt Ryan is averaging a healthy 7.3 yards per attempt (9.6 yards per attempt against the Titans in week four).
The big plays have also been there for the Colts, as they are tied for 11th in the league in big plays (rushes over 10 yards and completions over 20 yards). In fact, the team is actually third in passing plays over 20 yards this season with 16:
Even the advanced stats favor the Colts in terms of moving the ball. Series success rate is an advanced stat that looks at the rate in which a series starting with first down earns a new first down (or touchdown) on that series.
The Colts' offense is rating remarkably high in this metric, having a series success rate of over 70% on the year. To throw even more stats that are usually indicative of offensive success at you, the Colts' offense actually ranks 13th in the NFL in third down conversion rate at 39.62%.
So, in summary of all this statistical mumbo jumbo, the Colts have been consistently moving the ball this season and are at least league average in several favorable predictable statistics for offensive success. The only problem is that they can't seem to turn that into points.
Why is that? Well, let's jump to the next part of this piece..
Turnovers and Pressure
The Indianapolis Colts offense is being weighed down severely by their pass protection and by turnovers. Those two factors alone are stalling a should-be above average offense from finding success. The infuriating part of this is that it is hard to pin down these issues on just one person or player.
Veteran QB Matt Ryan, the man believed to bring stability and consistency to the offense, has fumbled a league-high nine times (losing three). He has also thrown five interceptions in the first four games. Superstar running back Jonathan Taylor lost a fumble this past week in the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans.
The highest paid offensive line in the league has allowed the second-most QB hits through four weeks with 33. All-Pro/Pro Bowl players in Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith are simply not playing up to their talent level to start the year.
The result has been a ton of empty drives. By my count, the Colts have had 21 drives this season where they started with the ball in their own territory and eventually crossed the 50 into opponent territory. Somehow, that has only translated into 14.25 points per game.
This past weekend is a great example. Trailing by seven points in the fourth quarter, the Colts had three straight drives where they crossed the 50 into Titans' territory. The results of those drives were:
- Punt from Titans' 39 yard line
- Fumble lost on Titans' 24 yard line
- Missed field goal from Titans' 33 yard line
This offense simply can't get out of its own way. In the redzone this season, the Colts are only converting 46.15% of their trips into touchdowns. That ranks 26th in the NFL at the moment. The Colts' offense has been moving the ball well all season long, but they can't get out of their way in high leverage situations.
The Bottom Line
This Colts' offense is in a bad spot, but it's not completely broken. The Colts have been efficient at moving the ball, they have just been shooting themselves in the foot (repeatedly) every time they get into scoring range.
The optimism with this is that, statistically speaking, the Colts should see some positive regression as the year goes on. Matt Ryan is currently on pace to shatter the single-season record for fumbles in a year. While that could continue to maintain, I see this as one area likely to even out as the year goes on. The same could likely be said for redzone inefficiency and other metrics.
I am in no way trying to minimize the negative impact of this Colts' offense through four weeks, though. It has been bad. Like, really bad. However, all hope is not lost. If this team can just learn to get out of its own way in scoring situations, this can be a good offense.
That is certainly a big IF after what we have seen so far, but there is at least some hope for the future of this current roster.
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Follow Zach on Twitter @ZachHicks2.
