What Kind of Dollars Will Colts’ T.Y. Hilton Command on Final Contract?
INDIANAPOLIS — Now that Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has stated a general expectation of two to four more years for what he says will be his final NFL contract after 2020, what kind of dollars make the most sense?
The first caveat is “if Hilton is healthy and productive” in 2020. He missed six games and had career-low numbers last season. He also missed two games in 2018. So if he gets hurt again, the dollars dramatically decrease. For the sake of argument, let’s presume he’s healthy and performs in four-time Pro Bowl form.
That’s what Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni expects, although coaches almost always look at these situations optimistically.
“T.Y., I expect a great bounce back from a year that he had a lot of injuries with,” Sirianni said on Monday. “I expect the 2018 version of him. Again, stay healthy through the year – if T.Y. stays healthy through the year, there is no doubt in my mind that that’s what we’ll see because he’s highly competitive, highly intelligent and he’s going to take advantage of his opportunities.
“He’s definitely still the main piece of this offense. T.Y. Hilton is who this pass offense runs through. I think about where we’re at – things will be schemed to get him the football. I know he’s worked hard on his body and worked hard through the offseason. He’s our guy. He’s our lead dog. He’s our alpha dog. If he stays healthy the sky is the limit again for him.”
Hilton said in a Wednesday Zoom conference call that he’s healthy and working out two times a day.
Now onto the possible numbers.
Looking at NFL wide receivers 30 and older, the highest-paid pass catcher is Atlanta’s Julio Jones, who turned 31 in February. Hilton isn’t the caliber of Jones, but he turns 31 in November.
Jones counts $20.4 million against the cap this year. He signed a three-year, $66-million extension last September. That’s how high the bar has been set, and Hilton won’t command that much. He’s making $14.542 million in the final year of a five-year, $65-million extension.
Based on Jones’ deal, three years makes sense. Regardless of whether the Colts go three or four, expect the contract to be front-loaded, which allows the Colts to get out of it after two years if Hilton falls off.
Just two other NFL wide receivers in the top-10 in salary are 30 or older. Cincinnati’s A.J. Green is 32 and entering the final year of a deal that pays him $18.1 million. Minnesota’s Adam Thielen is 30, and he counts $12.768 million, but a four-year, $64.8-million extension signed last year bumps that average value from 2021 on to roughly $16 million.
The best educated guess is that Hilton is closer to Thielen. Splitting the difference, maybe $16 or $17 million a season for three or four years. Again, that’s providing Hilton is healthy and playing at Pro Bowl form.
Here are key factors to keep in mind, starting with rehashing that recent injury history, both pro and con.
— In 2019, Hilton missed a career-high six games with a calf injury and his lowest numbers in eight seasons included a long reception of 35 yards and 11.1 yards per catch. His previous seasonal lows were a long reception of 63 yards and a 13.2-yard-average per catch.
— He’s averaged 15.9 yards per catch or better in his other six seasons, but that was with quarterback Andrew Luck throwing him the ball as opposed to vertically challenged Jacoby Brissett last season. Philip Rivers likes to throw deep balls, so that’s to Hilton’s benefit. Just two receivers — Julio Jones and Antonio Brown — have had more 100-yard receiving games than Hilton’s 33 since 2012.
— Hilton also played hurt, used primarily as a decoy late in the season. And he played hurt for half of the 2018 season — in which he caught 76 passes for 1,270 yards and six TDs — despite both a low and high sprain of the right ankle. So the Colts have some added appreciation for a team leader who didn’t quit.
— Since Hilton arrived in the third round of 2012 as the 13th wide receiver drafted, the Colts are 1-9 when he’s out of the lineup. That’s leverage.
— But working against him is the fact that several other key Colts are entering contract years. Expect the Colts to roll over most of their $25.1 million in cap space. The list includes center Ryan Kelly, who should be a top priority because he anchors one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, sack-leading defensive end Justin Houston, leading rusher Marlon Mack, and team-leading tackler Anthony Walker at middle linebacker. It also should be noted that quarterback Philip Rivers and cornerback Xavier Rhodes signed one-year deals, and if they play well, the Colts would want to re-sign them.
(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)
