Colts 2021 Fantasy Preview: QB Carson Wentz
Quarterback changes are simultaneously one of the most exciting and tiresome things that can happen to an NFL franchise, especially the latter when they come with regularity.
That's been the case for the Indianapolis Colts for the last few years.
Their next attempt at a long-term solution is Carson Wentz, who they acquired through trade this offseason after he bottomed out with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2020.
While there are plenty of ways to look at how Wentz will perform with the Colts, we are focusing on his fantasy football prospects today.
Average draft position and positional rankings from FantasyPros. Analysis based on traditional lineups with PPR scoring.
Relevant to all Colts fantasy players, quarterback Carson Wentz underwent a procedure on his foot on Mon., Aug. 2 and is expected to be out anywhere from 5-12 weeks, which puts his return in the regular season roughly between Week 1-Week 8. Although the team will have a better idea of his approximate timetable for return a few weeks post-op, they believe his return will be on the quicker side of the range.
QB Carson Wentz
- Current ADP — 131.0
- Current Positional Rank — QB19
- 2021 Strength of Schedule — 7th easiest
- 2018 — 11 games, 279-of-401 passing (69.6%), 3,074 yards (7.7 YPA), 21 total TD, 13 total TO
- 2019 — 16 games, 388-of-607 passing (63.9%), 4,039 yards (6.7 YPA), 28 total TD, 14 total TO
- 2020 — 12 games, 251-of-437 passing (57.4%), 2,620 yards (6.0 YPA), 21 total TD, 19 total TO
- Average per game — 23.5-of-36.9 passing (63.6%), 250.1 yards (6.8 YPA), 1.8 total TD, 1.2 total TO
Rebounding from 2020
I won't pretend like it's some slam dunk that Wentz is going to be a fantasy star in 2021, although I think he's likely to be above-average.
We have to cross the 2020 bridge first.
Out of the 12 games he played, he had a completion percentage under 60.0% in eight games, a YPA under 6.0 in seven games, and an even or negative TD:INT ratio in nine. That's bad.
A huge red flag is that Wentz has shown a knack for turning the ball over in more ways than one. While I think his 15 interceptions last year were an anomaly (he only threw 21 total in the prior three years combined), he's lost about as many fumbles in each of the last three seasons (17 total) as some guys have interceptions over the course of a year.
While his protection is probably going to be better in Indianapolis than it was recently in Philadelphia, sacks are going to happen, and Wentz is going to have to protect the ball when they do.
Still, there is a realistic expectation that Frank Reich, Wentz, and the offensive coaching staff can work together to put Wentz back on the right track. In Reich's three years in Indy, his QB1's average numbers are as follows:
357.0-of-543.0 passing (65.7%), 3,901.3 yards (7.2 YPA), 28.3 total TD, 13.0 total TO
All had completed at least 60% of their passes, all had YPA above 6.5, all had at least 20 total touchdowns, and two of the three reached 4,000 passing yards.
Reunited with Frank Reich
Wentz spent his first two years in the NFL (2016-17) with the Eagles and Reich as his offensive coordinator, who is now his head coach with the Colts. The quarterback played some of the best football of his career and was the MVP frontrunner in 2017 with Reich before a knee injury ended his season.
Reich has a knack for doing that: getting the best out of a quarterback. With the Eagles, it was that magical '17 Super Bowl run with Wentz and then Nick Foles in the postseason. With the Colts, look at Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers' redemption seasons in 2018 and 2020, respectively, as well as some of the quality football that Jacoby Brissett occasionally played.
The common thought around the NFL is that if Wentz is going to resurrect his career from the disaster that was 2020, it's with Reich and the Colts.
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Spreading the Ball to Deep Cast of Characters
There's no pressure for Wentz to force-feed the ball to a guy like Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, or Michael Thomas. The Colts don't have that guy (yet).
That makes things easier on a quarterback, as he can simply focus on finding the open man. Since Reich arrived in Indianapolis in 2018, that approach has resulted in four different players catching at least 40 passes in each season, and at least five players being targeted at least 40 times.
The Colts utilize all three skill groups — wide receiver, tight ends, and running backs — heavily in the passing game, so there should be ample options for Wentz to distribute the ball to the open receiver. That approach may not give an individual pass-catcher ballooned numbers, but it helps the quarterback's productivity.
While I mentioned the Colts don't have that one superstar receiver, they have several different guys that can contribute. T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Nyheim Hines, and Jack Doyle have all led the team in either receptions or receiving yards over the course of a season. Not to mention, Michael Pittman Jr. is expected to take the next step in becoming the Colts' true WR1. Jonathan Taylor, Parris Campbell, and Mo Alie-Cox are also definite big-play contributors in the passing game.
Contextualizing Fantasy vs. Success
Were Wentz and the Eagles bad in 2020? You betcha. Should that affect how you see him from a fantasy lens? No, not really. Plenty of players who aren't playing particularly well have been able to produce adequate statistics, aiding their fantasy value.
Wentz hasn't been the most consistent quarterback on the planet, but he's finished top-15 or better at the position every year except for his rookie year, which includes two top-10 finishes. Injuries have shortened three of his five seasons, so I've prorated his production to a 16-game schedule in his incomplete seasons.
Whether Wentz leads the Colts to a successful season or not, the majority of both his and Reich's history, as well as the quality of the players around him shows that he's likely to be a productive fantasy quarterback in 2021.
Are you planning on targeting Wentz in your fantasy drafts? Drop your thoughts below in the comment section!
See Below for More in This Series:
- RB Jonathan Taylor
- RB Nyheim Hines
- WR T.Y. Hilton
- WR Michael Pittman Jr.
- WR Parris Campbell
- TE Jack Doyle
- TE Mo Alie-Cox
