Indianapolis Colts' Draft Strategy Must Include Having an Eye on After 2020

INDIANAPOLIS — An NFL general manager’s most oft-uttered phrase leading up to next week’s NFL draft is “best player available.”

But realistically speaking there are other factors, such as addressing obvious needs. In the case of the Indianapolis Colts, consider something else when analyzing what general manager Chris Ballard might do — players entering a contract year.

The Colts have several key players entering the final year of their contracts, which means Ballard must have an eye on 2021 and beyond and not just be focused on 2020. GMs try to draft a year or two out when addressing certain positions, and missing on a player in the first three rounds usually sets a franchise back.

Key Colts entering a contract year are wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, center Ryan Kelly, running back Marlon Mack, defensive end Justin Houston, defensive tackle Denico Autry and wide receiver Zach Pascal. The team can also pick up the 2021 option on safety Malik Hooker, who would otherwise become a restricted free agent.

While active in free agency, it’s worth remembering that Ballard gave one-year contracts to quarterback Philip Rivers, cornerback Xavier Rhodes and cornerback T.J. Carrie. Backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett is also at the end of his deal. That’s why so many mock drafts have the Colts drafting a quarterback, the most important position. If the 38-year-old Rivers or Brissett don’t play well enough, the Colts would be entering 2021 without a quarterback unless they draft one now.

The catch here is that the Colts traded their first-round draft choice, 13th overall, to acquire defensive tackle DeForest Buckner from San Francisco. So barring a trade up, Ballard won’t be on the clock until the second round, where the Colts have selections at 34 and 44.

Look at the other positions that could be thin. Wide receiver quickly comes to mind. Although hurt the last two years, Hilton is a four-time Pro Bowl playmaker who will command big money. Pascal signed a one-year restricted tender. The only wide receiver locked up long term is second-year pro Parris Campbell. So it also makes sense for the Colts to be thinking wide receiver.

That said, the reason many mocks are mentioning a cornerback with one of those second-round picks is because Rhodes is looking to regain his 2017 All-Pro form on a prove-it deal and Carrie was added for depth as an experienced veteran. If both don’t show something, the Colts just have second-year cornerback Rock Ya-Sin to go with nickel cornerback Kenny Moore II.

Just giving the standard “best player available” selection strategy doesn’t sound so realistic given these Colts needs. Ballard, who is participating in a pre-draft video conference call with the media on Friday, can’t ignore these three top positions of need: quarterback, wide receiver and cornerback.

If looking beyond those spots, the Colts could use a tight end or safety. They lack depth in both. But Ballard might decide he can’t use an early pick on either because of more pressing concerns.