NFL Picks: Week 4

The only positive in a lousy picks week is when it finally ends. And last week couldn’t end soon enough for NFL predictions.

Maybe it’s a classic case of overthinking NFL picks after going 14-2 the previous week and, as a result, anticipating too many unexpected outcomes.

Or perhaps it was just bad luck, like when the Minnesota Vikings blow a fourth-quarter lead at home and lose to the Tennessee Titans on a 55-yard field goal.

Or maybe it was just stupid, like picking against Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes because something inside suggested the Baltimore Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson playing at home could be the defending Super Bowl champions’ equal. Uh, no.

And picking against Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers ranks right up there on the “smack the side of the head” list. Yeah, Drew Brees at home in “The Big Easy” sounds smart enough, but that Packers offense is on fire.

So put it together and it’s a sobering, humbling, downright embarrassing 8-7-1 week. Thanks for the tie, Eagles-Bengals, which means a season of having to add .5 to the calculator division.

At least the Indianapolis Colts performed as expected in taking out the winless New York Jets 36-7. The Colts have won back-to-back home games against winless teams, so read as much or as little as you want into that.

Now the guys wearing the horseshoe helmets venture to the “Windy City” to take on the unbeaten Chicago Bears, who twice had to rally from double-digit deficits in the final quarter. These Bears aren’t as good as the record. Not by a long shot. But quarterback Nick Foles will fling it deep and test the Colts secondary, which means anything can happen.

The Colts are 2.5-point road favorites, which means it’s a toss-up. And while Foles chucking bombs makes me nervous, we’re going to stick with a defense that has been making life miserable for mediocre quarterbacks. Foles is not elite, regardless of whether he’s wearing a Superman cape at the moment. The Colts defense won’t allow him much time. Go with the Colts.

Good luck, pickers!

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PhilB’s Picks

Broncos at Jets — Jets

Colts at Bears — Colts

Jaguars at Bengals — Bengals

Browns at Cowboys — Cowboys

Saints at Lions — Saints

Steelers at Titans — postponed

Seahawks at Dolphins — Seahawks

Chargers at Buccaneers — Buccaneers

MORE: Check out Horseshoe Nation’s premium page

Ravens at Washington — Ravens

Cardinals at Panthers — Cardinals

Vikings at Texans — Texans

Giants at Rams — Rams

Patriots at Chiefs — Chiefs

Bills at Raiders — Raiders

Eagles at 49ers — 49ers

Falcons at Packers — Packers

Week 3 — 8-7-1 (.531)

Overall — 32-15-1 (.677)

(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)