NFL Picks: Week 5

Just like the Indianapolis Colts' 3-1 record, that’s my mark when picking them.

Now if the rest of the NFL picks could be at 75 percent.

Another unacceptable week of 9-6 brought the percentage down in picking games straight up. It would have been 10-5 if not for changing from Denver to the N.Y. Jets at the last minute. Stupid alert. Go with the first instinct and don’t change unless it’s due to a key injury.

That’s two stinking weeks in a row, although 8-7-1 the previous week means last week was actually an improvement. OK, so perhaps that’s not exactly encouraging. It might be time to invoke reverse psychology: anyone relying on these picks should see what they are, then do the opposite.

For the first time this season, the pick is against the Colts, which means they will probably go to Cleveland and beat the Browns (3-1), who are off to their best start since 2001.

Truth be told, the fact that the Browns give up a ton of points made this pick 50-50. Colts fans who are disappointed in not seeing a homer pick should know the tipping point was a Colts defense that could be without linebacker Darius Leonard. The team leader missed the second half of Sunday’s 19-11 win at Chicago with a groin injury. Those can linger. And if the Colts decide to play it safe, considering how important “The Maniac” is, and have him sit this one out, that would make sense.

Linebacker Bobby Okereke underwent Monday thumb surgery. If he plays, it will be with that hand wrapped up, which means he’s not going to be 100 percent. If Leonard plays, he’s not going to be 100 percent, either.

If Leonard were healthy, the Colts would be the pick because a No. 1-ranked defense firing on all cylinders should be able to slow down the Browns. Not stop them in the "Dawg Pound," but at least get enough stops. That’s a pretty strong offense with the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack. Even without running back Nick Chubb, running back Kareem Hunt is capable of filling the void. And that vastly improved Browns offensive line is playing extremely well.

If Colts quarterback Philip Rivers has his offense moving, perhaps the last team with a chance to score pulls this one out. Beware of Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, who leads the NFL with five sacks and has had strip-sacks in each of the past three games.

Good luck, pickers!

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PhilB’s Picks

Buccaneers at Bears — Buccaneers

Panthers at Falcons — Falcons

Bills at Titans — Bills

Raiders at Chiefs — Chiefs

Cardinals at Jets — Cardinals

Eagles at Steelers — Steelers

Rams at Washington — Rams

Bengals at Ravens — Ravens

Jaguars at Texans — Texans

Dolphins at 49ers — 49ers

Colts at Browns — Browns

Giants at Cowboys — Cowboys

Broncos at Patriots — Patriots

Vikings at Seahawks — Seahawks

Chargers at Saints — Saints

Week 4 — 9-6 (.600)

Overall — 41-21-1 (.659)

(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)