Why the Colts Should Extend Michael Pittman Jr. Now
The Indianapolis Colts are at the tail end of a crucial offseason. Training camp has just begun, and with the Jonathan Taylor circus going on, not enough people are talking about the real elephant in the room: Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman is one of the most unique case studies that I’ve done when it comes to figuring out what his actual value is as a player. Most people say he’s not a true number-one receiver and that he’s a high-value number-two, but I think the conversation is a bit more nuanced than that.
Since coming to Indy, Pittman's numbers are not mind-blowing, but they are very consistent. In 46 total games, he has amassed 227 receptions for 2,510 yards and 11 touchdowns over his first three seasons. He’s also averaged a shade over 11 yards per catch in that time. Again, not mind-blowing numbers for a guy you consider your number-one receiver in your offense.
What we can’t do when evaluating Pittman is ignore the fact that he has only played three seasons and has caught passes from five different quarterbacks in that period. Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles are all different quarterbacks that have completed a pass to Pittman.
Through it all, Pittman has managed to stay fairly consistent. He grabbed 99 balls last season despite missing a game, and due to the quarterbacks’ inability to push the ball downfield, he was only able to have 925 yards on those receptions. The offensive struggles were so bad last season he was relegated to a safety net as a receiver and wasn’t nearly the same downfield threat that he was just a season before with Wentz.
Pittman's yards per catch was three yards higher than it was last season (9.3 to 12.3). Enter a bigger, stronger, faster Wentz with less volatility in Anthony Richardson and a head coach in Shane Steichen that believes in verticality in an offense, and you have a recipe for a breakout season.
That brings me to the Colts' side of this. You absolutely can’t wait for that season to happen to offer Pittman a contract if you want to maximize your money with him. The wide receiver market is currently booming, and players in his tier are making close to $20 million per year. Players who were even a tier lower than him, like Christian Kirk, made $18 million. Diontae Johnson cashed in an extension around a similar number as well.
Mike Williams, D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and Chris Godwin are all guys that make $20 million per year currently, and I think that is the sweet spot for the Colts and Pittman for an extension. If he makes the jump that I think he can in this offense with a better quarterback, then we can possibly be looking at a 90-reception, 1,200-yard season.
If Pittman does that, he will easily command over $20 million on the open market. There’s an argument to be made that if he had the consistent QB play that someone like Tee Higgins has had that Pittman would be just as valuable as a guy that will easily make 20-plus on his next extension.
Of course, this move is a bit of a gamble for the Colts, considering you would be betting on Pittman to take a step, and you haven’t seen him in the new offense yet. I think it’s a gamble worth making when you have a new franchise quarterback in place and are already at odds with your best offensive weapon overall in Jonathan Taylor. I think an extension for Pittman would send a message to a locker room that sorely needs it right now with everything that’s going on.
Pittman has suffered through terrible times and has done nothing but put his head down and work. Even now, he is handling this contract situation with pure class. That alone has some value to it. If the Colts find a way to lock up a budding star for his value right now while he continues to ascend, it will open up new opportunities for them with the money that’s saved, and right now, that is something this roster can use.
August is the time of year the Colts get these types of extensions done, and I expect this to be no different. Pay up now, or Colts and Pittman will really make you pay later.
