Film Room: Should Sam Ehlinger Really Be in the Conversation for Starter?

The Indianapolis Colts selected quarterback Sam Ehlinger in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Ehlinger was a four-year starter at the University of Texas, where he seemingly improved each and every year.

Coming into Training Camp, Ehlinger appeared locked into the QB3 spot on the depth chart, a role that is far from a roster lock. With the unexpected injury to Carson Wentz, Ehlinger has been given more chances with the second-team offense in camp.

His play has drawn praise from those in attendance. With Wentz out and Jacob Eason being very up-and-down, Ehlinger has appeared to be the best quarterback so far for the Colts. His play even prompted this article from The Athletic's Stephen Holder:

This is not a prediction and it’s not a hot take. Just accept this as the observations of someone who has covered the NFL for a long time (me).

Is this real? Can it last? No idea. I just know Sam Ehlinger has my attention and I want to see more. https://t.co/0ISwZWmslO
— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) August 4, 2021

With all the buzz coming out of Training Camp, I decided to jump back into Ehlinger's film. In today's film room, I dive into his best trait, his worst trait, and analyze his mechanics as a passer.

Best Trait: POISE

After studying roughly eight of Ehlinger's games from last year, I can definitely see why he is having so much success in the preseason. There are plenty of things to like in his game, but the absolute best aspect is how poised and controlled he is when under-duress.

He is basically a perfect teach-tape for how to operate outside of the pocket. He keeps the ball high and tight with two hands on the ball at all times (to avoid fumbling). His eyes are always up scanning the field, even with rushers closing in.

His movement in the pocket is also impressive. He knows when to vacate the pocket and scramble, but he also has an excellent understanding of when to climb and reset. He is fearless in how he delivers big throws while taking hits.

Overall, this trait does standout in this particular quarterback battle. Jacob Eason is a talented, big armed player, but he had major struggles in college with surviving under pressure. Ehlinger thrives in chaos and does everything the way a coach would want in these situations.

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My favorite trait with Sam Ehlinger is how poised he is. Keeps his mechanics under duress, good pocket movement, and keeps his eyes up when moving. pic.twitter.com/btyV236pwp
— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) August 5, 2021

Worst Trait: Arm Strength

This could be the issue that sinks Ehlinger's NFL career in my opinion. Quarterbacks with weaker arms can survive in the college game. That is not the case in the NFL, though.

Throwing windows are so much tighter in the NFL and defenders drive on any pass that doesn't have proper velocity on it. The only way to combat this is to be an elite quarterback in terms of anticipation and timing-- much like with Drew Brees for most of his career and Philip Rivers for all of 2020.

Ehlinger's arm is really concerning to me because it is obvious how much he has to drive passes outside the numbers and down the field. This is why he lacks accuracy in those areas, as he loses some sequencing in his throwing motion to try and overcompensate for his arm.

When he can throw with touch to these areas, he's perfectly fine. Driving passes into tight windows is where the struggles show up. He was smart to avoid tight windows as much as possible in college, but almost every throw in the NFL is a tight-window throw.

I think there is a path where he can find success with this deficiency, but it is a major concern that the Colts have to work around.

My major concern with Ehlinger is just his arm strength. I think it is really weak on film. He has to push the ball anytime he throws outside the numbers and the deep ball floats badly.

Can survive in the college game but those split seconds matter so much more in the NFL pic.twitter.com/bUydKDMKa0
— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) August 5, 2021

Mechanical Analysis

As you all know, I have dug into the world of quarterback mechanics this offseason. After speaking with some of the top experts in the field for articles on Wentz, I feel at least somewhat confident identifying and discussing mechanics on my own.

Ehlinger was a major surprise on film review. Most college quarterbacks have poor mechanics and rely too much on their arm and athleticism to carry the load. That certainly wasn't the case with Ehlinger.

I saw a player who has clearly worked hard on his craft to limit many mechanical issues that plague young quarterbacks. The two biggest issues in most quarterbacks--sequencing and setting the hallway-- are not concerns in Ehlinger's game.

He does a great job of aligning his body with his target and keeping his front half closed as he starts his sequence. He generates power through his hips and drives well on his throws. Just from the surface level, Ehlinger's mechanics don't concern me in the least bit.

Final part of this mini-thread but another example of Ehlinger with good mechanics on a deep ball. The problem? The ball still dies in the air.

I'm not sure how he can improve his arm strength mechanically because he is very solid here. pic.twitter.com/v5pECQYKhA
— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) August 5, 2021

I like where he is at mechanically as he enters the NFL. What this means to me, though, is that his arm strength limitations do derive from having a weaker arm, rather than it being a result of him losing velocity due to poor mechanics.

Final Thoughts

I like so many things about Sam Ehlinger's game. He is a poised, accurate quarterback who can make things happen with his feet. He is also a phenomenal person who helped raise $200,000 in a Covid-19 relief fund while at Texas.

The arm strength is just something that gives me so much pause. At the moment, he doesn't have the mental game to overcome that in the NFL. If he were to play in a regular season game, he would limit the offense with how he can't drive passes with velocity down the field or outside the numbers.

There is a path for him to survive with this deficiency, but it would make him a major outlier if he does. I am a big fan of Ehlinger and hope he can become a great quarterback, but I don't think he should be competing with Jacob Eason for the temporary starting job.

Follow Zach on Twitter @ZachHicks2.

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