Why Oddsmakers Consider Colts’ 2020 Schedule NFL’s Easiest

INDIANAPOLIS — If you’re an NFL fan who quickly dismisses the common strength of schedule ranking based on opponent win percentage from the previous year, perhaps a more realistic consideration should be how oddsmakers calculate SOS.

Think about how the common ranking is often cited in media reports. There’s usually some sort of caveat about how the numbers might not mean much because teams change from one year to the next.

Exactly. That’s why oddsmakers base their SOS rankings on over/under betting lines for opponents to more accurately assess strength or weakness as a result of roster changes for 2020.

The Indianapolis Colts have made a lot of offseason moves since finishing 7-9 last season, including the trade for All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, signing free-agent quarterback Philip Rivers and drafting wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and running back Jonathan Taylor.

That’s why the Colts are listed as having the easiest NFL schedule by many oddsmakers, including Sports Illustrated Gambling Editor Jaime Eisner. If basing the Colts’ SOS on just 2019 opponent win percentage, the Colts would be tied with Tampa Bay for the 16th-hardest schedule at .502 percent (128-127-1).

“There’s always flaws when trying to predict the future,” Eisner said Tuesday, “but I think the biggest reason why I like to go with the betting line strength of schedule is it more accurately reflects what’s happening right now, reflects the offseason moves good and bad, reflects the draft.”

Eisner mentions how he has the Colts’ over/under win total at 8.5, and he’s confidently taking the over.

“If you’re playing the Colts on the schedule, to call them a seven-win team, it’s not giving the Colts enough credit,” Eisner said.

He cites the moves Colts GM Chris Ballard has made.

“If you’re playing the Colts, that should be a little bit more difficult,” Eisner said. “They should be getting credit for being more than a seven-win team that they were last year.”

Consider that any team with the New England Patriots on the schedule is boosting that overall win percentage with a 12-win opponent, although quarterback Tom Brady departed via free agency for Tampa Bay.

The oddsmakers at www.SportsBettingDime.com also list the Colts with the easiest schedule based on adding up all the projected over/under win totals of opponents. The Colts are at 122.3 with the Tennessee Titans next at 124.8. The hardest schedule in their listing belongs to the Atlanta Falcons at 136.

The folks at dknationdraftkings.com also have the Colts with the easiest schedule at 120.5. So does CBSSports.com, although the projected opponent over/under differs with a win-percentage-like total of 0.480.

The 8.5 over/under for the Colts’ season win total that Eisner likes to cite is also the same on CBSSports.com.

Eisner reiterated why he likes the Colts to exceed that number.

“I think they can push 10 wins this year,” he said. “They’re my pick to win the division (AFC South). The upgrade in offensive line for Philip Rivers, I don’t it’s been talked about enough. The Chargers had one of the four-worst graded offensive lines in football last year. The Colts were top-four, and there could be an argument made they’re the best offensive line in football. If you don’t think giving a veteran like Rivers more time to throw is going to be a huge asset to him, I think you’re crazy.

“You bring in Jonathan Taylor to go in that backfield with Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines catching passes. You have weapons all over the place. I think Michael Pittman Jr. is going to step up and play a pretty significant role right away because he can. T.Y. Hilton is back and healthy. There are a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. It’s a very, very solid team on all fronts. To me, they’re a favorite in the division.”

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

2020 REGULAR SCHEDULE

Sun., Sept. 13 — At Jacksonville, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Sun., Sept. 20 — Minnesota, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Sun., Sept. 27 — N.Y. Jets, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Sun., Oct. 4 — at Chicago, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Sun., Oct. 11 — at Cleveland, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Sun., Oct. 18 — Cincinnati, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Sun., Oct. 25 — Bye

Sun., Nov. 1 — at Detroit, 1 p.m., CBS

Sun., Nov. 8 — Baltimore, 1 p.m., CBS

Thurs., Nov. 12 — at Tennessee, 8:20 p.m. (FOX/NFLN/AMAZON)

Sun., Nov. 22 — Green Bay, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Sun., Nov. 29 — Tennessee, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Sun., Dec. 6 — at Houston, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Sun., Dec. 13 — at Las Vegas, 4:05 p.m., (CBS)

Sat. or Sun., Dec. 19 or 20 — Houston, TBD (TV TBD)

Sun., Dec. 27 — at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m., (CBS)

Sun., Jan. 3 — Jacksonville, 1 p.m. (CBS)

(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)