Draft Disaster: Why Cowboys Can't Pick a Linebacker in Round 1
The Dallas Cowboys' defense fell apart last season due to the struggles of its spine. Edge rusher Micah Parsons was phenomenal, as was a cornerback group that exceeded expectations – even after Trevon Diggs’ injury.
Meanwhile, Dallas found itself in murky waters when facing teams willing to line up and win between the tackles, putting interior linemen and off-ball linebackers in precarious situations. This was most evident during the Cowboys’ Wild Card loss to the Green Bay Packers, where they were bullied for the better part of four quarters.
That loss was always going to sting, and Dallas’ stagnation is worthy of strong reactions. However, the Cowboys mustn’t take an off-ball linebacker in Round 1 of the NFL Draft.
Nov 11, 2023; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack linebacker Payton Wilson (11) during the first half at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
It’s worth noting that this isn’t a risk Dallas seems overly eager to make. Their top mock draft targets, per NFL Mock Draft Database, are all offensive linemen, perhaps in preparation for veteran tackle Tyron Smith’s (potential) departure.
However, there are a handful of linebackers projected to go on the draft’s second day, and with the NFL Combine around the corner, a blazing 40-yard dash time could skyrocket some stocks.
It’s worth getting ahead of the idea, and promptly shutting it down.
For one, there isn’t a prospect in this linebacker class that profiles as a true Round 1 player. Each of the top prospects – NC State’s Payton Wilson, Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper, and Clemson’s Jeremiah Trotter Jr., to name a few – have a specific question mark clouding their projection and relegating their stock to the second or third round. Those exist alongside high-level traits and strong athleticism.
During the Combine, though, all eyes are on the clock, and if a linebacker runs a sub-4.50, they are all but guaranteed to see their name in first-round mock drafts more frequently. It’s a classic case of double counting. We already know they’re fast, that’s why they are being projected in the top 100, and sometimes the top 50. Giving extra credit for faring well at the combine is treacherous.
Furthermore, positional value is relevant, especially in the first round. The Cowboys, we think at this early stage, seem destined to choose between a receiver or an offensive lineman at No. 24. They shouldn’t select simply for need or positional value, but in this case, they intersect well. This class has no shortage of options up front or on the perimeter, both of which are more likely to have bigger impacts in the short- and long-term.
As a sidebar: In addition to Dallas "needing'' an off-ball linebacker, Dallas has a history of drafting good prospects high ... with injury concerns. It's an odd quirk, and with all due respect to Sean Lee, Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch? No. Don't do that again, either.
Back to this year and this time and place ... It also may be ambitious to be confident in the league’s scouting of linebackers. The league is in flux, shifting to smaller, faster linebackers in recent years – a process that makes unique talents that stop the run and pass well even more valuable.
In the past few drafts, though, first-round linebackers are far from a guarantee. The jury is still out on Detroit Lions linebacker Jack Campbell, but Seattle Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks may be the lone certified hit in five year’s worth of draft classes.
Of course, each evaluation is an individual event, and last year’s mistakes don’t seal the fate of this year’s prospects. But it is increasingly difficult to envision a draft where the Cowboys take a “rising” linebacker this early and have it be the best use of resources, especially with the opportunity cost that comes with missing out on a strong contributor at another position.
