Cowboys at Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, Score Prediction, 5 Burning Questions

The Dallas Cowboys take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game that will have playoff implications on the line. If the Cowboys win, they clinch their spot, likely taking on the winner of the NFC South. Yet there are other scenarios in which the Cowboys can clinch their spot even without a win.

With the Cowboys traveling to TIAA Bank Field, we spoke with John Shipley of the Jaguar Report to answer our five most burning questions about the Jaguars.

1) What has been the biggest difference for Trevor Lawrence in his second year compared to his first year in the league?

The biggest differences have been his decision-making and downfield accuracy. Lawrence put the ball in harm's way far too often as a rookie, making questionable decisions with passes into traffic and too frequently passing up checkdowns. He has gotten much better in this regard, throwing just six interceptions in 14 games, with one of those coming on a last-second Hail Mary. He still takes risks, but they are calculated risks.

Lawrence has also been much more accurate pushing the ball downfield, especially in recent weeks. He has excelled at vertical passing in recent weeks, whether on back-shoulder passes, in contested situations, or leading his receivers downfield. He was streaky in this area last year, but he has taken a 180 this year.

2) Just how impactful have the two additions at wide receiver this offseason, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, been for the offense?

They have automatically become Lawrence’s favorite targets, even accounting for veteran Marvin Jones Jr. being in his second year with Lawrence. Kirk has been terrific from the slot, frequently winning against zone coverage and providing Lawrence with an explosive threat who can get open at each level of the field. The few times teams have tried to match safeties and linebackers against Kirk; his separation ability has made them pay.

As for Zay Jones, he has been one of Lawrence’s go-to guys. He sees a high volume of targets and is one of Lawrence’s most targeted players on 3rd downs, with Jones often winning underneath or in the middle of the field. He isn’t a burner and has run into drop issues in recent weeks, but he has been solid for his role.

3) Who is the top Jaguar player to watch on each side of the ball?

On offense, it has to be Trevor Lawrence. Over the last five weeks, he is No. 7 in EPA/Play among all quarterbacks, No. 2 in CPOE, and No. 4 in Success Rate, putting him in company with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts.

In that span, Lawrence leads the NFL in completion percentage, is No. 7 in passing yards, No. 1 in interceptions and interception percentage, No. 6 in touchdown passes, No. 2 in passer rating, and No. 5 in adjusted net yards per pass attempt. In short, he is playing at an elite level right now.

On defense, it will be Tyson Campbell. The health of Travon Walker makes this an interesting question, but Campbell has been the Jaguars’ best defender all year. He had three pass breakups on three targets in coverage last week and has held his own against No. 1 wide receivers this year. He is a legit No. 1 cornerback.

4) What is the biggest strength and weakness of this Jaguars’ team?

The biggest strength is their intermediate passing game. The Jaguars’ offense is built out of, in basketball terms, mid-range jumpers. They don’t take many layups or long threes, but they will make the toughest 2-pointers you could imagine. They can move the ball with ease through the air when things are clicking, especially with Lawrence’s recent play.

As for a weakness, it is their pass coverage. The Jaguars’ pass rush has been streaky this year (Josh Allen and Travon Walker have combined for 7.5 sacks), and the No. 2 and No. 3 cornerback spots have been big issues. The Jaguars have been one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses since the takeaways dried up during the middle of the season.

5) Score Prediction?

This is going to be a shootout. I think it will be Cowboys 33, Jaguars 27.

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