McDaniel Needs to Get Bold Again

Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel was among the least aggressive coaches on fourth down in 2024, based on an analystic research project

Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel looks on during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in the 2024 season finale. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins' very first drive of the 2024 season ended with an incomplete pass when head coach Mike McDaniel decided to be aggressive and go for it on fourth-and-8 from the Jacksonville Jaguars 42-yard line.

The Dolphins did it again in the second quarter, this time going for it on fourth-and-3 from the Jacksonville 45 and again failing to get the first down.

As it turned out, this would not set the tone for an aggressive season for McDaniel when it comes to going for it on fourth down.

On the contrary, McDaniel ranked 25th in the NFL in an Aggressiveness Index compiled by FTN Fantasy using data of the past several seasons (starting in 2018) to compare how head coaches handled fourth-down situations compared to the average.

Based on this research, McDaniel went for the first down on 13 of 101 fourth-down situations where there was a decision to be made when the data since 2018 had coaches going for it an average of 14.7 times for an Aggressiveness Index score of 0.89.

This represented a significant drop for McDaniel, who ranked ninth among head coach in 2023 with an AI score of 1.18.

This probably shouldn't come as any surprise to NFL followers that Dan Campbell has been the king of aggressiveness among head coaches, finishing first in 2024 and second in 2023 behind only Jonathan Gannon of the Arizona Cardinals.

Additional reading:
-- What should the Dolphins do with Tyler Huntley?
-- Dolphins O-line issues not for lack of trying
-- Trying to explain the NFL's complicated compensatory pick formula
-- Dolphins high on pending UFA snaps, low on cap space

SECOND-GUESSING SOME FOURTH-DOWN DECISIONS

While we can't be sure, we would expect that not having Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback for six of the team's 17 games played a role in McDaniel's much more conservative ways in 2024. But also understand the Dolphins had a higher fourth-down success rate in 2024 (48.4 percent) than they did in 2023 (44 percent).

Still, understanding that hindsight is 20/20, there were decisions that were surprising, decisions we would question regardless of who was at quarterback and regardless of the outcome, decisions that we think McDaniel might not have made in 2023.

Here are some that stand out:

-- At Seattle, Week 3, first quarter, Dolphins trailing 3-0, fourth-and-1, Seattle 39, Dolphins attempt (and miss) a 57-yard field goal: This was Skylar Thompson's first drive of the season after Tua had been placed on IR and it seems like trying everything to get your new starting QB a shot of confidence with a touchdown instead of settling for a very long field goal attempt was the play — even if the Dolphins had failed on second-and-1 and third-and-1. Besides, and this applies to every long field goal attempt, the miss gave Seattle the ball in great field position and they quickly drove down for a touchdown that put Miami in a quick 10-0 hole.

-- Vs. Tennessee, Week 4, second quarter, Dolphins trailing 6-0, fourth-and-2, Tennessee 26, Dolphins kick a field goal: Nothing wrong with this decision, per se, but this is the kind of call that would have gone the other way with McDaniel in 2023 or with Tagovailoa at quarterback instead of Tyler Huntley.

-- At Indianapolis, Week 7, fourth quarter, Dolphins trailing 13-10, fourth-and-1, Indianapolis 36, Dolphins attempt (and miss) a 54-yard field goal: Maybe McDaniel would have made a different decision with Tua at quarterback and if Alec Ingold hadn't been stuffed for no gain on third-and-1, but again it's 1 yard and the rare miss by Sanders gave Indy a short field. Another factor is the play started with 5:19 left in regulation and a make would have only tied the score.

-- At Houston, Week 15, third quarter, Dolphins trailing 20-6, fourth-and-7, Houston 12, Dolphins line up for a field goal: This was a strange call because it was late in the third quarter, Miami wasn't moving the ball very well that day and they were down 14. But McDaniel changed direction after Houston was flagged for offside and Tua threw a touchdown pass to Jonnu Smith on fourth-and-2 to make it a 20-12 game after the extra point was wide left.

-- Vs. San Francisco, Week 16, third quarter, Dolphins leading 13-10, fourth-and-6, San Francisco 36, Dolphins kick a 54-yard field goal: Again, nothing drastically wrong with the decision, except that the field goal only made it a six-point lead and a miss would have given the 49ers the ball at their 44. Yes, this was the luxury of having Sanders being almost automatic in the second half of the season, but we're still thinking maybe McDaniel would have made a difference choice in 2023.

And maybe McDaniel would make a different choice also in 2025 and maybe he'll go back to the more aggressive approach.