Playing the Percentages: Predicting the Dolphins First-Round Pick Position

What position the Miami Dolphins are most likely to target with the 21st overall selection

The Miami Dolphins could go for a lot of different positions with their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft because while the team clearly is a contender, it clearly has several needs.

What the Dolphins end up doing with that first-round pick, where the goal always is to marry the best prospect available with the biggest positional need, largely will depend on which prospects are off the board when the 21st overall selection arrives.

Having said that, we still can formulate a good game plan for the Dolphins draft team if things fall right and here's our best guess at the likely position for that first-round pick by percentage.

EDGE DEFENDER — 25 PERCENT

This position is tricky because the Dolphins have two high-end starters there with Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, but both are coming season-ending injuries and when they'll be back in the lineup and when they'll be back at peak form are two huge question marks.

High-end prospects who potentially could be there at 21 include Laiatu Latu of UCLA and Chop Robinson of Penn State, and either would make a solid addition.

INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINEMAN — 25 PERCENT

Yes, the Dolphins have signed an awful of defensive tackles this season — Neville Gallimore, Benito Jones, Jonathan Harris, Daviyon Nixon, Isaiah Mack, Da'Shawn Hand (re-signed) — but there's no impact player in the group who comes close to what the Dolphins had with Christian Wilkins.

It says here the Dolphins might not be able to resist adding a potential difference-maker here if given the opportunity, say, someone like Jer'Zhan Newton of Illnois or Byron Murphy II of Texas.

GUARD — 20 PERCENT

While free agent pick-up Aaron Brewer played guard before 2023, the feeling here is that he was signed to replace Connor Williams at center.

That leaves the two guard positions in need of an upgrade, though the argument could be made that Miami is solid with re-signed Isaiah Wynn on the left side.

Still, the Dolphins absolutely could use an offensive lineman to help out the offense, whether it be a pure guard or an offensive tackle who could move inside for a year or two before taking over for Terron Armstead.

Names to watch here would include Taliese Fuaga from Oregon State, Graham Barton from Duke and the ever-popular Jackson Powers-Johnson from Oregon.

WIDE RECEIVER — 20 PERCENT

The Dolphins have one of the best starting tandems in the NFL with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but they don't have a clear No. 3 at this time and it also might make sense to start planning for the future at the position.

It's why we have seen the names of Brian Thomas Jr. from LSU, Xavier Leggette from South Carolina and Adonai Mitchell from Texas being thrown around as potential Dolphins picks.

The Dolphins need to maximize the value of the No. 21 overall pick, so taking a wide receiver would make sense if best prospect still on the board playing that position.

We're bothering to mention this position out of respect for FOX college analyst Joel Klatt, who has mocked Washington's Michael Penix Jr. to the Dolphins.

The reality, though, is that the Dolphins have given every indication possible that they're all in on Tua Tagovailoa and the idea of bringing in another quarterback just doesn't jibe with the team's traditional approach at the position.

TRADING DOWN — 10 PERCENT

Depending on the draft analyst, there might not be a huge difference between the 21st-best prospect in the draft and, say, the 35th-best.

With that in mind, maybe it would make sense for the Dolphins to move back a few slots and pick up an additional, say, third- or fourth-round pick provided there's a team willing to go up to 21.

The Dolphins have six picks in the 2024 NFL draft at this time, but only two in the first four rounds. Adding another would make sense, though clearly not at the cost of skipping a better prospect at 21.