Updated Dolphins Playoff Scenarios Through Week 15
The Miami Dolphins did their part in their chase for an AFC wild-card playoff berth when they defeated the New England Patriots, but they didn't get any outside help.
The Dolphins won't need any outside help as long as they keep winning, but that will change if they lose against either the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday night or the Buffalo Bills in Week 17.
And in the event they should lose both of those games, they still would have a mathematical chance at making the playoffs but obviously would need even more help.
The Dolphins are one of five teams realistically competing for four playoff spots to join the AFC East champion Bills, the AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers, who already have clinched a playoff spot and can clinch the AFC North title with a victory at Cincinnati on Monday night.
The five teams involved in this battle royale are the Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens.
It's worth noting the Raiders are still mathematically alive and will make the playoffs if they end up at 9-7 and tied with the Dolphins and Ravens. For that to happen, of course, the Raiders would have to beat Miami and then Denver in Week 17, the Dolphins would have to lose at Buffalo, and the Ravens would have to lose against the New York Giants and at Cincinnati in their final two games.
The Dolphins actually could make the playoffs with a 9-7 record, but only if the Ravens lose their final two games and the Raiders lose at Denver in Week 17.
Since the Dolphins will get a playoff berth if they finish 11-5, then the focus is on the various scenarios if they go 10-6.
And there are an abundance of them.
The teams to watch here in terms of teams the Dolphins could beat out if they split their final two games are Baltimore, Cleveland and Indianapolis.
The problem here is the that Browns and Colts both are 10-4; and the Browns finish at the Jets and at home against Pittsburgh, while the Colts finish at Pittsburgh and at home against Jacksonville.
Given that the Jets and Jaguars each have only one win, it's not likely either Cleveland or Indy won't get to 11 wins, but hey, the Jets just beat the Rams, so you never know.
The Dolphins would win a tiebreaker against either Cleveland or Indianapolis at 10-6 on the basis of conference record.
Baltimore is a different story because what happens to break a tie between the Ravens and Dolphins at 10-6 would depend on how the Ravens split their final two games.
If the Ravens were to finish 10-6 with a loss against the Bengals, then the Dolphins would win a tiebreaker against them on the basis of conference record.
If the Ravens were to finish 10-6 with a loss against the Giants and a victory against Cincinnati, then Baltimore would take the final playoff spot on the basis of strength of victory.
To recap where the Dolphins stand heading into their final three games:
-- They go 2-0, they're in.
-- They go 1-1, they will need Baltimore to lose to the Bengals, or hope the Browns or Colts lose both of their final two games.
-- They go 0-2, they'll need for the Raiders to lose at Denver in Week 17 and they'll need for Baltimore to lose its last two games.
