Nothing Changes for Tua in 2022, Except He's Got More Help
In this story:
Expectations for the Miami Dolphins reached a whole new level this past week after the addition of tackle Terron Armstead but even more so the trade for wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
Hill's speed alone brings all types of possibilities, particularly when combined to the previous additions of speedy running back Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds to join 2021 team MVP Jaylen Waddle.
But while some pundits have suggested the additions on offense have put even more of a focus on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and his ability to raise his game with better talent around him, the reality is that nothing has changed for Tua beyond having a better supporting cast.
In a nutshell, having all kinds of speed around him on offense isn't going to change what he does best, and that's always going to be throwing accurately on short and intermediate passes.
It also doesn't change the pressure on him to perform because this always was going to be a crucial year for him in terms of convincing the Dolphins to move forward with him as their franchise quarterback.
Let's start with the second notion.
A CROSSROADS YEAR FOR TUA
Yes, obviously, the Dolphins will need good quarterback play — better quarterback play than they've gotten in recent years — to maximize the talent they've acquired on offense and make that translate into a playoff appearance.
But from an individual standpoint, the Dolphins most likely were going to have to make a determination on Tua after a third season with him at quarterback regardless — yes, counting the 2020 season when he took over as the starter after the sixth game.
And, yes, that's despite all the challenges that Tua has had to deal with since entering the NFL as the fifth overall pick in the 2020 draft, whether it be the lack of an offseason or training camp in his rookie year because of COVID-19, the open flirtation with Deshaun Watson last year and the lack of ideal pass protection.
Quarterbacks throughout the NFL have to deal with issues of one kind or another at some point, and teams these days just flat out can't wait forever for a quarterback to develop. The last thing any team wants to do is wait too long before realizing its starting quarterback isn't the answer ... cough, Ryan Tannehill, cough.
Maybe it's not totally fair to try to predict Tagovailoa's NFL future after two seasons, but it says here that three seasons will be more than enough.
AFC'S ELITE QUARTERBACKS SHOWED IT EARLY
As proof, just look around the AFC, a conference loaded with elite quarterbacks.
And one thing those eight elite quarterbacks have in common is that they established themselves before the end of their third year, often earlier than that.
Here's the rundown:
Josh Allen: Made the Pro Bowl and was MVP runner-up in his third year.
Lamar Jackson: Was MVP in his second year.
Joe Burrow: Didn't make the Pro Bowl in his second year but should have. Finished with a 108.3 passer rating.
Deshaun Watson: Made the Pro Bowl in his second year.
Derek Carr: Made the Pro Bowl in his second year.
Justin Herbert: Made the Pro Bowl in his second year.
Russell Wilson: Made the Pro Bowl as a rookie.
Patrick Mahomes: Was MVP in his second year.
As for those who keep throwing out Drew Brees as a comparison for what Tua will become, suggesting it took him a while to get established, understand first that the NFL is different now than it was when Brees arrived in 2001 and QBs develop faster and also understand that Brees made the Pro Bowl in his third full season after playing one game as a rookie.
So, yes, the Dolphins need to see some major strides from Tagovailoa in his third season before making a long-term commitment to him, such as signing him to an extension or picking up his fifth-year option. Does it necessarily have to involve a Pro Bowl invitation? No, but there has to be more than what Tua showed in his first two seasons.
And, yes, that would have applied — or should have applied — even if the Dolphins didn't pick up Hill to jazz up the offense.
ADDITIONS WON'T CHANGE TUA'S STRENGTHS
Obviously, the addition of Hill is going to help Tagovailoa produce better results because his history shows a player who routinely takes short passes and turns them into long gains.
And Mostert and Edmonds have that ability as well, as does Waddle, even though it didn't materialize very often in 2021.
And because of all that speed around him, Tagovailoa likely will get more mileage (yards, to be precise) out of the same throws he's made in the past and there could be more quick slants that turn into big plays.
Sure, we could see a few more shots downfield with Hill capable of taking the top off the defense, but Tua isn't going to become a gunslinger overnight because that's just not the kind of NFL quarterback he is.
GARAPPOLO, GOFF AND TUA - THE GOOD AND BAD
Maybe the most encouraging thing with the arrival of head coach Mike McDaniel, who has worked with Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan in the past, is to see what Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo were able to do in their offense.
In his two full seasons with Shanahan as his head coach (and McDaniel in charge of the running game), Garoppolo posted passer ratings of 102.0 and 98.7.
Meanwhile, Goff posted a passer rating of over 100 in both 2017 and 2018 and made the Pro Bowl both seasons for the Rams.
Of course, the flip side to both of those situations is that the Rams traded Goff because they decided he wasn't good enough to help them win a Super Bowl, which they did last season with Matthew Stafford and the 49ers traded two future first-round picks to the Dolphins for the chance to draft Trey Lance last year because of their doubts about Garoppolo.
The bottom line from here is that it's probably very likely that Tagovailoa's passer rating will make a big jump from the 90.1 he produced last season because of McDaniel's offense and the speed on offense that should create much better YAC (yards after catch).
The question will be how well Tagovailoa can maximize the talent around him and whether he can join the ranks of the elite AFC quarterbacks the Dolphins will have to contend with for the foreseeable future.
