Examining the Likelihood of the Dolphins Drafting a Quarterback

Based on the media reports indicating the Miami Dolphins will be hosting Ty Simpson, Carson Beck and now Taylen Green this month, it sure does seem like they're serious about adding a quarterback in the 2026 draft.

Or is it simply a matter of them doing their due diligence or maybe even setting a smokescreen to gain extra leverage for a possible trade?

That answer won't come until the weekend of April 23-26 because it's not like new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan is going to give any definitive answers as to his plans.

And what he has said so far ranging from wanting to draft a quarterback every year or every other year to saying he doesn't feel pressure after signing Malik Willis but "you never say never."

THE IDEA OF DOUBLING DOWN

Of course, it always will be pointed out that the Green Bay Packers never were shy about drafting quarterbacks even when they had Hall of Famer on the roster or after that when they had future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers as their starter.

It's something Sullivan brought in during his introductory press conference after the Dolphins hired him in January.

“I've learned if you can help it, don't wait till you don't have a quarterback to find one, you know what I mean? It starts there. If you think about what we did with Aaron (Rodgers). I watched Ted Thompson. I referred to him earlier, talking about him always doing what is best for the team, even when it's not popular. You’ve got to remember, Brett (Favre) was still in place and playing at a very high level, and there were a lot of people in that building that didn't think drafting a quarterback who was going to sit for an extended amount of time with a first-round pick made a lot of sense with where we were as a team. He did in that moment what he knew was best for the Green Bay Packers and the history speaks for itself, and then we turned around and did it again with Jordan (Love) when we had Aaron, so it starts there, right. The quarterback position again is the most important position in sports in my opinion, certainly the most important position in football. We're going to invest in that position every year if we can. Now depending on where we are as a football team, it'll be at different values, but we will draft quarterbacks every year, if not every other year because I think you have to. If you hit on a guy, great. And if not – if you hit on two, you have trade value. Again, I think if you look at the history of the Green Bay Packers all the way back to Ron Wolf – I mean, Brett Favre's backups were Matt Hasselbeck, Kurt Warner, Aaron Brooks, Ty Detmer, you can go on down the line. I can't say enough about the importance of it and we'll be very active in acquiring quarterbacks to make sure that that room is deep, as deep as we can make it.”

And, to be sure, the Packers made some great picks while having a Hall of Fame quarterback who went on to become starters elsewhere, such as Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Brooks, and even Matt Flynn parlayed one stupendous late-season start into a nice free agent contract with the Seattle Seahawks, only to be beaten out in training camp by rookie third-round pick Russell Wilson.

But here's another fact: All those quarterbacks, with the exception of Flynn, were picked by Sullivan began working for the Packers in 2004.

And this notion of drafting a quarterback every year or every other year really sounds good ... until you look at the data and see that the Packers during Sullivan's 22 years with them didn't come remotely close to doing that.

In Green Bay's 22 drafts after Sullivan joined the organization, the Packers drafted nine quarterbacks.

Since they selected two in 2008 when they transitioned from Favre to Rodgers, the Packers have selected only five in the past 17 drafts. And only one of them came before the fifth round, that being Jordan Love, who they took in Round 1 with the 26th overall pick after moving up from 30th with a trade with, of all teams, the Dolphins.

If the Dolphins do indeed select a quarterback in 2026 — and we'd still make it less than 50-50 it'll happen — it's not likely to happen in an early round.

Yes, the Atlanta Falcons did that exact thing when they drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in 2024 weeks after signing veteran Kirk Cousins to a free agent contract rich enough for everyone to believe he was going to be their starting quarterback for at least the next couple of years. But that was an outlier and a repeat would be borderline shocking.

In case there happened to be any doubt left, what Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley said about Willis in their media sessions at the owners meetings should have made it clear he's the guy for the foreseeable future.

“Malik is our guy," Sullivan said to the South Florida reporters who traveled to Arizona this week, per Omar Kelly of The Miami Herald. "I’m very happy with Quinn (Ewers). Quinn will tell you he ain’t going [out] quietly. I’ve had my own conversations with him. There is going to be a lot of competition in that room. I don’t feel the pressure now that I did six weeks ago. But you never say never, and if [the draft board] fell a certain way, I have no problem doing it.”

So, as he should, Sullivan is leaving the door open.

That doesn't mean he's going to open it wide (for lack of a better metaphor).

THE DOLPHINS HISTORY OF DOUBLING DOWN

Looking back at the Dolphins' own draft history, we could find only one instance of them taking a quarterback after signing a veteran starter in free agency, and that happened in 2012.

This was the year Joe Philbin came over from, where else?, Green Bay to take over as head coach and the Dolphins signed David Garrard as a free agent to join returning backup Matt Moore on the roster.

In the draft, the Dolphins picked their quarterback of the future (or so they hoped) when they selected Ryan Tannehill with the eighth overall pick.

Garrard was on track to become the starter early in training camp before he sustained a freaky knee injury at home and was lost for the season, and Philbin then turned to Tannehill.

The Dolphins ended up with both a veteran starter and an early draft pick at quarterback in both 2007 and 2008, but the draft pick came first in each instance.

In 2007, the Dolphins selected John Beck in the second round and then traded for veteran Trent Green, who was knocked out in Week 5 with a nasty concussion. Beck got four starts later in that season and flopped and was gone from Miami by the next year.

In 2008, the Dolphins drafted Chad Henne in the second round and he was part of a training camp battle with veteran Josh McCown and Beck until the New York Jets released Chad Pennington in August after they signed — full circle moment — Favre when he decided to quickly come out of retirement.

Pennington played a key role in the Dolphins going 11-5 and winning the AFC East title in that 2008 season, while Henne never really panned out despite getting two shots as the opening-day starter, in 2010 and 2011.

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