Examining Whether the Dolphins Are Lurking with 4-7 Record

The Miami Dolphins will return from their bye with a long road to climb

Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) carries the ball defended by Washington Commanders linebacker Jordan Magee (58) in the second quarter during the 2025 NFL Madrid Game at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins apparently are not "lurking" in the AFC playoff picture, according to "Good Morning Football," though they were viewed as "in the hunt" over the weekend.

So the big question here is whether the Dolphins deserve to be mentioned whenever AFC playoff hopefuls are listed ... well, actually, it's really not.

The Dolphins have some work to do before any playoff talk can seriously be entertained, and that work involves defeating both the New Orleans Saints at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday and the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in Week 14 to get to 6-7.

If Miami gets to that point — and the Dolphins will be favored in each game — then the discussion can start for real.

But for now, yeah, it's probably premature to include the Dolphins in a playoff graphic, just like GMFB omitted the Atlanta Falcons and the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC with their matching 4-7 record.

THE HISTORY OF 4-7 TEAMS AND THE PLAYOFFS

This isn't to say the Dolphins can't get into the playoffs, though the history with the 17-game regular season suggests it's almost impossible.

Since the 17-game season began in 2021, there have been two teams that have made the playoffs after being no better than 4-7 through 11 games — the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars and the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

But here's the catch: Both those teams made the playoffs by winning their division, and the only way the Dolphins can do that this season is to win out to finish 10-7, have the New England Patriots lose their final five games to also finish 10-7, and to have the Buffalo Bills lose at least three of the final six to also finish 10-7, and then tiebreakers start coming into play.

Considering the Patriots have games left against the two struggling New York teams, the Jets and the Giants, they're really not likely to go 0-5 down the stretch.

And this is where it gets tough for the Dolphins because there have been four teams that have rebounded from 4-7 to finish with a winning record, including the 2021 Dolphins, but none of them made the playoffs after ending up 9-8. The other three teams to finish 9-8 after being 4-7 were the 2024 Cincinnati Bengals, the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 2022 Detroit Lions.

It's worth noting that no team has ever finished 10-7 after being 4-7.

And the last team to run the table after being 4-7 in a 16-game season was none other than the Miami Dolphins, who did in 2005 in Nick Saban's first year as head coach when they won their six games to turn a 3-7 record into 9-7 — though it wasn't enough to get them into the playoffs.