Should Dolphins Go the Wilson Route with Tua or Osweiler or Neither?

The Miami Dolphins will have a tough decision to make regarding QB Tua Tagovailoa after the season.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) runs out of the pocket in the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Now that the Miami Dolphins have benched quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with three games left in the regular season and the team is now out of playoff contention, the question now becomes what happens next year.

Normally, it would be a slam dunk that the Dolphins would move on from Tagovailoa if head coach Mike McDaniel has reached the point of making him the No. 3 quarterback, but there's that sticky issue of Tua's contract, and all that guaranteed money and the nasty cap hit that's coming whether or not he's on the roster in 2026.

As has been well documented, Tua is guaranteed $54 million in 2026 with a cap number of $56.4 million, and that number goes up to $99 million if the Dolphins release him, though they can make it $67 million in 2026 and $32 million in 2027 if they make him a post-June 1 designation.

Tagovailoa's contract also includes a $27 million injury guarantee should he get hurt while playing and not be able to pass a physical, plus a $3 million bonus due on the third day of the 2026 league year.

That $3 million is chump change in NFL money, but the cap number most definitely isn't.

And it's why moving on from Tagovailoa is more complicated than his benching would suggest.

If the Dolphins do decide to end the Tua era in Miami, the two routes it can take can be referred to as the Russell Wilson route and the Brock Osweiler route.

THE BROCK OSWEILER OPTION

Before he joined the Dolphins to back up Ryan Tannehill in Tannehill's last year with Miami in 2018, Osweiler had moved around the NFL, and he was involved in a unique trade that basically amounted to a salary dump.

In March of 2017, one year after the Houston Texans had signed him to a four-year, $72 million contract as a free agent, they had a massive case of buyer's remorse and traded him to the Cleveland Browns along with a second-round pick in the 2018 draft and a sixth-round pick in 2017 for a fourth-round pick in 2017.

The value of the trade for the Texans was dumping Osweiler's contract (minus the signing bonus proration), and it was worth it to them to give up that second-round pick, which the Browns eventually used on a star running back Nick Chubb.

The Dolphins could do something similar with Tagovailoa, resulting in his cap charge to them going from $99 million to about $45 million.

Yes, it's painful to give up a draft pick, but there is no pain-free solution if the Dolphins want to move on from Tua.

This is a route favorite by NFL analyst and former NFL defensive lineman Chris Canty.

"If the Dolphins front office and ownership know what they're doing, it is far more likely that they trade Tua than cut Tua," Canty said on "Unsportsmanlike." "Here's why. You have a quarterback-weak draft right now. If the draft were to start today, you'd have the 11th pick, and the Miami Dolphins have five total picks in the first two days. Here's what you do. You convince a team to take Tua, and essentially you pay them off with a draft pick. You go Brock Osweiler style with the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans. You go NBA player trade style in a salary dump. That's what you do.

"You pay a team for their troubles to take on Tua. Now, that acquiring team could do exactly what the Cleveland Browns did, which is cut Brock Osweiler before the start of the season. That's what you do, but that's how you extricate yourself from this situation. You pay off a team with a draft pick to get the salary off your books and to not absorb a $99 million dead cap. If you trade him, as opposed to cut him, you save about half of the dead cap hit it goes from $99 million to $45 million or give or take. So that's where you're at. That's the waters that you're swimming in."

The one issue that Canty doesn't mention is that the acquiring team would become responsible for some $50 million for Tagovailoa in 2026, and the question becomes exactly how many teams would be willing to trade for him, given that financial commitment and Tua's regression.

This also is where the Dolphins might be asked to chip in financially to entice another team to take Tua.

THE RUSSELL WILSON OPTION

The other option for the Dolphins, particularly if they don't want to relinquish draft picks in what could be another rebuilding phase, is to simply cut Tagovailoa and absorb the cap pain.

That's the Wilson option, though, as it has been pointed out, one difference is that the Broncos cut Wilson before they were on the hook for an additional $37 million.

The Broncos gave up $53 million of cap space in 2024 and another $32 million this year to dump Wilson, but they made the playoffs last season after drafting Bo Nix with the 12th overall selection in the 2024 draft, and they have the best record in the NFL in 2025.

Now, just because it went so smoothly for the Broncos doesn't mean it will be as seamless for Miami, particularly because it doesn't have a great defense in place like Denver did.

But if the Dolphins want to move on from Tua, it might be the only option because, again, a trade will be difficult to consummate.

After a quick look at every team's QB situation heading into 2026, we can identify the following teams as likely or possibly being in the market: the Jets, Steelers, Browns, Colts, Raiders, Vikings, Saints and Cardinals.

Given Tua's arm limitations, we'd eliminate the first three teams right away, which would leave five possibilities.

Sure, all it takes is one team. But the Tua of 2025-26 isn't nearly as tradable as the 2022-23 version.

So, yes, trading him will be tough. Simply cutting him will be painful.

It's why it's still no sure thing the Dolphins will move on from him, and he could be back in 2026, even after being benched.