Why Dolphins Taking Ty Simpson at No. 11 Would Be a Panic Move

Quarterback desperation will strike several NFL teams this offseason.

The Miami Dolphins are one team that is at risk of that. With so few legitimate franchise QB options, teams might have to take more risk than usual to find one or punt on it altogether.

One national analyst believes the Dolphins should take a big risk. ESPN analyst and former NFL QB Dan Orlovsky said that if Miami misses out on Malik Willis, the team should select Alabama QB Ty Simpson at 11th overall in a TV appearance Monday.

This wasn’t Orlovsky’s only surprising recent Simpson take, either. He also posted that he believes Simpson’s early season tape was better than presumed top pick Fernando Mendoza’s.

While that’s not a take we agree with, there’s no point in debating that for the sake of the Dolphins. Regardless of Orlovsky’s opinion, Mendoza is going first overall.

What is worth debating is whether the Dolphins should take Simpson 11th overall.

Should Dolphins Consider Simpson at 11 Overall?

From a pure value perspective, if the Dolphins believe Simpson is a genuine franchise-changing QB then taking him at 11 is a steal.

The problem is that Simpson doesn’t project like an immediate franchise-changing passer. Orlovsky is right in saying that Simpson played well during the first eight weeks of the season.

The Alabama passer threw for 18 touchdowns, one interception, and 1,931 passing yards with an EPA per dropback of 0.39. On tape, Simpson was reading out NFL-level concepts, making adjustments at the line, and hitting tight window throws.

That’s an excellent profile, but unfortunately for Simpson, the other half of the season exists. After Week 8, Simpson logged 10 touchdowns, four interceptions, 1,636 yards, and a -0.07 EPA per dropback. He also completed less than 60% of his passes.

More troubling, Simpson’s worst play came against the best competition. He was dreadful in the SEC Championship against Georgia and hardly a positive factor in the College Football Playoff against Indiana. He also had some duds in Week 12 against Oklahoma and Week 14 against Auburn.

He was at least serviceable in the team’s comeback victory in the CFP against Oklahoma, but Simpson hardly rose to the occasion when Alabama needed him.

Those are the numbers, but the film is the other side of the coin. There are plenty of things to like about Simpson’s tape, especially in those early-season performances, but there are also some troubling trends.

Simpson’s accuracy and placement are a little erratic, especially when he’s dealing with consistent pressure. He likes to test tight windows down the field, but his placement wanes in the face of pressure.

This leads to more problems when evaluating Simpson’s physical tools. He has a perfectly fine arm for the NFL level, but it’s probably closer to average, and it’s certainly not elite.

Additionally, Simpson’s size could be an issue. He measured in at 6-1, 211 pounds at the NFL combine, which is good for the 14th and 16th percentile among QBs since 1999, according to Mockdraftable’s database.

He’s not Bryce Young or Kyler Murray levels of small, but Simpson isn’t exactly an imposing presence.

When you put all of this together, you have the profile of a slightly undersized quarterback with average arm talent, just 15 career starts, and highly inconsistent tape.

That’s not the profile of a quarterback who should go in the first round, let alone at pick 11. There’s enough on film to believe in Simpson as a mid-round selection — those first eight games looked quite good.

But Miami taking him at 11 would be a total panic move. New GM Jon-Eric Sullivan has spoken at length about building this team from the inside out and not rushing things.

Taking Simpson at 11 would be drafting a quarterback just for the sake of doing it. The Dolphins simply can’t afford to make decisions like that this offseason.