Examining the Dolphins Bad Luck and Bad Decisions at Quarterback

It’s unfortunately déjà vu all over again for the Miami Dolphins when it comes to needing a franchise quarterback, having an early pick in the draft but no one to legitimately use it on.

The Dolphins are scheduled to have the 11th overall pick in the 2026 draft and badly could use a long-term starting quarterback, but no prospect at the position beyond Fernando Mendoza looks like a slam dunk who would merit that spot or a small trade up in the first round — and Miami would be foolish to mortgage their future to try to trade up to number 1 overall, even if the Las Vegas Raiders were willing to bypass the chance to take Mendoza.

So the Dolphins will be left to try to find a franchise quarterback via free agency or the trade or, even more likely, punt on the project until 2027 and go with a bridge quarterback until they find that long-term answer.

Whether the Dolphins sign Malik Willis in free agency — and his market value could price him out as an option — or trade for someone like Jalen Milroe or Will Levis or Anthony Richardson or even Mac Jones, the chances of that franchise quarterback arriving in 2026 are pretty slim.

This clearly isn’t like 2004 when the Pittsburgh Steelers were able to land Ben Roethlisberger with the 11th overall pick as the third quarterback selected after Eli Manning went first overall to the San Diego Chargers and Philip Rivers went fourth to the New York Giants before those teams swapped them because Manning refused to play for the Chargers.

THE DOLPHINS’ BAD DRAFT LUCK HISTORY

Unfortunately, this isn’t the first time the Dolphins have gone into a draft badly needing a quarterback but there being no slam-dunk answer for their early pick.

Because the Dolphins were lucky enough to have two Hall of Famers at the position from 1967 through 1999 — and, yes, Miami got very lucky with Dan Marino somehow falling to 27th in 1983 after the Dolphins had gotten to the Super Bowl with David Woodley as their starters — the examples all have come since the start of the millennium.

And specifically we’re looking at the drafts of 2005 and 2008.

In 2005, the Dolphins had the second overall pick after finishing the previous season with a 4-12 record and were starting over with Nick Saban as head coach.

After the San Francisco 49ers took Utah QB Alex Smith with the No. 1 pick, the Dolphins took running back Ronnie Brown out of Auburn, a big back who went on to have a solid NFL career but generally wasn’t a game-changer.

The second quarterback picked that year was Aaron Rodgers, but he didn’t go until 24th to the Green Bay Packers and followed by Jason Campbell going 25th to Washington.

Twenty-one years after the fact, it’s easy to see that the Dolphins and every other team that passed on Rodgers missed the boat big time, but he clearly wasn’t a consensus can’t-miss prospect at the time, so there was a bit of bad luck involved there.

In 2008, the Dolphins had the first overall pick for the first and only time in franchise history and this draft lacked the slam-dunk choice like Matthew Stafford the following year or Andrew Luck in 2012 or Peyton Manning in 1998 or Joe Burrow in 2020.

The Dolphins bypassed taking Matt Ryan in favor of Michigan left tackle Jake Long, who looked like a Hall of Fame player until his career was derailed by a series of knee injuries.

With Ryan having had a long NFL career that included a Super Bowl appearance and an NFL MVP nod with the Atlanta Falcons in the 2016 season, it’s easy to go back and say the Dolphins simply made the mistake of not going with the quarterback there, but this is where we’ll point out that Ryan didn’t go second overall that year; he went third.

And it’s not like the St. Louis Rams picking at number 2 couldn’t have used a franchise quarterback because they were coming off a 3-13 season with journeyman Marc Bulger leading the offense.

So, no, Matt Ryan was not a slam-dunk, no-doubt-about-it choice at number 1 — even though it’s easy to look back now and say the Dolphins messed up by not taking him.

Now, it’s not like it’s only bad luck that’s hurt the Dolphins in their quest for that elusive franchise quarterback.

There have been bad choices as well.

For example, it’s not like they didn’t have a chance to take Lamar Jackson in 2018, though again they weren’t alone in making the curious decision to skip on a generational talent because he went 32nd overall.

The Dolphins also blew a golden opportunity in 2001 when they did get very lucky to see Drew Brees still available when they were up at pick 26, only to see them made the remarkable regrettable decision to select Wisconsin cornerback Jamar Fletcher instead.

We also could mention the decision of 2020, of course, and going with Tua Tagovailoa instead of Justin Herbert, who received an MVP vote last season and still is projecting upward while Tua was benched late last season and very well could be on his way out.

The Dolphins eventually will land that franchise quarterback, we think and hope, but it likely won’t happen this year.

But this time it will be because of bad fortune and not a bad decision.