Why the Tua Move Seemed Like a Foregone Conclusion

It's now official.

After weeks of speculation about the future of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and his status with the Miami Dolphins, the team announced its decision Monday morning.

And it's the one that had been predicted for a while.

The Dolphins will be releasing Tagovailoa at the start of the new league year Wednesday, with reports indicating it will be with a post-June 1 designation.

That means the Dolphins will spread out the record $99 million dead cap hit they'll take with Tua over the next two years, with $67 million counting against the books in 2026 and an additional $32 million in 2027.

The Dolphins' announcement on social media included this statement from new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan:

"I recently informed Tua and his representation that we are going to move in a new direction at the quarterback position and will be releasing him after the start of the new league year.

"As I shared with Tua, I have great respect for the person and player he is. On behalf of the Miami Dolphins, I expressed our gratitude for his many contributions, both on the field and in the community, during his six seasons in Miami.

"As we move forward, we will be focused on infusing competition across the roster and establishing a strong foundation for this team as we work toward building a sustained winner."

WHY THIS ALWAYS WAS THE MOVE

The Dolphins' decision to release Tagovailoa no doubt follows the inability of the team to find a trade partner without having to give up too much additional compensation, whether in the form of paying some of Tua's salary or throwing in choice draft picks as a sweetener.

The idea of keeping Tua on the roster because he already was going to take up a huge chunk of the salary cap regardless made sense on the surface, but the new Dolphins brass — we would include new head coach Jeff Hafley here — decided that starting over as an organization really meant starting over.

And if the idea is to infuse competition at quarterback, it's a tough spot to have it involve the man who's been the unquestioned starter from the moment he arrived as the fifth overall pick in 2020.

And for those suggesting the Dolphins simply could have made Tua battle Quinn Ewers and others to keep that starting job, Sullivan, Hafley and everybody else in the organization knows by now what Tua's ceiling is — it's been five-plus seasons already and the apex was 2023 when the Dolphins still weren't good enough to beat good teams.

Remember that comment from Stephen Ross back when he hired Brian Flores as head coach in 2019 and said he was tired of the team always being around .500 and the desire for me? This is what happened here with the Dolphins and Tua.

As the Dolphins headed into the offseason, it was entirely possible that Tua would be the best quarterback on the roster had they maintained the status quo at the position, but would that be good enough to get the team where it wants to go?

Almost definitely not.

So the idea was to begin the search as quickly as possible for that elusive franchise quarterback, the kind that makes coaches and GM not worry about having competition at that position.

THE REAL END

Truth is, Tagovailoa's fate in Miami likely was sealed before Sullivan and Hafley arrived and was determined when he was benched by head coach Mike McDaniel followed the Monday night loss at Pittsburgh that officially eliminated the team from playoff contention.

Even though he finished that game with a 113.2 passer rating, the reality is that Tagovailoa simply wasn't good enough that night for the Dolphins to compete because he put up his stats in the fourth quarter after the Dolphins went down 28-3 — in the first three quarters, he had 65 passing yards with no touchdowns and one pick.

Even if McDaniel had been retained as head coach for 2026, there seemed little to no chance the Dolphins were going to move forward with Tua as their quarterback.

And, like it or not, maybe there was no other choice after his performance went in the wrong direction since that 2023 season when he was selected to the Pro Bowl and the contract extension that followed the next summer.

The Dolphins were looking to move forward as an organization this offseason, and that absolutely entailed moving on from Tagovailoa.

In an ideal world, they would have been able to trade for him, but the Dolphins made that impossible with the contract they gave him two summers ago.

In the end, they made the move that was expected all along.