It's Boom or Bust if Eagles go WR in First Round

Three times in this century have the Eagles drafted a wide receiver in the first round.

It’s a short list and also not a very distinguished one.

Here it is:

Freddie Mitchell, 2001, 25th overall

Jeremy Maclin, 2009, 29th overall

Nelson Agholor, 2015, 20th overall

If there is a trend, it’s that all three picks were made when the Eagles drafted in the 20s. Kind of like this year, where the team holds the 21st overall selection when the first round goes off on April 23, and could be spending their choice that evening on a pass catcher.

Only the selection of Maclin makes this short list from being nothing more than a crumpled ball of paper used to jumpstart that backyard firepit.

Another trend, from a league-wide standpoint, has become the struggle teams have had in getting successful college receivers to become successful NFL receivers.

Here are 10 first-round busts in just the past decade:

Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs, 26th overall, 2011

Justin Blackmon Jaguars, 5th overall, 2012 (drug use was more responsible for his early washout probably more than anything else)

A.J. Jenkins, 49ers, 30th overall, 2012

Kevin White, Bears, 7th overall, 2015. (Injuries were the reason he never panned out)

Breshad Perriman, Ravens, 26th overall 2015

Corey Coleman, Browns 15th overall, 2016

Josh Doctson, Redskins, 22nd overall, 2016

Laquan Treadwell, Vikings, 23rd overall, 2016

John Ross, Bengals, 9th overall, 2017 (Still has time to shed bust label)

SiriusXM NFL radio analysts Gil Brandt and Mark Dominick, on a conference call with reporters Tuesday, gave their opinions why receivers have a difficult time making the leap from college to the pros.

“I think one of the things that makes it tough to evaluate is there is so much difference playing at the National Football League level because of all the different defenses we see and all the adjustments they have to make,” said Brandt, a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame after a career spent primarily as the VP player personnel for the Dallas Cowboys from 1960-1989.

“It’s probably, next to the quarterback percentage-wise, the highest mortality rate of any position on the field.”

Brandt believes the mental makeup of a receiver is just as important has the tangible skills of speed and route running. He said that separation is a key.

“There’s a lot of guy who can run fast but they can’t separate,” said Brandt, “so I think you have to try to find guys in college that have good separation.”

For what it’s worth, Brandt added that he liked the separation LSU’s Justin Jefferson is able to create. Jefferson is a player many mock drafts have the Eagles taking with their pick at 21.

Dominick believes receiver evaluation has to take into account the cornerbacks and safeties high-level receivers are going against.

“I think the big reason why receivers don’t probably ascend than bust more because in college they’re going against 18, 19, and 20-year-old men who still aren’t strong or as physical as they’re going to end up being, so a guy who is a little more gifted or stronger at that point is going to show up at being a better player from that perspective,” said Dominick, who worked in an NFL front office role for 20 seasons, 19 of them with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

“Whereas when you get in the NFL, now it’s going to be, wait a second, now you’re going against a 29-year-old man and that’s a huge difference as you can imagine.”

Now along comes a draft class that is believed to be populated with receivers of boundless talent and various skillsets, and the Eagles will be one of the many teams hoping their evaluations will be correct.

The Eagles swung and missed with Mitchell, who was out of the league after four years and 90 receptions.

They hit a single with Agholor, and the only reason that wasn’t strikeout was because of Agholor’s breakout season of 2017, which was also the Super Bowl winning year. Agholor really stepped up in that win over the Patriots in SBLII.

The Eagles must hit the kind of home run they did when they landed Maclin 11 years ago, should they go receiver in the first round.

Maclin spent five of his eight NFL years with the Eagles, leaving for Kansas City as a free agent following the best year of his career in 2014 when he had 85 receptions for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns.

In his Philly years, he made 343 catches for 4,771 yards and 36 touchdowns.

That’s the kind of production they could certainly use for the next five seasons.