In The Game Of Who Cares? Eagles Played Late-Game Situation Correctly

PHILADELPHIA - About No. 79 on the list of an awful Black Friday Eagles performance during a 24-15 loss to the Chicago Bears was the “curious” approach of Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni after his team cut a 15-point deficit into a nine-point game on A.J. Brown’s second touchdown of the game with 3:10 left, and the Eagles’ possessing all three of their timeouts.

Conventional wisdom is that you kick the extra point to make it a “one-possession game” and “keep hope alive.”

The analytical viewpoint had long ditched that sentiment, preaching facts over feelings with the cold and calculated assessment that more information is always greater than less.

Boiled down further, the idea is that you have to convert a two-point conversion at some point.

If you’re successful with 3:10 left you’re down one touchdown and a PAT, so you know you’re playing to tie the game (or win it with another two-point conversion) with a defensive stop.

If you play it safe, and you’re down eight points after the defensive stop, the entire game hinges on the one two-point play.

The disconnect is that all “one-possession games” are equal, but the difference between a seven-point and eight-point deficit is still very statistically significant in the NFL.

"Obviously, we had to get [a two-point conversion] at one point,” Sirianni said. … I've done a lot of studies on that in my notes down nine. I'm always going to go for a two in that scenario, so I followed the plan that-- again, I don't try to wing anything in situational football. That's what I wanted to do.

“That's in my notes from my studies in the past, and that's what we did.”

Increasing the Odds

Nick Sirianni and Ben Johnson — Nov 28, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni speaks with Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson after the game at Lincoln Financial Field. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

From there, Sirianni went into the background.

“Now, the thought behind it is you want to know exactly what you need right there,” he explained. “If you go down seven, then obviously it's a one-score game. If you go down eight, I know it's a one-score game as well. That's what we do in that scenario.”

Ultimately, this is like arguing death by firing squad vs. a slower mortality because the end game is nearly always the team with the 15-point lead late winning the football game.

To be fair to Sirianni, though, the outliers have been using his preferred method.

“I'll always go back and look and reconsider things,” Sirianni said. “Had three timeouts there to be able to potentially kick it deep there if we did get it. Obviously, we didn't in that particular case, but at some point, you're going to need it and I always want to know early what I need going forward."

Of course, the real answer is simple. Instead of trying to win the lottery by minimally increasing the odds, don’t be behind by 15 with 3:10 left in the game as a touchdown favorite.

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