2023 NFL Draft Projected Order: Will Falcons Pick Top 5?

The Atlanta Falcons have now had top-10 picks in back-to-back NFL drafts, a trend that they're certainly hoping to break.

Now in the second year of a new regime led by general manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Arthur Smith, the Falcons have experienced significant roster turnover, and will be attempting to parlay that into a more successful 2022 season.

However, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Atlanta isn't projected to take the strides it's hoping for. Per ESPN, the Falcons have an 8.6-percent chance at the first overall pick, and a 56.6-percent chance to be selecting inside of the top-10. As such, the team landed no. 5 overall on ESPN's projected order.

The primary cause behind these odds is a lack of faith in Atlanta's quarterbacks, namely Marcus Mariota, whom the team signed this offseason after trading Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts.

"After two years without a start, ESPN's FPI assumes quarterback Marcus Mariota is going to be a drag on the Atlanta offense. That's fair. But there's also not much to drag down. Tight end Kyle Pitts is the only real established star on that side of the ball. There's more to like on defense with cornerback A.J. Terrell and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett leading the way, but having what our FPI expects will be the worst offense in football is too much to overcome." - ESPN's Seth Walder

In order to shake the billing of "the worst offense in football," the Falcons will need instant production from newcomer receivers Drake London and Bryan Edwards, returning "wide back" Cordarrelle Patterson, and either of its new QBs - Mariota or rookie Desmond Ridder.

Further, the Falcons will need its offensive line to improve substantially from last season. While left tackle Jake Matthews and right guard Chris Lindstrom starred, left guard Jalen Mayfield, center Matt Hennessy, and right tackle Kaleb McGary all struggled throughout the campaign. According to ESPN, there is hope that the team can outperform expectations.

"The Falcons have one of the most questionable quarterback situations in the league, with veteran Mariota or rookie Desmond Ridder set to start. But if rookies Drake London (wide receiver) and Tyler Allgeier (running back) play well, it could open things up for second-year coach Arthur Smith's playcalling and allow him to innovate more on offense. Add in the potential for a stronger pass rush -- again, the Falcons will need rookie edge rushers Arnold Ebiketie and DeAngelo Malone to at least play up to expectations -- and Atlanta could have the chance to overacheive." - Michael Rothstein"

Should the Falcons live up to these expectations, it's possible they pursue a quarterback to shore up what Rothstein dubbed, "one of the most questionable quarterback situations in the league." Two names to remember entering next offseason are QBs Bryce Young (Alabama) and C.J. Stroud (Ohio State).

If Atlanta struggles, but Ridder shows enough to inspire confidence that he can be the solution moving forward, Alabama defensive end Will Anderson. becomes a viable option. As a sophomore, the 20-year-old totaled 17.5 sacks and 31.5 tackles-for-loss.

The 2023 NFL Draft is still over 10 months away, and the Falcons have 17 games to prove ESPN's oddsmakers wrong. However, if these early indications are correct, Atlanta will be picking in the top-10 for the third consecutive year.