Is Tyler Allgeier Trade Bait for Atlanta Falcons before NFL Draft?

The Atlanta Falcons have arguably the best running back tandem in the NFL in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

Robinson and Allgeier combined for 2,100 yards rushing in 2024. Robinson contributed 1,456 yards and Allgeier accounted for 644. That number was good for fourth among running back tandems in the NFL behind the Eagles (2,295), Lions (2,187), and Ravens (2,149). The Eagles and Ravens were skewed heavily towards Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.

Allgeier was a fifth-round pick in general manager Terry Fontenot's second draft with the Falcons in 2022. He's entering the final year of his rookie contract and the Falcons are in desperate need for more picks heading into April's NFL Draft.

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With Bijan Robinson getting the majority of the workload, it's reasonable to assume that the Falcons could move Allgeier before losing him after 2025 as a free agent. Allgeier finished 2024 as Pro Football Focus's (PFF) eighth-highest graded running back and could be the top back on the free agent market after next season.

Trading Allgeier isn't a particularly strong option for the Falcons heading into the draft. While Allgeier will have a lot of suitors as a free agent, this is also a strong class of running backs in the draft. The Falcons don't want to lose him as a free agent after the season. So why would another team want to trade a pick of any value to put themselves in the same boat?

The best the Falcons would be looking at as a return for Allgeier would be a fifth-round pick at best.

The immediate reaction to a statement like that is, "that's crazy, Allgeier is worth way more than a fifth-round pick."

From a talent perspective? Yes. To the Atlanta Falcons? Yes. But his contract and position says "no."

Teams have to ask themselves, would we rather have one year of Allgeier or four years of a fourth-round pick? Remember, Allgeier himself was a fifth-rounder, and again, this is considered one of the deepest running back classes in some time. For a position seen as disposable, like running back, teams would rather draft.

Allgeier is much more valuable to the Falcons in 2025, not only for the production he already provides, but for insurance for Robinson. There's no guarantee Robinson stays healthy in 2025, and he was already fourth in the NFL in carries last year, with 304. Significantly adding to that load isn't the best of ideas.

The Falcons still have options with Allgeier, though. If he were to leave as a free agent, there's a slight chance Atlanta could get a compensatory pick in return. That's unlikely, because the Falcons will be active themselves in the free agent market in 2026. Each free agent signed cancels out a free agent lost in the comp formula.

While it's unlikely the Falcons would be able to move Allgeier for a worthy return before the draft next month, that doesn't rule out a trade completely. Teams would rather draft a running back instead of trading for one in April, but that won't be an option once the season begins.

If the Falcons are hovering around .500 and aren't considered legitimate playoff threats in October, Allgeier's value will skyrocket ahead of the trade deadline. Kareem Hunt was the Chiefs' leading rusher in the Super Bowl with three carries for nine yards. Would getting Allgeier for a playoff run be worth better than a fifth-round pick for a Super Bowl contender?

However, re-signing Allgeier isn't out of the question. The running back market is so deflated compared to other positions that having two relatively high-priced running backs is still peanuts in the grand scheme of the salary cap.

Chuba Hubbard of the Carolina Panthers is the 10th-highest paid running back on average at $8.3 million according to Spotrac. Cooper Kupp holds the same position for wide receivers at $26.7 million.

Plus, the first-year of a new contract almost always carries the lightest impact on the salary cap. Hubbard's deal was four years and $44 million with $16.5 million guaranteed (essentially a two-year, $16.5 million contract), and it only carried a $3.8 million cap hit in year one.

Allgeier will have made $4 million on his rookie deal. He'll at least double that the first year of his second contract. He may want to be the No. 1 running back on a different team in 2026, and if Allgeier gets top-10 money, he should probably walk.

But financially speaking, it's not out of the question that the Falcons could re-sign Allgeier.