ESPN Analyst Raises Concerns About Falcons QB Tua Tagovailoa

Was Tua Tagovailoa's 2025 season the blip, or was everything before it? That question just might define the Atlanta Falcons' season before it even starts.

The franchise wrapped up its offseason program this week, and the reactions to the early days of the looming quarterback competition are still reverberating across the league. After minicamp wrapped, Michael Penix Jr. remained limited, while Tua Tagovailoa handled the majority of first-team work during minicamp.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski reiterated during minicamp that no jobs will be decided in June, explaining that the team is still in the very early stages of its program, but Tagovailoa could be considered the early favorite.

Tagovailoa, who joined the Falcons on a one-year prove-it deal after being cast aside by the Dolphins this offseason, is the presumed frontrunner. Should he win the job, the Falcons will be counting on his dreadful 2025 season as a blip on the radar rather than a trend. Which way is he going? ESPN’s Ben Solak offered up his assessment of the Falcons’ quarterback contender.

The Dolphins struggled last season, and Tagovailoa’s issues were a key contributor to that. Solak notes that the quarterback “never had a less effective season,” highlighting his poor sack and interception rates.

His time in Miami was not all bad, and his efficiency numbers were enough to earn him a massive new deal in 2024 worth $212.4 million. When healthy, the Mike McDaniel/Tagovailoa pairing was a force. The offensive-minded head coach had developed the ideal offense for the quick-releasing and accurate Tagovailoa, but Solak refers to those early years as the blip and the most recent struggles as the real trend.

Solak explained that it’s difficult to sustain the explosiveness that the Dolphins flashed, given Tagovailoa’s lack of arm strength. He argued it is nearly impossible to release the ball quickly enough that a quarterback's size and comfort absorbing contact never becomes a factor.

He noted that the scheme had Tagovailoa getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds on 62% of his throws (the league average is around 44%). If that wasn’t difficult enough to sustain, injuries to the elite wide receiver corps were enough to knock the train completely off the rails.

At his core, Solak's main criticisms largely center on whether Tagovailoa can overcome the physical limitations that Miami spent years scheming around. After defenses adjusted and the injuries mounted, his margin for error became increasingly thin, and the veteran struggled.

But should he win the job, Tagovailoa would have some dominant skill players, similar to those who helped him succeed in his early years in Miami. He could occupy that same role of ‘point guard’ and simply get the ball out quickly to Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons won't need him to be much more than that.

Kevin Stefanski’s scheme is also notably different from what McDaniel ran, but Solak is correct in the comparison that it doesn’t rely on a vertical element, which would help conceal Tagovailoa’s lack of elite arm talent.

Solak may be right that Tagovailoa is unlikely to recapture the version of himself that helped power Miami's explosive offenses, but the Falcons don't necessarily need that player. They simply need a quarterback who protects the football, distributes it efficiently, and takes advantage of one of the league's better collections of skill talent.

If Tagovailoa can do that, he could revive his career in Atlanta. If not, the door remains open for Penix to seize the franchise's future.

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