ESPN Thinks Atlanta Falcons Have an Advantage in Clash with Bills

This advantage for the Atlanta Falcons goes against the typical wisdom of how to evaluate an NFL schedule

The Atlanta Falcons come into the matchup having caught their breath | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons had the earliest possible bye week in the 2025 season, taking their break in Week 5. It has long been believed that teams benefit more from a late-season bye, giving them a chance to regroup and recharge ahead of a potential deep playoff push. However, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler believes an early bye week may actually hold a more significant advantage. 

According to ESPN Research, teams coming off a Week 5 bye over the past two seasons have posted a 56.7% winning percentage for the remainder of the year.  The most notable examples of teams turning it around with an early bye are the Los Angeles Chargers and the Philadelphia Eagles last season. Both teams sat at 2-2 heading into their bye week (the same record the Falcons currently have). 

Following the bye, the Chargers went 9-4 to end the season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2022. Los Angeles used the early bye week to reflect on the young season and turn things around. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman ended up calling the bye “a gift from the football gods” as the team used it to retool their offense and to clean up penalties.

The Eagles, on the other hand, lost just one game (a game in which starting quarterback Jalen Hurts was injured) and went on to win the Super Bowl. 

Falcons head coach Raheem Morris noted that the Eagles looked like a completely different team than the one Atlanta beat 22-21 in Week 2 last season.

“[The Eagles] went from kind of getting disconnected up front [defensively] and being able to get off the ball and do some different things up front. That's something that coaches usually go back and can notice and look at on tape, but I think it's pretty normal to go out and do some of those types of things and come back with something different, new wrinkles, things of that nature,” Morris said.

Both the Eagles and Chargers sat at 2-2 heading into their Week 5 byes before ultimately turning it around and making playoff pushes. The Falcons will hope to do the same this season.

Morris said that even without a bye week, “you always want to study yourself,” and during Week 4’s 34-27 victory over the Washington Commanders, the Falcons put together their best offensive showing of the season. However, that does not mean the team is content with where they are at.

“You never want to say you don't want to add anything, because there's always something that you want to add that you've been thinking about. But it's definitely a chance to go back and look at everything that you've done from all three phases of the ball and find out what you can do better and what you can add to it or what you can take out [that] you don't like." Morris said. 

The most important part of the early bye in regards to the Falcons is that Atlanta got an extra week of rest for its currently injured players. 

Star corner A.J. Terrell injured his hamstring right before halftime in Week 2’s 22-6 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Terell has not seen the field since, however, with the bye, it’s been nearly a month since his injury, making it likely that he plays in Week 6 against the Buffalo Bills. 

Wide receiver Darnell Mooney hurt his shoulder during the first day of training camp. He would not return to the field until Week 2, and left the game early in Week 4 with hamstring issues. The early bye gives him a whole week to recuperate, and he is expected back against the Bills. 

Swing tackle Storm Norton, who is expected to play a big role with Kaleb McGary out for the season, also got an extra week of rest to return from an ankle injury he suffered during the offseason, which has kept him sidelined thus far this season. 

For years, an early bye has been seen as a disadvantage. With a roster getting healthier, extra time to evaluate the team, and data showing that early bye weeks may be a “gift from the football gods,” the Falcons may be better positioned for a playoff push than most expect them to be.